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Jambalai Island Mafia (Town Win); Game Three
Topic Started: Jan 15 2009, 09:27 PM (3,173 Views)
Rhadamanthus
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Legitimist

Romanus spoke up: "I voted for Menhad because he voted for nobody. Everyone knows that in the game of mafia, which I think applies very well to our current situation, a first-day lynch is almost always better than a first-day no lynch because it allows the mafia to get a second free kill without any chance of taking one of them down. In effect, it makes the town-game a round shorter or the mafia-game a round longer, either way producing a mafia advantage. Menhad has since withdrawn this vote, so perhaps it was mere folly, or perhaps it was some malicious strategem.

"Thus, I am not going to change my vote until I observe your souls for a time longer."
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Tristan da Cunha
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"I am quite familiar with Mafia psychology. I have watched Goodfellas at least 200 times." said Tristan da Cunha. "Huesca and Romanus are mafia for sure."
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Allesandra
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 *  *  *  *  *
TC: 3
RD: 1
NH: 2
Menhad: 1
Edited by Allesandra, Jan 18 2009, 12:10 PM.
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Telosan
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The Foremost Intellectual Badass
I agree...RPing isn't going to work. I'll be playing OOC, but considering IC actions.

TC is acting suspiciously. Menhad, well...I don't even know why we voted him.

Vote: TC

Edited to color vote.
Edited by Telosan, Jan 18 2009, 01:51 PM.
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Menhad
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New Harumf
Jan 18 2009, 10:58 AM
We have seen in the past that voting for nobody can be a Mafia ploy, to avoid either drawing suspision away from Mofiaites with votes, or to deflect voting away from oneself. Now, with two votes from Paradice and Menhad, that have no reason to vote for me other than my townie actions, my suspicion is being raised in their direction. Regardless, I'll let my vote stand. TC has behaved most pecular.
That makes much more sense NH.

Unvote: NH
Vote: RD

Why? Because RD not only seems scummy, but he also is trying to avoid any suspicion by pointing at me and not budging when fact is clearly laid in front of him. I have done no evil (At least I feel this way) by suggesting we not only talk about it, but by trying to avoid as many innocent deaths as possible.
Edited by Menhad, Jan 18 2009, 02:11 PM.
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Tristan da Cunha
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"You don't want to kill me people!" Tristan said, as the mob converged on him. "You'll really regret it! I'm innocent and I want to help catch the killer!" He threw flotsam at the mob which was chasing after him along the beach.
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Menhad
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Tristan da Cunha
Jan 18 2009, 02:08 PM
"You don't want to kill me people!" Tristan said, as the mob converged on him. "You'll really regret it! I'm innocent and I want to help catch the killer!" He threw flotsam at the mob which was chasing after him along the beach.
How many votes are required for a lynch again?
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Tristan da Cunha
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Menhad
Jan 18 2009, 02:11 PM
Tristan da Cunha
Jan 18 2009, 02:08 PM
"You don't want to kill me people!" Tristan said, as the mob converged on him. "You'll really regret it! I'm innocent and I want to help catch the killer!" He threw flotsam at the mob which was chasing after him along the beach.
How many votes are required for a lynch again?
6, I believe.
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East Anarx
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VOTE: Flumes

"Because he insists on repeatedly making sexist remarks."
Edited by East Anarx, Jan 18 2009, 02:18 PM.
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flumes
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Esternarx
Jan 18 2009, 02:16 PM
VOTE: Flumes

"Because he insists on repeatedly making sexist remarks."
Flumes tried to no avail to control his laughter....
"Your going to kill me all because I have more game then you, and speak the truth?!?"
Crying from the laughter, Flumes continued...
"Nothing sexist to my remarks. If you could've seen her in action before she went and got herself killed you wouldn't think much differently of her..."


...

Basically everyone is acting scummy! GAH!
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New Harumf
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
Esternarx
Jan 18 2009, 02:16 PM
VOTE: Flumes

"Because he insists on repeatedly making sexist remarks."
Oooh, playing up to the GF, eh? :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Rafzakael
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A vote for nobody only helps the mafia win.

