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Soccer: Football/Soccer Anyone?; OOC Please
Topic Started: Jun 12 2009, 05:19 PM (4,093 Views)
Kasnyia
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Chairman of the Bank
Cricket anyone? :P
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

Ok, so I'm wrapping up the sixth and final series of international friendlies and just wanted to know if anyone wished to bring up any necessary changes before I start the various Continental Championships right after.

For example, I'll be changing a few names (North-West Afrika = Quinaranum, South-East Afrika = Tanganorium, Ziyer = Democratic Confederacy of Africa) and may knock out a couple of teams from active participation, depending on how the various regional maps get updated.

Anyone have anything they want/need me to look at and/or fix?
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New Harumf
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
I would very much like to do a baseball league, including a real draft. I have a great simulator I can use and give full statistics!
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

Ok, getting ready to start the Continental Championships. The randomly drawn hosts for each final game or final leg of each tournament are as follows:

Eleytheria-Duo (Americas)
Zolony (Africa)
Taiwan (Asia/Oceania)
Al-Arabiyya (Mid East)
Yshurak (Europe)

I'll have the first, intro post up either late tonight or tomorrow.
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

Just a quick update, but also a chance to get your opinions.

The Continental Championships are moving along, though I apologize for the on-off nature of posting the results. I'm doing my best to move along with the matches. However, I think it wouldn't be a bad idea to look ahead a bit and see if we can plan or decide upon a few things.

Firstly, in previous iterations of the Confederations Cup (remember, that's held after the Continental Championships and is where the different regional champions battle; it's also the last competition before World Cup qualifying and the World Cup itself) I simply chose the host nation by random. However, I was thinking that it may be worthwhile to have a vote, just like we had a vote for who would host the World Cup.

Similarly for the World Cup, I was thinking we could build upon suggestions made and keep the voting system, but add the conditions that nominees must be active players (however we wish to define 'active') and that there should be one from each confederation, i.e. one candidate nation from Europe, one from Asia/Oceania, one from Africa, etc.)

EDIT: I've also thought about implementing a more fluid ranking system, possibly even using the Elo rating system, while also maintaining the current all-time ranking table we already have.

Thoughts? Comments?
Edited by Porcu, Aug 6 2011, 09:51 AM.
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Telosan
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The Foremost Intellectual Badass
I think we discussed this before; didn't we say that the previous winner would host the following cup?
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

That was your suggestion, but I think others said they'd rather nominate nations and then vote each time.
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Aelius
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Norman Warlord
Also, who actually plays as California, anyway?
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

Technically I do. IC-wise, California is now 'Viroconium' and is a memberstate of the Euroveraminus Union. It's included simply because of the necessity of having an even and simple Confederation of the Americas.

As Kas already mentioned, the current field of teams is very much out of date and I'll be doing a good clean-up after the Continental Championships and subsequent Confederations Cup.
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Aelius
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Norman Warlord
By that point, England may be replaced by the Normans. We'll see. :P
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

Just keep your eyes open, as I'll definitely announce when I'll be starting that process. It'd be quite ironic if you have England collapse right before I start the World Cup qualifiers and (assuming England qualifies) have them advance through the tournament, eventually winning the Cup. :lol:
Edited by Porcu, Aug 7 2011, 10:33 PM.
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

Well, I've decided to go ahead and create a more accurate and fluid ranking system in addition to the all-time list already up. It'll be based off of/will be a near copy of the Elo rating system. I'll be posting again with the basics.
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

Alright, so...

