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| Jambalai Island Mafia (Town Win); Game Three | |
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| Topic Started: Jan 15 2009, 09:27 PM (3,167 Views) | |
| Rafzakael | Jan 22 2009, 07:07 PM Post #201 |
Beelzebub
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Paradise, if he is mafia, is remarkably shrewd. He didn't bandwagon in the slightest on day 1, and actually held off on lynching day 2, even though he wouldn't have been accused of badwagonning because he got his vote in early. It ain't paradise. About Lebowski we can't say, "we don't know anything, so he must be mafia." Doesn't work. All of that said, I don't have a vote yet, guess I'll just observe. |
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| Paradise | Jan 22 2009, 07:55 PM Post #202 |
Resident bureaucrat
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There is something I don't get right now. Why Esternarx was killed by the Mafia? What did he do to deserve such treatment? Who could profit from this death? On day 1, Esternarx voted TC (like many others). On day 2, he was the ONLY ONE to vote NH. Did NH kill him to protect himself on day 3? If I was mafiate, I would have killed either Raf or Paradise because they're the only ones right now analyzing meticulously the situation. Killing Esternarx would give me nothing. Why would I kill Esternarx? There are two reasons I can think that could explain why Esternarx was killed: 1) It was an act of (blind) revenge, that would mean NH is mafiate; 2) It was a completely random kill, in that case that would fit Flumes' behavior. Flumes is the only player who is constantly inconsistent. That would imply that Flumes was part of a huge set-up on day 2 to lynch Telosan. Is this possible? Hmmm... So right now here's what I think of the standing players: 1. NH: I don't see NH killing Esternarx for revenge and risks exposing his identity. This guy is too smart for that. My guess is NH is NOT mafiate; 2. Raf: this guy could probably create a set-up on Day 2 to mislead the townies. Problem is: what would he gain to kill Esternarx? I don't see Raf making a random kill and he had absolutely no reason for revenge. My guess is Raf is NOT mafiate; 3. Lebowski: he never voted and never argued. I consider him suspicious; 4. Flumes: This guy is the most unpredictable player in the game, I would certainly see him killing Esternarx randomly. Suspicious; 5. Menhad: I don't see him killing randomly Esternarx and he had no reason for revenge either. Probably NOT mafiate. EDIT: I will vote Lebowski this round and, if necessary, Flumes next round. This should ensure our victory. Vote Lebowski Edited by Paradise, Jan 22 2009, 07:59 PM.
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| flumes | Jan 22 2009, 08:21 PM Post #203 |
CLEVELAND ROCKS!
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Heh it's certainly possible I killed him, that is something I would try to pull off, almost TC like... I didn't though... I'm a townie. I will go with Lebowski now, because he is just dead silent... After that though, Paradise your getting my vote... The only thing that scares me is that NH did set this up....... But also guys, we're assuming that the mafiate knew he was a mafia guy. From the very limited understanding I have of this game, if he hadn't discovered the other remaining mafiate, they wouldn't have known he was one when they killed him. I'll go silent but deadly for now... Unvote: Paradise Vote: Lebowski |
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| Paradise | Jan 22 2009, 08:34 PM Post #204 |
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Resident bureaucrat
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Do you imply that NH is smart enough to play "dumb" and kill Esternarx, knowing that we would consider him too smart to do that and therefore exclude him from the possibility of being mafiate? :huh: It seems a little far-fetched. At this point, we should rather play a chess game... |
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| Menhad | Jan 22 2009, 08:36 PM Post #205 |
ET2(IDW)
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Well, after a good deal of thinking, it is Flumes last post that has convinced me to vote for him. He is still trying pin this on NH, and his seemingly randomness (is that a word?) would fit the bill for our final mafia Leb be quite, but I don't see him doing this. Also we have to consider that the final mafia may not have know that E was the spy. Vote: Flumes Edited by Menhad, Jan 22 2009, 08:48 PM.
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| Rafzakael | Jan 22 2009, 08:51 PM Post #206 |
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Beelzebub
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We need to take some more time on this one, think it through. We only have one more lynch after this or the mafia wins. Start of day 3: 5 town, 1 mafia Then, assuming we screw up, another townie dies tonight Start of day 4: 3 town, 1 mafia We screw that one up, and it's over Start of day 5: 1 town, 1 mafia (Mathematically impossible for town to win) EDIT: Unless the Doc makes a clutch save to give us a third lynch. Edited by Rafzakael, Jan 22 2009, 08:52 PM.