Vote: Menhad

On an unrelated note, does anyone find that the IC only clutters the thread and makes it harder to find the real logic?
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Rhadamanthus
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Menhad, you are pretty much confirming my decision to vote for you. Let's see, Menhad started by voting for nobody, which is already scummy behavior, and then followed up by changing his vote to TC, NH, and me in turn. That's three flips already, and we've pretty much just started the game! Until anyone gives me a lotical (and OOC, not IC) reason to vote for someone else, I'm keeping my vote on Menhad.
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Menhad
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Romanus Diogenes
Jan 18 2009, 05:41 PM
Menhad, you are pretty much confirming my decision to vote for you. Let's see, Menhad started by voting for nobody, which is already scummy behavior, and then followed up by changing his vote to TC, NH, and me in turn. That's three flips already, and we've pretty much just started the game! Until anyone gives me a lotical (and OOC, not IC) reason to vote for someone else, I'm keeping my vote on Menhad.
I voted nobody first cause I had nothing to base my vote on.

I vote TC second cause he voted for Flumes right off the bat, and I felt like putting the pressure on him to explain that vote.

Then, since I went back and looked through the post, I saw little that would make me vote for TC, and I felt like making NH explain him(which he did quite well)

Then I turned to you RD, since I feel like their isn't enough evidence to kill TC(And my vote would almost be a death sentence).

I not asking you to vote for anyone right now, and I doubt me explaining myself will change your vote.
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Tristan da Cunha
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OOC: Raf, OOC obscures the "real logic" as much as IC does :lol:

IC:

"I have identified two mafiosi: Huesca and Romanus Diogenes," said Tristan da Cunha.

"We must first kill Huesca, and then kill Romanus

"Huesca must die immediately because he is the type of unassuming person standing in the background speaking quietly and subtly for whom the longer he remains alive, the more you will waver and even forget to consider him, and God forbid you will let him slip away from justice.

"Romanus must die next. But remember this man is a treacherous spinner of lies. Do not trust a word Romanus says. Close your ears to his words, because he will say things to confuse you, and if you listen to his lies he will invariably successfully sow seeds of doubt in your mind. He will even vote to kill Huesca, such is the extent of his guile. Do not admit a single word of his testimony.

"Menhad is innocent. He is a panicky oaf, incapable of killing anything more than a grasshopper."
Edited by Tristan da Cunha, Jan 18 2009, 06:10 PM.
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Rafzakael
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Tristan da Cunha
Jan 18 2009, 06:02 PM
"Menhad is innocent. He is a panicky oaf, incapable of killing anything more than a grasshopper."
Either this, or he's a first-time mafiate slipping up badly. However, you're right, RD has proven to be slippery as a mafiate, but I haven't seen any major red flags.
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Tristan da Cunha
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Don't ever listen to Raf. He had the "assist" that got Telosan killed in the first game. :lol:

"After Huesca and Romanus are dead, kill Raf, Flumes, and Telosan in no particular order. By then police work will have uncovered the 3rd mafiosi"
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Union
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I'll keep my vote against TC. He's trying to deflect attention away from him to just about everyone. Gotta be a reason for it.
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Rafzakael
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TC is going a bit accuse-happy.
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Telosan
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Quote:
 
"After Huesca and Romanus are dead, kill Raf, Flumes, and Telosan in no particular order. By then police work will have uncovered the 3rd mafiosi"


Please note that Raf, Huesca, and I are voting against him or regarding him suspiciously. He's trying to turn the tables to us.

Flumes, he voted right away, and could be trying to press his vote anyway.

Don't know why he said RD. Possibly because of his record in the last few games.
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Tristan da Cunha
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Unvote: RD

Vote: Huesca

Join me in disposing of Huesca today.

I comprehended immediately Huesca and RD were mafia after they so swiftly and eagerly bandwagoned on New Harumf's vote against Menhad. Remember, in the last game Huesca and RD argued on statistical grounds that we should always vote "no one" on the first day. Huesca and RD were cops in the last game, and had every interest in maximizing the chances for the town's survival.

They are not cops in this game, in fact they are mafia for doing a 180 on this important mathematical principle that they argued so forcefully last game. I don't believe a professional mathematician like RD will throw out the statistics, unless he is mafia or a serial killer and wants to score a kill on the first day.

After H and RD voted Menhad, I immediately voted Menhad because I wanted the 3rd mafiosi to bandwagon after me and thus reveal himself. This also leaves open the possibility that NH himself is mafia, but he might've just wanted to be an ass (in a good way), and make an unsubstantiated vote.

