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| Vampires vs Werewolves (Town-Win); An NSWR "Mafia" Game | |
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| Topic Started: Jan 26 2009, 04:05 PM (4,898 Views) | |
| New Harumf | Feb 2 2009, 12:46 PM Post #251 |
Bloodthirsty Unicorn
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OK, let's get this over with: Vote: Huesca |
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| Union | Feb 2 2009, 01:37 PM Post #252 |
Pyrenees Republic
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There is no logic whatsoever in lynching me. You guys are voting for me because I may become a cultist at some point. As of right now, however, I'm still on your side. Am I stupid in thinking it would be better o lynch a cultist, rather than someone with the potential to become one? The reason I'm asking for doctor protection is because if I get converted, it's actually worse than just losing someone, because that means the cult grows stronger. We don't know, right now, if we have eliminated any factions - however I think we can guess we did. What are the odds that two factions target someone who cannot be converted, or fail to kill someone? The fact that nothing happened last night is much more telling than if something had, in this way. The first night someone was converted, and we knew about it. This night... nothing happened. We should wait, until we know what the "eerie fog" actually means, rather than lynching me because I might be a cultist two turns from now. We should focus on eliminating the current cultists, rather than the man they may convert. Dead cultists, after all, do not convert. Honestly, I do not know who to vote for, though I would look for whoever it is that keeps trying to kill me, because a dead townie is a victory for the cultists. To this end, I vote Paradise Edited by Union, Feb 2 2009, 01:39 PM.
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| flumes | Feb 2 2009, 02:53 PM Post #253 |
CLEVELAND ROCKS!
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E said one person was transformed on the first night... Hence the thinking that him not saying anything would mean no one was bitten..... Before Huesca made that last post, I was going to actually unvote him and go with Allesandra who has vanished since saying she to was a vanilla townie... That last post though makes me think Huesca was indeed the one transformed, or in fact lying all along. |
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| Rhadamanthus | Feb 2 2009, 02:54 PM Post #254 |
Legitimist
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Telosan, you are mistaken. Esternarx told us after the first night that I had been protected, and that one person had been converted. This time he told us nothing except the "eerie fog." I don't know what the eerie fog means; I think we have a very large uncertainty now as to how many cultists there are and there distribution. That said, I realize now that we made a slight mistake yesterday; since we all agreed to vote on Raf so quickly (and rightly so, we did good there), we didn't get a chance to see who the rest of the players would vote for, so we are largely limited to first round information. Huesca does seem suspicious, especially as he was one of the only people who came online during yesterday's short day but did not vote (the other was, IIRC, Raf, who we lynched rightfully), but remember that I used Huesca's hunch to identify Raf, so I'm not entirely ready to vote for him. That said, he seems to be our only suspect so far; anybody want to further explicate your case against him? |
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| flumes | Feb 2 2009, 02:55 PM Post #255 |
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CLEVELAND ROCKS!
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Also, I'm kinda wondering if this erie fog is some special affect given to someone (almost surely scum) to hide a transformation.... That is purely speculation though. E, your lack of info for the game is killing me! |
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| flumes | Feb 2 2009, 03:01 PM Post #256 |
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CLEVELAND ROCKS!
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After re-reading this all, I'm going to go with my hunch on Allesandra. She has disappeared, making me think she is lying low. Huesca has at least made some defenses and was in fact the key to the big lynch yesterday as RD said. Doctors protection for him might not be a bad idea... Unvote-Huesca Vote-Allesandra |
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| Rhadamanthus | Feb 2 2009, 03:04 PM Post #257 |
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Legitimist
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I expressed reluctance to lynch Huesca, but I would not exonerate him yet. If he is a cultist and we convince the doctor to protect him, then we've shot ourselves in the foot. |
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| flumes | Feb 2 2009, 03:10 PM Post #258 |
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CLEVELAND ROCKS!
