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Jambalai Island Mafia (Town Win); Game Three
Topic Started: Jan 15 2009, 09:27 PM (3,169 Views)
New Harumf
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
I have re-read through the posts above, paying particular attention to those cheering for the elimination of TC and RD. Three names came to the surface, two of them rocketing to the top. Those names are:

Menhad
Telosan
Flumes

Seeing as we should only have two bad guys, one of those on my list is innocent. I shall concentrate on whom to eliminate from that short list.

Any enlightenment, opinion or fact from others NOT ON THE LIST would be greatly appreciated.
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Paradise
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I heavily suspect NH of being a mafiate. After all, he voted for TC and his vote led to a lynch. He also jumped on Menhad after his "no one" vote.

Therefore, for right now:

Vote: NH

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New Harumf
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Paradise
Jan 20 2009, 05:00 PM
I heavily suspect NH of being a mafiate. After all, he voted for TC and his vote led to a lynch. He also jumped on Menhad after his "no one" vote.

Therefore, for right now:

Vote: NH

TC was lynched because TC voted for himself.
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Paradise
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But you did vote TC, and this vote with all the others led to the lynch of TC. Furthermore, I already suspected you on day 1, I suspect you even more right now.
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Menhad
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I have to say I didn't champion for RD death. I merely voted for him(With good reasons, I could have changed my vote to TC to end the day, but I didn't).

Also do you think that if I was mafia I would be so dumb as to kill RD? That would lead straight to me.

No NH, you appear scummy. You where so quick as to point out others, and try to cast the public eyes on those people. Also you were so quick to jump on me and nearly got me killed.

(Although I do agree TC killed himself, but needless to say is that you voted for him)

Vote: NH
Edited by Menhad, Jan 20 2009, 05:24 PM.
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New Harumf
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Menhad
Jan 20 2009, 05:23 PM
I have to say I didn't champion for RD death. I merely voted for him(With good reasons, I could have changed my vote to TC to end the day, but I didn't).

Also do you think that if I was mafia I would be so dumb as to kill RD? That would lead straight to me.

No NH, you appear scummy. You where so quick as to point out others, and try to cast the public eyes on those people. Also you were so quick to jump on me and nearly got me killed.

(Although I do agree TC killed himself, but needless to say is that you voted for him)

Vote: NH
OK, everyone, the Mafioso is starting a bandwagon. Menhad is guilty as sin. Even tho my original vote for Menhad was to just get people talking,who knew I'd be right! Then my switch to TC was done EARLY, and was not among the deciding votes that switched later.

If you hang me today I promise you you will be giving the Mafia a huge advantage. More than you know.
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Menhad
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Jan 20 2009, 05:56 PM
Menhad
Jan 20 2009, 05:23 PM
I have to say I didn't champion for RD death. I merely voted for him(With good reasons, I could have changed my vote to TC to end the day, but I didn't).

Also do you think that if I was mafia I would be so dumb as to kill RD? That would lead straight to me.

No NH, you appear scummy. You where so quick as to point out others, and try to cast the public eyes on those people. Also you were so quick to jump on me and nearly got me killed.

(Although I do agree TC killed himself, but needless to say is that you voted for him)

Vote: NH
OK, everyone, the Mafioso is starting a bandwagon. Menhad is guilty as sin. Even tho my original vote for Menhad was to just get people talking,who knew I'd be right! Then my switch to TC was done EARLY, and was not among the deciding votes that switched later.

If you hang me today I promise you you will be giving the Mafia a huge advantage. More than you know.
You pick, Telosan, Flumes and Me because we all made fools of our selves day one.

We all know what I did day one

You picked Flumes because TC voted for him right of the bat.