Also I think there are other evidence for H and RD being mafia but those will remain trade secrets until later :lol:

The 3rd mafiosi is more challenging to find and will likely not be revealed today. But the cop (and I'm not saying whether I'm a cop) will find the 3rd mafiosi sooner or later.

Kill Huesca today. Leave RD for tommorow so we can interrogate him :lol:

In the meantime I'm asking the doctor to protect me from the night kill so I can continue to track the mafia.
Edited by Tristan da Cunha, Jan 19 2009, 12:18 AM.
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Allesandra
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 *  *  *  *  *
TC: 4
RD: 1
NH: 1
Menhad: 2
Flumes: 1
Huesca: 1
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Telosan
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Good logic, but I still beleive you're trying to turn attention away from yourself.

Quote:
 
Quote:
 
"After Huesca and Romanus are dead, kill Raf, Flumes, and Telosan in no particular order. By then police work will have uncovered the 3rd mafiosi"

Please note that Raf, Huesca, and I are voting against him or regarding him suspiciously. He's trying to turn the tables to us.

Flumes, he voted right away, and could be trying to press his vote anyway.

Don't know why he said RD. Possibly because of his record in the last few games.

Now TC has confirmed that he wants to vote RD because of his record in previous games.

Plus, as I learned the hard way in the other game, vote flipping is very scummy. Though I was a townie then (and still am here), I believe that TC is mafia, trying to create a bandwagon on people who are voting against him.
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Rhadamanthus
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TC: Actually, in the previous game I argued in favor a kill on the first day, and against a no lynch when Huesca first proposed it. I changed my mind under argument and pressure from Paradise. In this game, I have advanced pretty much the same argument that I advanced in the beginning of last game, both times derived from the logic outlined by Raf in the first mafia thread.

Similarly, my vote here has been against Menhad for the same reason my first vote in the previous game was against Huesca. You want to get votes on the table on the first day, and the first person to cry "no lynch" is a good place to start. There was no "bandwagon" on my part. I voted Menhad as soon as I got the chance to see his "no lynch" vote. The fact that others had done this before me was trivial.

Of course, at this point, I don't really have any solid reason to think Menhad is mafia. I do think TC could be mafia, based on the rhetoric he is using. But I don't want to change my vote to TC quite yet, because then he'd be one vote away from being lynched. Menhad is currently safer, so I don't need to remove my vote.
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Tristan da Cunha
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Telosan is either a simpleton, or mafia. :lol:

And since he has a scholarship from JHU, it's unlikely he is a simpleton. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Huesca, RD, and Telosan are the mafia.

Telosan, if you're a townie I hope you're not being serious when you trot out cliches and formulas such as "vote flipping is very scummy". As you yourself know obviously these cliches are just as likely to backfire. You have to consider the totality of the situation.

Question; Is there anything wrong with voting on someone based on the person's actions in previous games? It's counterproductive to ignore factors outside the immediate current game, and anyone who is trying to convince you to do so is trying to mislead you. Again, you have to consider the totality of the situation, down to the temperature in the air.

You also have to consider how extremely unlikely it is that I'm mafia for the 3rd game in the row. If we accept that all role assignments are random, the chances of this thing happening are minimal. If we accept that role assignments are at GM's discretion, it is likely that GM will spread the mafia wealth a bit, not give one person mafia role all the time. Also I don't judge Allesandra capable of contriving to throw the town off balance by making one person mafia for the 3rd game.

***

Regarding RD's words: you speak with an air of moderation but that is the hallmark of your skilled cunning; to lull the reader with the apparent moderation and temperance of your statements. But upon closer inspection the logic in his words breaks down and the obfuscation is exposed.

It's true you were initially opposed to a "no vote" but you were soon completely convinced that a "no vote" was appropriate. You did not change your mind "under pressure"; rather you were won over and sincerely convinced by the mathematical logic.

"Okay Raf, I made your argument, in game, that a no lynch benefits the mafia. Clearly I didn't make it very well, because I ended up being convinced of the alternate argument that we are likely to kill an innocent the first round, so we would most likely help the mafia. So here is the thing: you clearly think that counter-argument is wrong, but I don't understand why it is wrong (which is why I switched my vote)." (RD)


It makes no sense for RD (who was the cop, and who had a strong vested interest in the town's survival) to be sincerely in favor of the first-day no-vote last game, and then for him to completely repudiate that well-informed and mathematically sound position this game. The only logical explaanation to explain this is, RD is mafia.
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