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Mafia XII: Bloodbath in Suwalki, a Prelude to WWII; Self-aligned player wins
Topic Started: Oct 14 2009, 09:08 PM (4,000 Views)
Rhadamanthus
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Abnar
Oct 17 2009, 08:16 PM
That's what a "red flag" is, RD. Something that should be paid attention to.

Anyone who provides shelter for mafiates is a possible mafiate themselves. I have the (admittedly misguided belief) that if I discourage the tactic long enough, no-voting will become obsolete in our community as it is in others I've played in. This leaves less refuge for the scum.
Well, if that's all you mean, then it is not such a big deal, but in my experience a red flag means an established problem, while a yellow signal generally means caution, and IMO would be more appropriate in this context. That is why a red flag struck me as an extremely suspicious statement.

And I agree that your tactic is quite misguided. Everyone provides shelter to possible mafiates. People in our community vote "no lynch" when they find it logically convincing and do not let themselves be dissuaded by broad generalizations. As I've explained there are plenty of other refuges for scum. If no one votes "no lynch" the scum will find other ways to take refuge, as they continually do. Also, your claim earlier that "no lynch" votes quickly end the day is not convincing to me, because in our games historically, "no lynch" never reaches enough votes to finish a day. And a bandwagon on "No lynch" would be just as telling as any other sort of bandwagon.
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Deleted User
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Unvote: TC

Vote: Anbar


The fact that you seem to bandwagoning me makes you suspicoius. You seem really intent on get anyone lynched. Of course this goes in your favor statistically if you are mafia, because there are a larger number of townies then mafia, and mostly likely a townie will get lynched. Plus you seem to want to get me out, since I have the most votes, and mafia will always try to vote with whoever has the largest vote count. You are a Nazi or a Russian, both who wished to kill and exploit my ancestors.
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Abnar
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the lurkiest of them all?
Rhadamanthus
Oct 17 2009, 08:23 PM
Well, if that's all you mean, then it is not such a big deal, but in my experience a red flag means an established problem, while a yellow signal generally means caution, and IMO would be more appropriate in this context. That is why a red flag struck me as an extremely suspicious statement.

And I agree that your tactic is quite misguided. Everyone provides shelter to possible mafiates. People in our community vote "no lynch" when they find it logically convincing and do not let themselves be dissuaded by broad generalizations. As I've explained there are plenty of other refuges for scum. If no one votes "no lynch" the scum will find other ways to take refuge, as they continually do. Also, your claim earlier that "no lynch" votes quickly end the day is not convincing to me, because in our games historically, "no lynch" never reaches enough votes to finish a day. And a bandwagon on "No lynch" would be just as telling as any other sort of bandwagon.
Thank you for the semantics lessons.

And I'm not misguided because no-lynch is a good option. It never is. I'm misguided for thinking you guys will come around eventually. =/
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Abnar
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the lurkiest of them all?
Atticus
Oct 17 2009, 08:32 PM
Unvote: TC

Vote: Anbar


The fact that you seem to bandwagoning me makes you suspicoius. You seem really intent on get anyone lynched. Of course this goes in your favor statistically if you are mafia, because there are a larger number of townies then mafia, and mostly likely a townie will get lynched. Plus you seem to want to get me out, since I have the most votes, and mafia will always try to vote with whoever has the largest vote count. You are a Nazi or a Russian, both who wished to kill and exploit my ancestors.
But of course you don't vote me after I vote you. You vote me after there's a semi-successful movement against me. So you're the one bandwagonning, not me.
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Al Araam
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Demigod of Death & Inactivity

If I've counted correctly, and there's a good chance that I haven't, the votes are as follows:
No Lynch: 2 (Myself, TC)
Atticus: 4 (Allesandra, Huesca, Abnar, Flumes)
Abnar: 2 (RD, Atticus)
TC: 1 (Quaon)
NH: 1 (Nag)
Nag: 1 (NH)
Al Araam: 1 (Esternarx)

Lebowski, T.O., and Telosan have yet to vote for whatever reason.

Telosan has made IC posts, but seems to be holding his vote in reserve here, which seems a little suspicious to me, but my experience with the psychology of Mafia games is somewhat limited. The way I understand it, it would be advantageous for someone who was worried that others would figure out they're mafia upon close inspection to wait until the vote totals near what is required for lynch or for the time to run down before registering their vote. That way, people are pretty set in their votes and there's little chance to change them. Then again, it could be that he simply hasn't had time to participate. We may never know. Leb and T.O., on the other hand, have made it clear that they're actively withholding their votes by voting for Hitler. That I find to be highly suspect. (Unless that counts as a formal no-lynch vote)

It also strikes me that a lot of accusations have been leveled by a relatively small amount of players, particularly Atticus and TC, though TC has now switched over to a vote of no-lynch. If my no-lynch vote is offensive, perhaps I'll have to give it some more thought and come back with a vote before the deadline. I still don't really follow Abnar's logic though. He acknowledges that in voting for anyone without some sort of special knowledge, we will probably end up lynching a townie. What else is there, really? I'm new to this. Perhaps someone could enlighten me.