And Telosan because he is a weak player, and almost always looks scummy.(Also he voted with H twice, I agree though Telosan looks scummy, but not as scummy as NH. Telosan is my second place for scum)

Also the funny thing is that you didn't call it a bandwagon when you started one against me(with no explanation, until a while after). But this is a bandwagon?
Edited by Menhad, Jan 20 2009, 06:27 PM.
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New Harumf
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
A bandwagon is not made by ONE vote. It is made by piling on after someone else votes. Let me put it in terms you'll understand. Safety tackles the tight end, two linebackers jump on top. Safety did his job, linebackers are bandwagoning!
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lebowski2123
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Resident?
Boy that moved really fast.
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Menhad
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New Harumf
Jan 20 2009, 07:30 PM
A bandwagon is not made by ONE vote. It is made by piling on after someone else votes. Let me put it in terms you'll understand. Safety tackles the tight end, two linebackers jump on top. Safety did his job, linebackers are bandwagoning!
Ha!

But you voted for me and didn't explain your vote when you voted for me and neither did the people who voted directly after you. (Thats them not you, but still)
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East Anarx
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I'm starting to think Menhad is mafia... But I'll withhold my vote until I see more evidence...
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flumes
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CLEVELAND ROCKS!
I'm actually more convinced Menhad was not mafia then before... NH was probably the lead guy of those unlisted... Right when he was first accused of bandwagoning is when he kind of died away from posting.

I was an idiot day 1... But I am not mafia. I really thought TC was a mafiate, much like I thought Paradise was one last game (he wasn't).
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Telosan
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I thought TC was mafia as well. Everyone is clueless on day 1. There's not much to do or say at the start and nothing to base arguments on.

I've agreed that NH was working on starting bandwagons, but since he had not said anything in a while along with the others, I had focused on TC and RD.

The mafia could have killed RD over night as an attempt to throw suspicion on me, being the only survivor. Then you all would lynch me, thus giving the mafia another kill that they engineered. I'm assuming Huesca was killed by the vigilante, as he appeared scummy. That really leaves me the only survivor, and makes me appear mafia, not only by my actions previously.

Now NH brands Flumes and I as potential mafia. We both we involved quite a bit on day 1 with the debate. Menhad was thrown into the list as well because of his early actions on day 1, and his silence after. (At least I'm assuming such.)

So I'll tenatively VOTE: NH.

I'll remove it if he redeems himself.
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Allesandra
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NH: 3 (2 for lynch)
Telosan: 1
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New Harumf
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
H was not killed by the Vigilante, he was killed by the Assassin, aka known as me, that only had one shot, and I took it based on TC's analysis. Now, TC has proven prety reliable here, even asked the Dr. to save RD early on. TC did not accuse me.

You figure it out.

Vote: Telosan
Edited by New Harumf, Jan 20 2009, 11:39 PM.
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Rafzakael
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Huesca
Jan 19 2009, 01:02 PM
Quote:
 
You also have to consider how extremely unlikely it is that I'm mafia for the 3rd game in the row.


This is the best argument I've heard thusfar, Despite it being fallacious. However, chances are the GM would notice you were mafia AGAIN, and manually trade you for someone else. I'll assume TC is telling the truth about RD, even if he has me wrong.


Unvote: TC
Vote: RD
Before I get into my suspicions, I'm wondering if we have any psychologists in the crowd. I can't, for the life of me, figure out why Huesca did this when TC was one vote from getting lynched. That said, I'm glad he did, because it gave me a pretty clear idea of who our second mafiate is.

This person jumped 3 bandwagons day 1. He admitted he didn't have a reason for making his first vote, and the next two flips came very shrotly after each time Huesca flipped. Our loyal, but obvious, mafiate is:

Going to be revealed at the end of my post, as per the rules, although you probably just skipped to the big red text anyway.

Anyway, regarding Huesca's post. TC was one vote from getting lynched, and the mafia Don switches off of him. This seems contrary to the object of the game. What if Huesca couldn't count on getting mafia #3's vote for TC, because he was already convicted in his vote for RD? Maybe our third mafiate is the lone man who had his vote on RD before Huesca and Telo (Our known mafiates) switched. Menhad?