The crux of the additional rating system will be the equation: R(n) = R(o) + KG (W - W(e)) and P = KG (W - W(e)) where,

R(n) = new team rating
R(o) = old team rating
K = weight index of tournament
G = number from index of goal differential
W = result of match
W(e) = expected result of match
P = points change

===

Index (K) of Various Tournaments:

- World Cup finals: 60
- Confederations Cup: 50
- Continental Championship: 40
- World Cup/Continental qualifiers: 30
- All other tournaments: 20
- Friendly matches: 10

Index (G) of Goal Differential:

- Draw or one goal difference: 1
- Two goal difference: (3/2)
- Three or more goal difference: (11 + N) / 8, where N is the goal difference

Index (W) of Match Result:

- Win: 1
- Draw: (1/2)
- Loss: 0

Index (W(e)) of Expected Match Result:

- W(e) = 1 / (10^((-dr)/400) + 1) , where dr equals the difference in the teams' ratings

===

I only have two points to bring up, hopefully for discussion. Firstly, should we add another constant that reflects the relative strength of the different Confederations, i.e. Europe, Africa, Asia/Oceania? For instance, maybe since Europe has so many teams it could be that it's just that much more difficult to win the European Championship or to qualify out of Europe for the World Cup Finals, compared to Africa or the Mid East. Therefore, an additional constant could show this by giving Europe the value of 0.7, versus the value of 0.4 or 0.3 for Africa or the Mid East. Thoughts?

Secondly, would anyone prefer I utilize the currently allotted points in the all-time rating list as a starting point for this second rating system? The default I'd use is zero, or an equal level for everyone at the start. Thoughts? Preferences?
Edited by Porcu, Sep 10 2011, 12:00 AM.
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

Bump...
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Aelius
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Norman Warlord
I do kinda like the idea of considering relative strength in countries, but I think the current points system could stand to be reset, with a caveat that currently high-ranked nations should start with a slight advantage in the polls, but nothing that couldn't be overtaken.

Also, perhaps remove previous results as time goes by, to keep the rankings current. Like, after the current World Cup, for example, clear out the results from the previous World Cup that contribute to the rankings, but leave all the tournaments since that one in to factor in. Keep doing that for each subsequent match/tournament and its predecessor.
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Telosan
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The Foremost Intellectual Badass
The points shouldn't be reset entirely, since that erases all the victories thus far. Maybe starting values can be awarded. Everyone starts with 0, but if you won a tournament before, you get an extra 10 points, for example.

As for the erasing of previous results from here on out, just straight out erasing victory points isn't very realistic. I see what you mean, though, Lans. The winner of the previous World Cup may not necessarily be as skilled (or lucky) the next time around, especially given the time gap. Team members can retire, be injured, coaches change, etc. Instead of a blunt erasing of tournament victory points prior to the next tournament, what about a continuous decay over time? For example, say Venice wins the World Cup. From then on, the total victory points from that (listed here as 60) would decline over time, this decay only being offset by incoming points for continued victories. In this case, if Venice was a consistently high quality team, they deserve to keep their ranking and the points will follow them into the next cup. On the other hand, if Venice did not win enough points to offset and balance the continuous decay, their overall point value goes down.

Porcu's equation, R(n) = R(o) + KG (W - W(e)), can be simplified to R(n) = R(o) + (P) because of his second equation: P = KG (W - W(e)).

Simplistically (because I despise math), my proposal with a decay would look something like:

R(n) = R(o) - (T) + (P)
T =~= 6(2 matches)

Where T is Telo's Variable, which is yet to be definitively set, and represents the decay. Because there is no concept of time to work with here, I'm thinking that matches would have to set our pace. A match would be any game, in or out of any tournament. Any country with a negative ranking (obtained by losing enough matches and points consistently) would be immune to this decay because they're already a rockbottom team.
Edited by Telosan, Sep 10 2011, 12:07 AM.
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

I think an important decision to make would be whether we would like to have two ranking indexes or just one. I'm not partial to either idea and I'm glad I've gotten an opinion from you two. We can easily modify the existing rating system to include a 'decay' variable if we wish, as well as an additional variable that reflects a team's winning or losing by adding points or subtracting points respectively.

I'm gathering that it may be easier to simply modify the rating index we have, so I'll work with that. Lans, how much of an advantage are you proposing that high-ranked teams get, and what do you mean by high-ranked? Does winning the World Cup provide more of an advantage compared to winning a Continental Championship? If so, what values do you propose we assign to each? Also, how far back do we wish to go?