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That is true, I really am convinced he is clean at this point though. If you go back to where he said I'm a vanilla townie, right after that Allesandra immediately said "me too." Since that point, in the days that have followed, Huesca has made points, and not hidden from attention. Allesandra on the other hand is completely gone, and has just as good of a chance to be scum at this point since she came out too. The whole "erie fog" thing is the X factor. On one hand it could just be E playing up the scenery, which I tend to think... On the other hand it could be some affect. Either way you look at it, letting Allesandra or Huesca live is risky. I think at this point though more evidence points to Allesandra then Huesca. |
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| New Harumf | Feb 2 2009, 03:23 PM Post #259 |
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
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Why I think Allesandra is scum: 1. Silence 2. E's basic nature Why I think Huesca is guilty: 1. Inconsistant ramblings 2. Voted for TC first round 3. Voted for NO ONE in the rapid vote, but had the chance 4. Continues to point at Paradise That's twice as many reasons to vote for H over A, plus Allesandra did NOT vote for TC in the first round. My vote stands. Also, the doctor should be damn sure who he protects is neither scum or converted, ergo in the absense of absolute knowledge, I'd rather NOT see the doctor protect Huesca should he last through this day. Why are we hearing nothing from the Police, or are we, and don't know it! Just FYI: first day. TC(innocent): (Raf, Lebowski, Telosan, Quaon, Huesca). second day, Raf(guilty): (RD, Paradise, Quaun, Flumes, NH, Telosan) In my mind, this pins down Lebowski, Allesandra and Huesca as being on the wrong side 100% of the time. In my mind, this pins down RD, Paradise, NH and Flumes as being on the right side 100% of the time. In my mind, Telosan and Quaon have been 50-50. Neither good nor bad. TC, Raf and E are dead. Am I forgetting anyone?? Edited by New Harumf, Feb 2 2009, 03:40 PM.
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| Rhadamanthus | Feb 2 2009, 03:32 PM Post #260 |
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Legitimist
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Harumf, your post reminded me of something. Huesca is voting for Paradise; Allesandra voted Paradise in the first round. Might voting Paradise be a cult pattern? |
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| New Harumf | Feb 2 2009, 03:43 PM Post #261 |
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
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Looks that way. Oh, and forgotten on my list: Menhad. Never voting. Never talking. Very suspicious. |
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| Rhadamanthus | Feb 2 2009, 03:47 PM Post #262 |
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Legitimist
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NH, I think you are right that Huesca and Allesandra look like our two main targets right now, and I think your analysis is good. In retrospect, I wish we took yesterday slower, so that we could have registered votes from the no-shows. That said, what do you think about us voting for Huesca or Allesandra this time, and since our cop should still be alive, he can hopefully investigate the other over night? |
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| Allesandra | Feb 2 2009, 03:53 PM Post #263 |
Only Girl Actively Participating in Threads
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If you guys wanna vote for me, fine. I promise it'll be a loss for the town, though. If you actually *read* back through the posts at what I've said, you might catch what I mean. Edit: Why is it E's nature to make a bad guy? And I usually don't vote for people because you guys consider it bandwagonning and would consider it scum moves anyway. Edited by Allesandra, Feb 2 2009, 03:54 PM.
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| flumes | Feb 2 2009, 03:57 PM Post #264 |
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CLEVELAND ROCKS!
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Lebowski is absent too.... I still think Allesandra is a safer bet then Huesca.... My main reason for that goes back to my original gameplan. The cult is going to try to hide. We could potentially still have two cults of 1 right now! The town has done absolutely nothing to scare the quiet ones from coming out and talking, all we have done is lynch the flip-floppers... Sure we have done alright with that, but we need these silent ones to get out and open up. The flip flop strategy only makes sense with voting blocks, which we aren't even sure we have yet. With the makeup of this game, I think we are better off hitting the quiet guys from the get go. Allesandra being one of them who has been consistent with that throughout. |
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| flumes | Feb 2 2009, 03:58 PM Post #265 |
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CLEVELAND ROCKS!