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| Paradise | Jan 22 2009, 09:04 PM Post #207 |
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Resident bureaucrat
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Maybe flumes is mafiate. To the cop: - If Lebowski is lynched, investigate flumes; - If flumes is lynched, investigate Lebowski. I think I've figured out who is the cop, but I don't want to give any tips here. The cop should reveal himself now so that the doctor can protect him for the night. I will be able to confirm his identity. Scenario 1: Lebowski is lynched on day 3 but he was not mafiate, flumes is investigated and found to be mafiate Then the cop will reveal the results of his investigation, flumes will be lynched on day 4 and the townies will win. Scenario 2: flumes is lynched on day 3 but he was not mafiate, Lebowski is investigated and found to be mafiate Same than Scenario 1, except now we lynch Lebowski on day 4. Scenario 3: Lebowski is lynched on day 3 but he was not mafiate, flumes is investigated and found NOT to be mafiate We will see what to do in that case. Scenario 4: flumes is lynched on day 3 but he was not mafiate, Lebowski is investigated and found NOT to be mafiate We will see what to do in that case. EDIT: I edited my post because it was possible with the information I gave to find out who the cop was. Sorry... Edited by Paradise, Jan 22 2009, 09:09 PM.
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| Rafzakael | Jan 22 2009, 09:16 PM Post #208 |
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Beelzebub
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You're flirting with scummy here. |
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| lebowski2123 | Jan 22 2009, 09:22 PM Post #209 |
Resident?
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I request that the cop investigate me, and declare my innocence. Then the doctor should protect him, and the town deliberate. For now I'm going to vote for flumes, since he was pretty easily swayed by paradise about me, but i'm open to changing it if more scenarios are brought forward. As for Paradise's excel sheet, I urge you fellas to not kill me, it would be a mistake which would bring us too close to an auto mafia win for my liking. I haven't had the time to post often, been busy at the office :P . EDIT: Forgot to post my vote VOTE: FLUMES Edited by lebowski2123, Jan 22 2009, 09:22 PM.
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| Allesandra | Jan 22 2009, 09:25 PM Post #210 |
Only Girl Actively Participating in Threads
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Paradise: 1 Lebowski:2 (2 for lynch) Flumes:2 (2 for lynch) |
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| Paradise | Jan 22 2009, 09:31 PM Post #211 |
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Resident bureaucrat
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The doctor is still alive. Right now, the mafiate can guess who the cop is and kill him on the next night. That would be a huge loss. We need to have the doctor protect the cop. Edited by Paradise, Jan 22 2009, 09:33 PM.
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| Paradise | Jan 22 2009, 09:34 PM Post #212 |
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Resident bureaucrat
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Flumes retracted his vote for me. It is: Lebowski: 2 (Paradise, flumes) Flumes: 2 (Lebowski, Menhad) |
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| Allesandra | Jan 22 2009, 09:36 PM Post #213 |
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Only Girl Actively Participating in Threads
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OOC: But NH didn't. Paradise: 1 (NH) Lebowski: 2 (Paradise, flumes) Flumes: 2 (Lebowski, Menhad) Edited by Allesandra, Jan 22 2009, 09:41 PM.
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| Paradise | Jan 22 2009, 09:39 PM Post #214 |
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Resident bureaucrat
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Oh, I didn't even see that NH voted for me... |
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| Rafzakael | Jan 22 2009, 09:54 PM Post #215 |
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Beelzebub
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Okay, flumes has 2 against him, time to bust this out. I'm the cop, I investigated flumes last night, flumes is innocent. |
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| Rafzakael | Jan 22 2009, 09:56 PM Post #216 |
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Beelzebub
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... Goddamnit. You've got to be mafia, extending the hell out of both days. Explain this now or I'm pushing for you to get lynched. EDIT: Paradise, deleting our post, are we? Edited by Rafzakael, Jan 22 2009, 09:57 PM.
