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Eh no big deal; WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE
Topic Started: Aug 8 2008, 11:15 AM (924 Views)
Tristan da Cunha
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Science and Industry
Kasnyia
 
They need to justify it to their people. The Russian Government is autocratic, but not nearly as much as the Soviet Union was (yet). Thus, they have to do like America does and make some sort of justification, hence why they waited for Saakashvili to make a mistake.


The Kremlin doesn't need to justify a conquest of Georgia to the Russian people. The typical Russian civilian heavily regrets letting all those little Soviet republics break away from Moscow if you know what I mean.

Russia is compelled to justify to international observers. Russia knows that if it blatantly landgrabbed Georgia's independence, the floodgates will open for American military aid to the Central/Eastern European countries, and Russia doesn't want that at all.
Edited by Tristan da Cunha, Aug 17 2008, 07:35 PM.
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Kasnyia
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Chairman of the Bank
True. Either way, its still too afraid of what others think to be as blatant as they once were (a la 1968), which was supposed to be my point...
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Nag Ehgoeg
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The Devil's Advocate

Tristan da Cunha
Aug 17 2008, 07:35 PM
Russia is compelled to justify to international observers. Russia knows that if it blatantly landgrabbed Georgia's independence, the floodgates will open for American military aid to the Central/Eastern European countries, and Russia doesn't want that at all.
Would it?

While the American people can still be whipped into a frenzy over a Red Scare... does the government really care about Russia growing in power? With China, India and the like becoming major powers on the world stage, does the US government care about Russia growing in power? As in, care enough to do something about it?

I see a Hitler-Czechoslovakia situation. First Russia takes a little, reaches an agreement, then takes the rest. The rest of the world just sits by until they invade NATO's newest member - the Ukraine (Poland).
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Tristan da Cunha
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Nag Ehgoeg
Aug 18 2008, 05:14 AM
Would it?

While the American people can still be whipped into a frenzy over a Red Scare... does the government really care about Russia growing in power? With China, India and the like becoming major powers on the world stage, does the US government care about Russia growing in power? As in, care enough to do something about it?

I see a Hitler-Czechoslovakia situation. First Russia takes a little, reaches an agreement, then takes the rest. The rest of the world just sits by until they invade NATO's newest member - the Ukraine (Poland).
Reports of the "Rise of China and India" are highly exaggerated. Both countries are ticking time bombs - too much population, unstable socioeconomic situation (more so in China than India), and stifling lack of strategic natural resources - petroleum, metals, etc. India's economy is already beginning to stumble, and China's economy will fall hard after the Olympics. Neither country has a sustainable economic model and both overdepend on Western consumption of cheap Asian goods and services. The age of rampant Western consumption is over, as our banking system has been exposed to be a Ponzi scheme of government-sanctioned proportions. Both China and India will experience major social disturbances as their now-booming economies begin to fail and their people are brought down to reality.

Russia on the other hand, has the oil, iron, and all the dozens of unsung but absolutely critical commodities, and does not need to import its wheat and industrial metals from thousands of miles away in Australia or something. Russia poses the far more significant long-term rivalry to the United States. Russia's advantages over China and India are immense and not only the US is beginning to grasp this fact, both the governments of China and India are becoming more aware of Russia's potential and their own unfavorable positions.
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New Harumf
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
Tristan da Cunha
Aug 18 2008, 06:59 AM
Nag Ehgoeg
Aug 18 2008, 05:14 AM
Would it?

While the American people can still be whipped into a frenzy over a Red Scare... does the government really care about Russia growing in power? With China, India and the like becoming major powers on the world stage, does the US government care about Russia growing in power? As in, care enough to do something about it?

I see a Hitler-Czechoslovakia situation. First Russia takes a little, reaches an agreement, then takes the rest. The rest of the world just sits by until they invade NATO's newest member - the Ukraine (Poland).
Reports of the "Rise of China and India" are highly exaggerated. Both countries are ticking time bombs - too much population, unstable socioeconomic situation (more so in China than India), and stifling lack of strategic natural resources - petroleum, metals, etc. India's economy is already beginning to stumble, and China's economy will fall hard after the Olympics. Neither country has a sustainable economic model and both overdepend on Western consumption of cheap Asian goods and services. The age of rampant Western consumption is over, as our banking system has been exposed to be a Ponzi scheme of government-sanctioned proportions. Both China and India will experience major social disturbances as their now-booming economies begin to fail and their people are brought down to reality.

Russia on the other hand, has the oil, iron, and all the dozens of unsung but absolutely critical commodities, and does not need to import its wheat and industrial metals from thousands of miles away in Australia or something. Russia poses the far more significant long-term rivalry to the United States. Russia's advantages over China and India are immense and not only the US is beginning to grasp this fact, both the governments of China and India are becoming more aware of Russia's potential and their own unfavorable positions.
I have said the above (good job, TC) many times here. You cannot have 1,000,000 haves and 900,000,000 have nots without expecting social unrest, even in a totalitarian state. China will fall hard, as will India (tho not as far). Russia is going to become our great competition once again, and that should scare us all.
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Kasnyia
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India won't far that fall. It'll merely fade back into how it was in the 80's or so due to the lesser contrast between the people and government.