VOTE: TELOSAN

EDIT: More evidence against Menhad, Telosan followed his vote today. He might have made a good point, but that has never been known to make up Telo's mind in the past. I can't be sure about Menhad, but kill Telo today and we won't regret it.
Edited by Rafzakael, Jan 21 2009, 11:04 AM.
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Rafzakael
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More analysis:

Paradise - I doubt if he's mafia. Only voter that did not go after either of the popular candidates at any time on day 1.
NH - Hard to tell. Attacking a no-lycher is not scummy.
Flumes - Seems to be just following the crowd, might be scummy if Menhad isn't.
Lebowski - Has made one post thus far. A scummy lurker?
E - Lurking a bit as well, or maybe just inactive.
Edited by Rafzakael, Jan 21 2009, 11:20 AM.
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lebowski2123
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Resident?
I haven't had much time. Menhad is the top of my list right now, but i'd watch out for TC (crafty) RD (double crafty) and NH (assassins have a questionable moral code)
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Allesandra
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NH: 3
Telosan: 3

(Both: 2 for lynch)
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Paradise
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Rafzakael
Jan 21 2009, 11:20 AM
NH - Hard to tell. Attacking a no-lycher is not scummy.
It is. No lynch is a viable option on day 1 when people have not yet casted their votes and information is scarce. NH jumped Menhad for no valid reason, this is scummy from a statistical viewpoint.

Now regarding the rest of your analysis Raf, it is quite possible that Telo is mafiate. Even if I consider jumping on a no-lyncher to be scummy, maybe NH was only acting on the (false) assumption that "a no lynch on the first day helps the Mafia" (assumption which justified TC to vote for Menhad on the first day even if TC was townie).

Furthermore, TC, a confirmed townie, was clearly convinced that Telo was mafiate based on his day 1 behavior. On day 2, Telo also appears to have bandwagoned on NH. This seems to strenghten the probability that Telo is mafiate.

I change my vote.

Unvote: NH

Vote: Telosan
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flumes
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Rafzakael
Jan 21 2009, 11:20 AM
Flumes - Seems to be just following the crowd, might be scummy if Menhad isn't.
Okay, you could say a lot of things about me this game..... But WTF!?! I was the first to (unfortunately) vote for TC. And I was the first to vote for Teloson this round. I really don't get how that is following the crowd!!

I'm a townie...

Hopefully I am right on Teloson.
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Rafzakael
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flumes
Jan 21 2009, 05:16 PM
Okay, you could say a lot of things about me this game..... But WTF!?! I was the first to (unfortunately) vote for TC. And I was the first to vote for Teloson this round. I really don't get how that is following the crowd!!

I'm a townie...

Hopefully I am right on Teloson.
O.o

There's some of today on page 6. Didn't see that. But yeah, we're definitely right about Telo.
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Rafzakael
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lebowski2123
Jan 21 2009, 03:07 PM
I haven't had much time. Menhad is the top of my list right now, but i'd watch out for TC (crafty) RD (double crafty) and NH (assassins have a questionable moral code)
... TC and RD are confirmed townie corpses.

EDIT: Need one more to lynch Telo and be down to 1 scum.
Edited by Rafzakael, Jan 21 2009, 05:29 PM.
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Paradise
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I'd like to read Telo one last time before lynching him definitely, though...
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Menhad
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Telo (As I said before, scummy) the mere fact that you changed your vote to match H was scummy. Also the fact that you never seem to have the guts to vote on your own(As too come up with with a new person to vote for)

NH, I was having left over feelings from day one (and the fact that you placed me on your list) and so I voted for you (Paradise beat me). But in the end logic prevails, and while old feeling die hard, Telosan's failure to act is what makes him seem scummy to me.

Unvote: NH
Vote: Telosan
Edited by Menhad, Jan 21 2009, 05:55 PM.
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