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| Paradise | Jan 22 2009, 09:59 PM Post #217 |
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Resident bureaucrat
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Sorry I wrote my post BEFORE reading yours. I knew you were the cop (before your claim), so I read all your posts and came on this: "About Lebowski we can't say, "we don't know anything, so he must be mafia." Doesn't work." I assumed you meant: "Don't kill Lebowski". I thought I deleted my post fast enough, too bad. Now that we know it is not flumes, it has to be Lebowski. I'm not retracting my vote. Edited by Paradise, Jan 22 2009, 10:01 PM.
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| Paradise | Jan 22 2009, 10:23 PM Post #218 |
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Resident bureaucrat
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Ok I gotta go to sleep, here are the roles I think you guys have: Raf: cop NH: vigilante (or assassin, I don't care) Menhad: Doctor or mafiate Lebowski: Doctor or mafiate Flumes: Doctor or townie Paradise: Townie Right now I'm retracting my vote for Lebowski: Unvote: Lebowski If we kill the doctor now, Raf is dead. To checkmate the mafiate, we vote a no lynch today and let Raf investigate Menhad or Lebowski during the night. We can then pinpoint exactly the mafiate and lynch him tomorrow. Vote: No One I know, the real doctor may end up dead after the night, but at least the cop will be safe. Gotta go now, I work tomorrow morning. Edited by Paradise, Jan 22 2009, 10:23 PM.
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| Menhad | Jan 22 2009, 10:28 PM Post #219 |
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ET2(IDW)
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Well, if Raf is really who he says he is then I have no choice in changing my vote. Unvote: Flumes Vote: Leb |
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| lebowski2123 | Jan 22 2009, 10:34 PM Post #220 |
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Resident?
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And menhad, your refusal to go along with the idea of letting raf gather intel doesn't seem suspicious? I'm going to have to go ahead and change my vote to counter this aggression UNVOTE: FLUMES VOTE: NO ONE I'm not afraid to see what Raf can find out about me, are you? Edited by lebowski2123, Jan 22 2009, 10:35 PM.
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| Menhad | Jan 22 2009, 10:38 PM Post #221 |
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ET2(IDW)
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I posted pretty soon after Paradise, and I didn't have much time to mull his over, but I guess it makes sense. Also Raf who all have you investigated? Unvote: Leb Vote:No one |
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| Rafzakael | Jan 22 2009, 11:19 PM Post #222 |
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Beelzebub
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I hate to say it, but this makes sense. THIS is a well-reasoned no-vote. NH is definitely the Vig. If he were mafia, and he were making a false roleclaim, the real vig would have counterclaimed by now, and we'd have lynched NH. Paradise I really believe is Town. No (sane) Mafiate votes for two of his own. However, in case he is faking, a no lynch today will still let us kill him. Flumes is definitely Town, I've verified this. Our suspects: Menhad Lebowski The game plan: Day 3: 5 Town, 1 Mafia, No lynch Night 3: 5 Town, 1 Mafia, I investigate Lebowski, Doc protects me, Either nobody or a townie dies. Day 4: 4-5 Town, 1 Mafia, Lynch Lebowski or Menhad (depending on the result of my investigation). This should end the game. IF IT DOES NOT: Night 4: 3-4 Town, 1 Mafia, Either Nobody or a townie dies. Day 5: 2-3 Town, 1 Mafia. Lynch Paradise for being scum and a liar. GG. Does this sound like a solid plan to everyone? Please note, this whole plan hinges on the Doc protecting me tonight. If I can't get you the result, you're down to a 50/50 (Or less if Paradise is lying) chance of winning. VOTE: NO LYNCH Edited by Rafzakael, Jan 22 2009, 11:21 PM.
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| Rafzakael | Jan 22 2009, 11:24 PM Post #223 |
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Beelzebub
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With my vote that should be day's end. Doc, do your stuff. |
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| Allesandra | Jan 22 2009, 11:32 PM Post #224 |
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Only Girl Actively Participating in Threads
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And with that, the Day is OVER! No lynch is made. It is now NIGHT FOUR. The night will end on January 24, 2009 at 12:00 a.m. CDT. Edited by Allesandra, Jan 22 2009, 11:34 PM.
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| New Harumf | Jan 23 2009, 09:55 AM Post #225 |
Bloodthirsty Unicorn
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God Damnit! Couldn't you have waited for me to post something before doing something this damn stupid!! AAAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. |
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