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| Jambalai Island Mafia (Town Win); Game Three | |
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| Topic Started: Jan 15 2009, 09:27 PM (3,172 Views) | |
| Rhadamanthus | Jan 19 2009, 11:58 AM Post #76 |
Legitimist
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I said "argument and pressure." That was precise. Paradise made arguments that I found convincing at the time, and also put pressure on me by voting against me that round. Also, the rest of your argument is completely nonsensical. After I posted that quoted question in the comments thread, Raf provided me a full answer:
And so, after reading this and thinking on the issue, I decide that I was wrong to go with the "no lynch," which is why I am against it this game. Simple and straightforward. The only reason that it might appear strange is because TC is continually using selective quotations and partial facts. That kind of argument is not used without a reason. Furthermore, I realize now that since there are almost certainly at least two mafiosi, TC is already in the danger zone. So my voting for him would not push him into the danger zone. Frankly, I do think he is mafia (look at his style of argument). In fact, I suspect the only reason that he, already being in the danger zone, has not already been bandwagoned to death is because he is mafia and the other mafiosi are not willing to vote for him. Also, looking at the odds of being a mafioso in each game, calculating the odds of being mafia in all three games, and taking the number of players in each of our games, it is true that a person being mafia in all three games is rather unlikely, but it is not so unlikely as to be removed from consideration. UNVOTE: MENHAD VOTE: TC |
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| Tristan da Cunha | Jan 19 2009, 12:10 PM Post #77 |
Science and Industry
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Raf's argument is clearly nonsensical and illogical, mathematically, and the chances of RD, a trained mathematician, of sincerely believing Raf's sophistic arguments are nil.
Again RD is relying on wordplay to obscure the logic; the chances of this occurring are in fact less than 2%. After I'm lynched, my last will and testament to the town is: lynch Huesca and RD. Edited by Tristan da Cunha, Jan 19 2009, 12:11 PM.
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| Telosan | Jan 19 2009, 12:14 PM Post #78 |
The Foremost Intellectual Badass
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This debate is very interesting to watch. Very persuasive arguments from both sides, but TC is almost dead anyway so I'm keeping my vote. |
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| Tristan da Cunha | Jan 19 2009, 12:17 PM Post #79 |
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Science and Industry
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Telosan, vote against Huesca next round. If you're a townie, you'll benefit from the elimination of Huesca. If you're mafia, you'll also benefit from voting against Huesca, since it would throw suspicion off of you. |
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| Telosan | Jan 19 2009, 12:25 PM Post #80 |
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The Foremost Intellectual Badass
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But that confirms nothing towards my own position. Either position I would benefit, but I'll see if you're a townie or mafia before I decide. Not taking advice from mafia, cause I could end up killing a fellow townie that a mafiate ringed in suspicion. Even if you are a townie, however, I still might not vote on Huesca because you haven't given sufficient evidence for me. Does this mean you have thrown off your attempt to kill RD if you're going after Huesca now? Your last post doesn't connect to any of your other posts. |
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| Tristan da Cunha | Jan 19 2009, 12:28 PM Post #81 |
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Science and Industry
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Check out Post 71 http://s3.zetaboards.com/nationstates/single/?p=8018142&t=7106763 Huesca is 100% mafia. He was the cop and original "no vote" from the 2nd game, and he is bandwagon king this game. |
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| Rhadamanthus | Jan 19 2009, 12:30 PM Post #82 |
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Legitimist
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Why would Raf's argument be sophistic? It was a teaching argument in an OOC comment thread. There would have been no purpose to sophistry. Also, the mathematical probability based argument in favor of a no lynch is a fallacy for two reasons: 1) Initial votes are not necessarily aimed at actually lynching a specific person. They are aimed at drawing out conversation before day's end. No lynch votes are bad because they threaten to cut off the dicussion and limit our ability to learn. 