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All I remember of you when I read through is the claim to be vanilla.... Maybe I missed something someone else will see. |
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| Rhadamanthus | Feb 2 2009, 04:08 PM Post #266 |
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Legitimist
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Allesandra, fair points. I see where you are going with this. Flumes: Why do you say we only lynch the flip-floppers. Its true that TC was one, but Raf never flip-flopped. He voted TC the whole time first round, and didn't vote second round. Note also that he was not one of the "quiet ones" but was a vampire. You seem to be operating on the principle that scum would find it uniquely advantageous to be quiet. TC operated on this assumption too first round. Actually there is no reason for that to be true. Scum seek to blend in; that can mean being loud, being quiet, either, or both, depending on the behavior of the town players. I think Huesca is still one of our better targets. Perhaps, though, we should scrutinize lebowski or Menhad. FWIW, Quaon seems really out of it, game-wise, what with that "Nag" vote yesterday, so I'm not as suspicious of him as I was on day 1. |
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| Paradise | Feb 2 2009, 04:39 PM Post #267 |
Resident bureaucrat
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Is it true that Allesandra stated to be a plain townie in day 1? I can't remember. In my Excel table, I listed Allesandra as "suspicious" for his day 1 behavior and Huesca as "probably cult-aligned". Here is what I think happened since day 1. You are free to provide your own scenario if you want, you can even modify mine: Day 1: - Huesca and (possibliy) Allesandra claim to be plain townies, that is, people who are primary targets for the Cult; - TC claims to be vigilante; - TC is lynched because he acted stupidly and well, there was certainly an incentive for the Cult to lynch a so-proclaimed vigilante. Night 1: - Raf tries to attack RD, who is protected by the Doctor (see below for more info); - The werewolf master successfully converts Huesca or (maybe) Allesandra based on the information he got on day 1. Day 2: - Raf is (quickly) lynched because he clearly pushed for the the lynch of TC (the vigilante) on day 1; - Huesca is considered another viable choice for a lynch. Night 2: - 1) Likely hypothesis: Esternarx decided we wouldn't know what happened on that night; - 2) Other possible hypothesis: Nothing really happened. If that's the case, there are two sub-hypothesis we can devevelop: - 2.1) It is possible that a Town-role created by Esternarx prevents the Cult from attacking during the night. This would likely be a one-time ability so if the fog repeats itself on night 3 we will know this sub-hypothesis is not valid; - 2.2) It is also possible that, because we have probably eradicated the vampires (see below), the two werewolves decided to do nothing. I don't know why they would actually do that and I do find this unlikely, but this is a possibility. Explanation for Raf and the eradication of the vampires: Now, I believe the vampires are eradicated. I think Raf is too smart to attack "proclaimed" plain townies, because he knows they would become viable targets for the next lynch. So he tried to attack a strong player, RD. If RD had not been protected by the doctor he would be either dead or a vampire right now. Here's my input for today, I can't think of anything else. EDIT: Oh and I forgot my vote Vote: Huesca Edited by Paradise, Feb 2 2009, 04:45 PM.
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| Union | Feb 2 2009, 05:25 PM Post #268 |
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Pyrenees Republic
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I did not abstain from voting for Rafzakael. I posted at " Yesterday, 10:33 AM " that I would reiterate my suspicion on Raf, but refrain from voting for now. At "Yesterday, 1:01 PM" RD made the first vote for Raf, using the logic I had pointed out the first night. Raf had the necessary numbers of votes for a lynch at "Yesterday, 4:03 PM". So while I am sorry I was not logged in during those fateful three hours, this is by no means evidence that I did not want to vote for Raf, and had voting actually gone on longer, instead of rushing through it like we're trying to do so now, I would have revoted for him. Now, as I said in my first post today, it is more than likely that the vampires have been eliminated, leaving us with two or three wolves, though I think the number is two because we were informed last time a conversion occurred. I remain a vanilla townie, and it would make much more sense to go after the two people who ARE wolves, than after townies who may become them. Why? That should be pretty obvious. I have no real idea who to vote for, other than defend myself, but for the sake of the town I'm going to request that at the very least we SLOW DOWN and DISCUSS rather than continually jumping on the bandwagon. I will UNVOTE: PARADISE for now. Edited by Union, Feb 2 2009, 05:33 PM.