Edit:
Also, I think Abnar is grasping at straws in claiming that Atticus is bandwagoning. I have my suspicions about Atticus for other reasons, but no red flags seem to be raised for you when others exchanged votes, and it has happened quite often already. I think perhaps this is just personal.
Edited by Al Araam, Oct 17 2009, 09:53 PM.
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Menhad
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ET2(IDW)
Last time I posted on the first day I was almost lynched.

Since I have no information or awesome intuition, I will refrain from condemning anyone. I'm going to let the dust settle before I make any sort of vote.

But I will say this, players who act like they have all the answers seem scummy to me.
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Abnar
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the lurkiest of them all?
I have 2 problems with the no-vote argument.

1: It is a vote to end the day early. If you don't want to vote, don't vote. But ending the day early limits discuassion, which only helps the mob.

2: It is usually based on the fact that there are more town than scum, therefore a town lynch is more likely. Problem is, probability isn't the only thing in play. We've got all day to talk, and by the end of the day, there's a lot of information out there that can give some pretty solid clues as to who is and isn't scum.

As you can see, the points are intertwined: The longer the day goes, the more information we get, and the better the chance of lynching scum.

You're right about my argument being weak I thought I had seen Atticus post sans-voting since I voted, but he hasn't. It was my mistake. I still find him suspicious for the reasons in my vote post, though, so I'm keeping my vote where it is.
Edited by Abnar, Oct 17 2009, 10:08 PM.
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Al Araam
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I see. Didn't think about it like that. If five people don't vote at all, as opposed to voting no-lynch, and the person with the most votes only has four, does that person still get lynched? For that matter, if we don't reach the 8 vote threshold for lynching, what happens?
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Abnar
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the lurkiest of them all?
Al Araam
Oct 17 2009, 10:18 PM
I see. Didn't think about it like that. If five people don't vote at all, as opposed to voting no-lynch, and the person with the most votes only has four, does that person still get lynched? For that matter, if we don't reach the 8 vote threshold for lynching, what happens?
If no majority is achieved before the deadline, a plurality is enough to lynch.
Edited by Abnar, Oct 17 2009, 10:23 PM.
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Rhadamanthus
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Al Araam
Oct 17 2009, 10:18 PM
I see. Didn't think about it like that. If five people don't vote at all, as opposed to voting no-lynch, and the person with the most votes only has four, does that person still get lynched? For that matter, if we don't reach the 8 vote threshold for lynching, what happens?
Generally if we don't reach the voting threshold and the timer runs, the person with the most votes is lynched. So for the mafia, not voting at all is an easy way to not implicate oneself if a townie is going to be lynched anyway. Of course, each mafia knows the identity of every member of his team, while townies don't have much information at all, so the mafia are basically playing with a marked deck, so to speak.
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Al Araam
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Demigod of Death & Inactivity

But a plurality that only takes into account those who have received votes? Or would a plurality of abstentions have the same effect as plurality of no-lynch votes?
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Abnar
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the lurkiest of them all?
Al Araam
Oct 17 2009, 10:39 PM
But a plurality that only takes into account those who have received votes? Or would a plurality of abstentions have the same effect as plurality of no-lynch votes?
Only counting received votes.
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Rhadamanthus
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Al Araam
Oct 17 2009, 10:39 PM
But a plurality that only takes into account those who have received votes? Or would a plurality of abstentions have the same effect as plurality of no-lynch votes?
A plurality of abstentions is nothing, because they aren't votes to count. If the group really does not want to lynch someone, they need at least a plurality of "no lynch" votes.
Edited by Rhadamanthus, Oct 17 2009, 10:43 PM.
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Al Araam
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Demigod of Death & Inactivity

So then there is undeniably a place for 'no-lynch' votes. Which means I'll have to actually make a decision before I withdraw my no-lynch vote. Which, I suppose, brings me full circle to the fact that I have no experience at this. I suppose I have a few more hours to mull things over.
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Rhadamanthus
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Al Araam
Oct 17 2009, 10:42 PM
So then there is undeniably a place for 'no-lynch' votes. Which means I'll have to actually make a decision before I withdraw my no-lynch vote. Which, I suppose, brings me full circle to the fact that I have no experience at this. I suppose I have a few more hours to mull things over.
Yes exactly.
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Abnar
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the lurkiest of them all?
Al Araam
Oct 17 2009, 10:42 PM
So then there is undeniably a place for 'no-lynch' votes. Which means I'll have to actually make a decision before I withdraw my no-lynch vote. Which, I suppose, brings me full circle to the fact that I have no experience at this. I suppose I have a few more hours to mull things over.
No, because there's no reason not to lynch unless there hasn't been sufficient discussion, which would only occur if no-lynch votes make the day end early.
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Al Araam
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That might be true. It may be a crutch I only need because I don't really know how the game goes yet.
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Abnar
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the lurkiest of them all?
Al Araam
Oct 17 2009, 11:13 PM
That might be true. It may be a crutch I only need because I don't really know how the game goes yet.
Exactly. Like I said, in gfames I've played with experienced players, no-voting is nonexistent.
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Tristan da Cunha
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Abnar
Oct 17 2009, 11:07 PM
Al Araam
Oct 17 2009, 10:42 PM
So then there is undeniably a place for 'no-lynch' votes. Which means I'll have to actually make a decision before I withdraw my no-lynch vote. Which, I suppose, brings me full circle to the fact that I have no experience at this. I suppose I have a few more hours to mull things over.
No, because there's no reason not to lynch unless there hasn't been sufficient discussion, which would only occur if no-lynch votes make the day end early.
A No-One vote is not a vote to end the day. The day will only end if any person accrues 8 votes against himself.