2) First day lynches are not, in fact, based on random probability, but just like all votes in this game, they are modified by the conversation that has been drawn out. So the lynches are not pure random events. An example is useful to illustrate these principles. I voted for Menhad based on his initial "no lynch" vote. This does not mean I necessarily thought he was mafia, and it does not mean he was a random choice either. Rather, since "no lynch" voting is generally beneficial to the mafia, it serves as a useful trigger to weaken the randomness of the initial votes. But, the conversation that has been born from the various initial votes people have made has provided additional information that has instead inclined me to vote for TC. Nevertheless, TC, I have to congratulate you one something. That was an excellent smokescreen. You clearly don't believe that we should vote "no lynch," so there is no reason why you would think that I should believe such. Your behavior evidences your belief not in the mathematical rationale your are advancing, but in my counterpoints. Logically then, this was all a ploy, a distraction, to guide me and others away from actual issues here. I fell for that, and I feel rather silly now. But nevertheless, good job. As for the likelihood of you being mafia, we have 11 players total, since Allesandra was mechanically not part of the role assignment system (since she is the moderator). If there are two, three, or four mafiosi, then the chance of you being mafia is 2/11, 3/11, or 4/11 respectively. Preceeding trials do not modify the probability of succeeding ones. While it is possible that you are still just making arguments to draw out this sort of discussion, your heavy reliance on partial facts, selective quotation, and other misleading strategies suggests to me that you are a mafioso trying to get a kill in, or at least turn attention away from you. If you do convince the others to kill me though this round, its not a big deal, and really, you'd be walking into a bear trap. I'm just a vanilla townie, a warm body. The presence of disposable warm bodies is the town's biggest advantage against the mafia. If people kill me, they can immediately draw a conclusion about you. So in fact, I would encourage the rest of the town to consider TC's reasoning and vote for me. I think I'd be useful to the town in general, but if we kill me this turn and TC next round and he is mafia, then that is a pretty good trade. |
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| Tristan da Cunha | Jan 19 2009, 12:54 PM Post #83 |
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Science and Industry
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The OOC thread is a hotbed of sophistry and can only be taken with a grain of salt. Remember, Raf claimed that Telosan was extremely scummy in the first game, no doubt influencing voters with his "teachings". First day lynches are nonrandom and in fact statistically always more dangerous to the town than the mafia, because the lynch is biased by the mafiosi's informed votes. The mathematical probability that the town benefits from a typical first day lynch is extremely small, no matter how much discussion goes on. Discussion is just as likely to bias the vote in favor of the mafia as it is in to bias the vote in favor of the town. The cop plays conservatively and errs on the side of caution while the mafia aims to engineer the first day lynch. First day lynches will only result in the successful lynching of a mafiosi if extremely compelling, exceptional evidence appears, such as has appeared against Huesca and RD, so I'm fully comfortable with my vote. Edited by Tristan da Cunha, Jan 19 2009, 01:03 PM.
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| Allesandra | Jan 19 2009, 12:57 PM Post #84 |
Only Girl Actively Participating in Threads
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TC: 5 (one vote needed to lynch) RD: 1 NH: 1 Menhad: 1 Flumes: 1 Huesca: 1 |
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| Union | Jan 19 2009, 01:02 PM Post #85 |
Pyrenees Republic
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This is the best argument I've heard thusfar, Despite it being fallacious. However, chances are the GM would notice you were mafia AGAIN, and manually trade you for someone else. I'll assume TC is telling the truth about RD, even if he has me wrong. Unvote: TC Vote: RD Edited by Union, Jan 19 2009, 01:03 PM.
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| Tristan da Cunha | Jan 19 2009, 01:05 PM Post #86 |
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Science and Industry
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Desperation move by Huesca. Friends he is mafia, keep your aim on Huesca! |
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| Union | Jan 19 2009, 01:08 PM Post #87 |
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Pyrenees Republic
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:rolleyes: I'll go for RD - if he gets lynched and is no one special, we'll know your motivations sure enough. |
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| Tristan da Cunha | Jan 19 2009, 01:10 PM Post #88 |
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Science and Industry
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If you're lynched we'll also know my motivations. |
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| Union | Jan 19 2009, 01:10 PM Post #89 |
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Pyrenees Republic
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True enough. I know I'm a townie though. I don't know if RD is. Edited by Union, Jan 19 2009, 01:10 PM.