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| New Harumf | Feb 2 2009, 05:31 PM Post #269 |
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
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I do think we need to slow this down. I want to hear from Menhad and Quaun. Unvote: Huesca |
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| Paradise | Feb 2 2009, 05:40 PM Post #270 |
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Resident bureaucrat
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This doesn't matter if you were a werewolf.
You claim you're still a townie. This is only a claim, we have no evidence you are still a townie. If you know who are the "real" werewolves, please tell us. |
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| Menhad | Feb 2 2009, 05:46 PM Post #271 |
ET2(IDW)
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Sorry, I swear I've been working on my Senior Project. As to who to vote for. I still want to at least put Allesandra's feet to the fire. Vote: Allesandra |
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| Union | Feb 2 2009, 05:47 PM Post #272 |
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Pyrenees Republic
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I have no way to know who the werewolves are, only who I am. And I am not a werewolf. Lynching me is not better than lynching a werewolf. Lynching townies because they might be werewolves either now, or eventually in the future, is a surefire path to town lost. A townie is still a townie, and not yet a cultist. If I can get doctor protection, I can stay a townie, which is why I asked for it. |
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| Allesandra | Feb 2 2009, 05:52 PM Post #273 |
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Only Girl Actively Participating in Threads
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Menhad, if you didn't read my earlier post, I don't much care. I've been as busy as you, thus why I didn't vote much. During the night games, I've seen Huesca and Telosan stay on for a long period of time, along with RD and NH. Of the four of them, one's gotta be the cop, while the others are probably cult members. Raf could've attacked somebody before he died, and the werewolf could've failed in changing someone. We don't really know. E, hiding info from us, makes it suspenseful that way. I personally think Huesca's already one, and he's just trying to make us think he's not one. I mean, we didn't lynch him day one or two. So the cults have had plenty of opportunity to get him already. I'm leaning towards Huesca, Telosan or NH at this point. Edited by Allesandra, Feb 2 2009, 06:11 PM.
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| Rhadamanthus | Feb 2 2009, 06:09 PM Post #274 |
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Legitimist
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Good post, Allesandra. Also, my intuition matches your quoted statement here. |
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| Telosan | Feb 2 2009, 06:16 PM Post #275 |
The Foremost Intellectual Badass
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We don't know if this was Raf. If it was, then we have destroyed the Vampire cult. If it wasn't, then there is still one werewolf, one vampire. I reaffirm my vote for Huesca because he was quiet until he was called out on it. Then, he's been posting more, but not as much as those of us who've been posting the entire time. He could be doing this to avoid suspicion. Killing the normal townies is not a bad idea. We prevent the cults from gaining anymore people, kind of like the cut of the water supply strategy. If they can't grow, then we can pin them down easier. Then an innocent isn't possibly a cultist the next day. While having some extra townies may be good to catch a few bullets for us, they are also equally harmful as helpful. Cold calculation, but they are completely expendable. My saying this is going to sound scummy, but without the townies we'd likely be better off. Then it's a clear cut, you're dead situation. Allesandra came on to say that it'd be very regrettable to the town if we lynched her. TC said this and it turned out to be true. She could also be making a play off of this very fact. While we shouldn't discount her, I feel Huesca is a greater risk. He has not claimed to be anything special past a townie, which in itself can harm us. Again, I reaffirm my vote for Huesca, but do agree on slowing down to consider this. Should Huesca fall into a danger zone before we consider ourselves ready for a decision, I will recall my vote to buy more time. |
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