Back on topic though,

Why the hell did MedvePutin even agree to the ceasefire if it had no intention of following through on it? Really, what did it have to lose apart from what it was gonna lose anyway?
Edited by Kasnyia, Aug 18 2008, 09:10 PM.
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Sedulius
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Honestly, I don't think this is going to escalate much more.

If it does, then I'm happy with that. Yay Russia. But it probably won't.

What Russia does is in my best interests, for a strong Russia is one that can help the world. I seriously doubt they would ever attack another potential superpower, thus world war is likely not a possibility. Putin's too smart for that to happen.

I guess the real question is: is the West smart enough? That's where I'm a little worried. There'd be far less death and a shorter conflict if we just gave Russia the green light. I guess I have no sympathy. I simply look at it as conquering a nation for its own good.

Yup, that might be pretty hypocritical, me being Irish and willing to die for Ireland, but meh. Ireland is well off on its own at this point. So, I say again, meh.
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Kasnyia
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Chairman of the Bank
Oh there won;t be WWIII. I never said that. A new cold war, maybe, but not a new world war. And we NEED a new cold war, to restore the balance of power amongst Greater Europe (of which I consider the US to be apart of, the Atlantic be damned), and to let Asia do its thing, whatever it may be.
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Sedulius
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Good point. A new arms race and what not stimulates the economy as (really) makes things a bit more... dare I say peaceful?
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Kasnyia
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Indeed. Cold War means there is a balance that one of the balanced out powers wants to overcome/break for dominance. Balance means more order, less instability. More order and less instability means, once you go far enough down the line, more peace.

The problems of today's world are due to the imbalance under the "Pax Americana".
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Menhad
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ET2(IDW)
I swear you guys are smarter than the idiots we elected...

I would vote for most of you guys, well maybe not Scy...
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Kasnyia
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Chairman of the Bank
There is a maxim that I believe is very much true in Western society.

"Those most capable to run a nation do not care to. Those least capable are those most ambitious for power."
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Rhadamanthus
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Kasnyia
Aug 16 2008, 12:04 PM
Perhaps your right about the Uzbeks. I still think Georgia will be taken in multiple wars though, or atleast made a puppet before actual annexation.

And RD, I know the OR is only a temporary effect, but how temporary is the current question. Yankuyevich (or however it is you spell his name), will bring Ukraine back to heel. He just has to get rid of ricin-man.
I think some recent news makes the Orange Revolution worth discussing further. Apparently President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko, the two pillars of the Orange Revolution, are now in conflict, with the President accusing the prime minister of "high treason" because she didn't issue an strong opposition to the Russian operations in South Ossetia. She has been considered a strong candidate for President of Ukraine in 2010, and I read that she is seeking Russian backing.

Here is one article for an example: http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/ukraine-pm-accused-of-high-treason-1458568.html

Treason is obviously a very serious accusation, and likely to represent a serious schism between these two. Also, it wasn't that much longer than a year ago that Tymoshenko wrote the controversial article "Containing Russia," so if the President's accusations are true, and she is leaning more toward Russia, this would be a massive and significant turnaround.
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Sedulius
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Kasnyia
Aug 19 2008, 05:26 PM
There is a maxim that I believe is very much true in Western society.

"Those most capable to run a nation do not care to. Those least capable are those most ambitious for power."
I'm going to run eventually, and I would say I have an ambition for power. But really that's not what I want. I just want a simple life like everybody else.

There in lies why I'll be running. Try giving everyone else a simple life.

Don't worry, I'll only be brutal when the situation calls for it. ^^
Edited by Sedulius, Aug 20 2008, 03:12 PM.
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Comrade Queen
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Comrade Bitchqueen
Romanus Diogenes
Aug 20 2008, 01:27 PM
Kasnyia
Aug 16 2008, 12:04 PM
Perhaps your right about the Uzbeks. I still think Georgia will be taken in multiple wars though, or atleast made a puppet before actual annexation.

And RD, I know the OR is only a temporary effect, but how temporary is the current question. Yankuyevich (or however it is you spell his name), will bring Ukraine back to heel. He just has to get rid of ricin-man.
I think some recent news makes the Orange Revolution worth discussing further. Apparently President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko, the two pillars of the Orange Revolution, are now in conflict, with the President accusing the prime minister of "high treason" because she didn't issue an strong opposition to the Russian operations in South Ossetia. She has been considered a strong candidate for President of Ukraine in 2010, and I read that she is seeking Russian backing.

Here is one article for an example: http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/ukraine-pm-accused-of-high-treason-1458568.html

Treason is obviously a very serious accusation, and likely to represent a serious schism between these two. Also, it wasn't that much longer than a year ago that Tymoshenko wrote the controversial article "Containing Russia," so if the President's accusations are true, and she is leaning more toward Russia, this would be a massive and significant turnaround.
Wow.... that's absolutely ridiculous and almost NSWRish. "High treason?" C'mon! She's just being diplomatic like every other Western-supporting jerk has been failing to do.
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Sedulius
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Oh gosh, I wish that would happen. If she became president of Ukraine, and Russia backs her, then, damn, that would relieve a lot of tension in that area.
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Kasnyia
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Chairman of the Bank
If she wins, Ukraine gets to get the Belarus-treatment (i.e. very nicely). If she doesn't, southern Ukraine goes to Russia, with northern Ukraine eventually understanding the futility and also joining. Win win for the Russians. :D
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