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| Rhadamanthus | Jan 19 2009, 01:12 PM Post #90 |
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Legitimist
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This. I'm not going to respond to TC last response, because I don't think it adds any further substantial argument that I have not already refuted. But like I said before, if you guys kill me, you'll know what TC is up to. So I'm going to keep voting for TC, but will encourage the rest to vote TC or me. |
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| Rhadamanthus | Jan 19 2009, 01:20 PM Post #91 |
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Legitimist
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Oh, and another thing, after TC or I is lynched, the cop could perhaps investigate the survivor. |
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| Telosan | Jan 19 2009, 01:37 PM Post #92 |
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The Foremost Intellectual Badass
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Good idea, but would you want to reveal the cop to the mafia so early? |
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| Rhadamanthus | Jan 19 2009, 01:41 PM Post #93 |
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Legitimist
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No, not necessarily, but the cop has to investigate someone, so I'm just giving a suggestion as to where to start. |
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| Tristan da Cunha | Jan 19 2009, 01:44 PM Post #94 |
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Science and Industry
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The mafiosi RD is injecting more confusion into the discussion by posing a "choice" between "TC and RD". Everyone, vote Huesca this round. As I mentioned earlier he will fall off the radar if you don't prosecute him right now. After Huesca is dead you'll see I was right and I'll need the doctor's protection. |
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| Telosan | Jan 19 2009, 01:56 PM Post #95 |
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The Foremost Intellectual Badass
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The only one saying to kill Huesca is TC. I have not gotten enough evidence to convince me to vote for Huesca. RD and TC are going at it, and both are equally scummy to me. RD wants us to vote him so we can say his words are true if he's a townie. However, he could be trying to move us away from voting him because it would seem that he would make a selfless sacrifice for the 'good' of the town. TC, however, has been throwing accusations back & forth between Huesca and RD. He voted for Flumes for no reason, though he said it was to draw out the mafia. He even claimed I could/am mafia just to turn around and try to get me to vote RD or Huesca. We can't go wrong by voting RD, because if he is mafia, then we killed a mafiate. If he ISN'T mafia, then TC is definatly mafia by his logic and we can kill him next round. UNVOTE: TC VOTE: RD |
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| Tristan da Cunha | Jan 19 2009, 02:39 PM Post #96 |
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Science and Industry
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The evidence against Huesca is the same evidence against RD. Huesca was a cop and the original champion of the "no vote", and today he is a vicious bandwagoner. If you let Huesca slip by today, you'll be doing a big favor for the mafia. Huesca is key. In fact Telosan you are just confirming your own guilt by working so subtly yet vigorously to throw suspicion off Huesca. |
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| Telosan | Jan 19 2009, 02:57 PM Post #97 |
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The Foremost Intellectual Badass
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Throw suspicion off Huesca? At least as far as I know, besides the usual unsure either way, you are the only one claiming him mafia. If you know something extra please share. As for throwing suspicion, you're trying to bring attention off yourself. Now I went with what you and RD said and voted for RD. Whatever he turns out to be, mafia or townie, will detirmine whether or not you can be trusted. |
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| Tristan da Cunha | Jan 19 2009, 03:06 PM Post #98 |
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Science and Industry
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Ok, vote against me then. After I'm dead kill the three people in the following order: Huesca, Telosan, RD. I always put RD last because he makes more posts and draws more attention than the others so it's important to quickly kill the mafiosi who are under the radar, such as Huesca and Telosan. |
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| Rhadamanthus | Jan 19 2009, 03:17 PM Post #99 |
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Legitimist
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I've yet to see any serious reason to vote for Huesca. TC I would say is 99.98% likely to be mafia. Telo, thanks for paying attention to what I said. If you kill me, you'll know my deal, so you can go after TC. |
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| Allesandra | Jan 19 2009, 03:23 PM Post #100 |
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Only Girl Actively Participating in Threads
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TC: 3 (3 for lynch) RD: 3 (3 for lynch) NH: 1 Menhad:1 Flumes:1 Huesca:1 |
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