In this 15-player game where some people's participation is irregular, there is no chance whatsoever for a majority of 8 to move against any one person, so there is no chance that the day will end early. Your fears about the day ending early are irrational.

All we need to prevent a townie lynching is to make sure that No-One is the plurality, not the majority. That way, the day will have its full length, and no townie will be lynched. A townie lynching can only profit the mafia.

Atticus will turn out to be a townie, I called it. Statistically, it's nigh impossible to lynch a mafia on the first day, because the mafia can manipulate and coordinate votes based on superior information that the town doesn't possess.

Abnar
 
Exactly. Like I said, in gfames I've played with experienced players, no-voting is nonexistent.

Are you implying we're "inexperienced players"?

You sell RD short.

How do you know people aren't making a big deal of the No-One thing in order to test you and gain clues from your words and responses?

Al Araam
 
That might be true. It may be a crutch I only need because I don't really know how the game goes yet.

Feigning ignorance of how the game works must always draw suspicion. I'm not saying Al Araam is lying when he says he is confused... well, yes I am saying Araam is lying when he says he is confused. Nothing personal and nothing wrong with lying. This is a game for paranoids and hypochondriacs.

Whether this is or isn't Araam's first game, there is a possibility he was assigned a mafia night role.

Keep an eye on Araam is all I'm saying.
Edited by Tristan da Cunha, Oct 18 2009, 12:31 AM.
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Telosan
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Quote:
 
Lebowski, T.O., and Telosan have yet to vote for whatever reason.

Telosan has made IC posts, but seems to be holding his vote in reserve here, which seems a little suspicious to me, but my experience with the psychology of Mafia games is somewhat limited. The way I understand it, it would be advantageous for someone who was worried that others would figure out they're mafia upon close inspection to wait until the vote totals near what is required for lynch or for the time to run down before registering their vote. That way, people are pretty set in their votes and there's little chance to change them. Then again, it could be that he simply hasn't had time to participate. We may never know. Leb and T.O., on the other hand, have made it clear that they're actively withholding their votes by voting for Hitler. That I find to be highly suspect. (Unless that counts as a formal no-lynch vote)
I like to try changing my strategy every few games. Never really works well, but whatever.

You are all fighting eachother to much. Start listening (reading) a bit more.

And with that...

VOTE: Stalin

Leb and TO are inspiring.
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Abnar
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the lurkiest of them all?
Tristan da Cunha
Oct 18 2009, 12:11 AM
A No-One vote is not a vote to end the day. The day will only end if any person accrues 8 votes against himself.
This is not true, at least not in any game I've played before. If a majority of players formally votes for "no one" or "no lynch," the day ends immediately.
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Paradise
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Abnar
Oct 18 2009, 11:14 AM
Tristan da Cunha
Oct 18 2009, 12:11 AM
A No-One vote is not a vote to end the day. The day will only end if any person accrues 8 votes against himself.
This is not true, at least not in any game I've played before. If a majority of players formally votes for "no one" or "no lynch," the day ends immediately.
This is correct.
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Tristan da Cunha
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Abnar
Oct 18 2009, 11:14 AM
Tristan da Cunha
Oct 18 2009, 12:11 AM
A No-One vote is not a vote to end the day. The day will only end if any person accrues 8 votes against himself.
This is not true, at least not in any game I've played before. If a majority of players formally votes for "no one" or "no lynch," the day ends immediately.
Sorry, typo.

I meant to write: "The day will only end if No-One accrues 8 votes."

What are the chances of a majority of players voting No-one on the first day? Nil. Your fears of the day ending early are irrational.
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Abnar
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the lurkiest of them all?
Tristan da Cunha
Oct 18 2009, 12:14 PM
Abnar
Oct 18 2009, 11:14 AM
Tristan da Cunha
Oct 18 2009, 12:11 AM
A No-One vote is not a vote to end the day. The day will only end if any person accrues 8 votes against himself.
This is not true, at least not in any game I've played before. If a majority of players formally votes for "no one" or "no lynch," the day ends immediately.
Sorry, typo.

I meant to write: "The day will only end if No-One accrues 8 votes."

What are the chances of a majority of players voting No-one on the first day? Nil. Your fears of the day ending early are irrational.
They're only irrational because there's someone trying to dissuade the no-voters from their tactic. (Me)
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Tristan da Cunha
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Do you know how hard it is for 8 voters to merge their votes on one choice? No matter what anybody does or says or tries to persuade or dissuade, 8 votes will never happen. All we need is a plurality of No-one votes, not a majority, as I've already described above. Atticus is a townie, I called it.
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