My biggest concern comes when considering the (dr) value; that is, the value of the difference in ratings between the teams playing. It's imperative that we firmly establish what the new ratings would be.
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Aelius
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Norman Warlord
Not a big advantage by any means, maybe about 25 at most for winning the WC, and 10 for winning a Continental title. I'd like for it to be possible for teams to come out of nowhere and have a legit shot at the Cup, like Kandy did last time. I guess a good question is how much of an impact do the ratings have on a team's actual performance?
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

I believe I've already answered that, but it's a good question and I'll outline it again.

EDIT: Yeah, I did, but only briefly and considering how many changes have already been made I understand how no one knows for sure.

In short, I use the PC game FIFA 08 to run games one at a time and produce match results. I've paired club teams in the game with national teams here on the forum. Teams in the game are rated using a star system that ranges from 0.5 stars (min) to 4.5 stars (max), in 0.5 increments. The very first pairing was completely random with the help of a number generator, but since then I've adjusted the teams nations are assigned only after each occurrence of the World Cup. You can think of this as a 'seasonal shuffle', as currently there is a cycle of tournaments and friendly matches that goes: (1) Series of friendly internationals, (2) Continental Championships, (3) Confederations Cup, and (4) World Cup, before starting back again with another series of friendly internationals. The only addition to this is that I'll be adding in another series of friendly matches between the Confederations Cup and the World Cup.

Now, this reassignment is not completely random each time. National teams that have performed well recently (during the last 'season') are given a better pool of teams from which to be assigned. However, though there is great variation between club teams, I only draw from teams which have ratings of 3 stars or better. Therefore, there is not a great difference between the "best" team and the "worst" team, and certainly not a difference that is insurmountable. For instance, if you take a look at the current standings in the european championships you will find Helmetia at #1, Quaon at #2, the Teutons at #3, and Venice at #4. Now, Helmetia is currently assigned a 4 star team, Quaon also is assigned a 4 star team, but the Teutons are assigned a 3.5 star team, and Venice is assigned a 4.5 star team.

So while the ratings on the forum have no bearing on a team's performance at the present, they do have a considerable amount of significance when it comes to determining how many points a team gains or loses after a match with a specific opponent. At least, that's my hope in implementing a mechanism by which teams that win are given additional points, while teams that lose are deducted points, and we get a better picture of relative strength between national teams.
Edited by Porcu, Sep 10 2011, 01:26 AM.
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Catholic Europe
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Catholic Brazil would certainely field a time for any kind of World Cup competition.
Edited by Catholic Europe, Dec 20 2011, 04:21 PM.
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

Fantastic!

Yeah, like I've said before, I'll be updating the list of teams as soon as these Continental Championships are wrapped up (I'm trying hard to get it done before the new year - and the start of classes). I'll be happy to add in Catholic Brazil to the Americas.
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Catholic Europe
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Porcu
Dec 20 2011, 04:26 PM
Fantastic!

Yeah, like I've said before, I'll be updating the list of teams as soon as these Continental Championships are wrapped up (I'm trying hard to get it done before the new year - and the start of classes). I'll be happy to add in Catholic Brazil to the Americas.
Cool! Thankyou! :D
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Union
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Pyrenees Republic
My bad, Porcu! Thanks for the update.
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Aelius
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Norman Warlord
Wow, England's doing really well.

FYI, when were you planning on having the World Cup happen? England's team will still exist by itself through the Cup, after that point, it'd be a merged Norman team.
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Porcu
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"Work is the curse of the drinking classes."

*Wipes brow*

Ok, Continental Championships are over, woo! Throughout this week, I hope to prepare for the Confederations Cup and to start editing the list of nations by scratching defunct nations and adding new ones (preferably people that are interested in having their nations participate). Is anyone interested in hosting the Confederations Cup? This will entail making a few posts, FYI. If no one is interested, I'll just randomly assign the tournament to a host nation.

Lans, the Confederations Cup is the other major tournament before the World Cup. There is a period of international friendlies in between each major tournament, but the World Cup isn't too far off. I'll keep your team named "English Republic" as long as you want me to, and whenever you wish me to change it let me know. :)
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