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| Collapse of society? | |
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| Topic Started: Jun 18 2008, 08:42 PM (202 Views) | |
| Tristan da Cunha | Jun 18 2008, 08:42 PM Post #1 |
Science and Industry
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The ever bleaker news of recent economic crises has me anticipating the imminent collapse of modern civilization. What do you guys think will happen in the world in the next years to come? I'd like to know what Paradise thinks, as he is our resident professional economist. As for me, my own fears and speculations are well summarized in this article: ***** Energy fears looming, new survivalists prepare By SAMANTHA GROSS – May 25, 2008 BUSKIRK, N.Y. (AP) — A few years ago, Kathleen Breault was just another suburban grandma, driving countless hours every week, stopping for lunch at McDonald's, buying clothes at the mall, watching TV in the evenings. That was before Breault heard an author talk about the bleak future of the world's oil supply. Now, she's preparing for the world as we know it to disappear. Breault cut her driving time in half. She switched to a diet of locally grown foods near her upstate New York home and lost 70 pounds. She sliced up her credit cards, banished her television and swore off plane travel. She began relying on a wood-burning stove. "I was panic-stricken," the 50-year-old recalled, her voice shaking. "Devastated. Depressed. Afraid. Vulnerable. Weak. Alone. Just terrible." Convinced the planet's oil supply is dwindling and the world's economies are heading for a crash, some people around the country are moving onto homesteads, learning to live off their land, conserving fuel and, in some cases, stocking up on guns they expect to use to defend themselves and their supplies from desperate crowds of people who didn't prepare. The exact number of people taking such steps is impossible to determine, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the movement has been gaining momentum in the last few years. These energy survivalists are not leading some sort of green revolution meant to save the planet. Many of them believe it is too late for that, seeing signs in soaring fuel and food prices and a faltering U.S. economy, and are largely focused on saving themselves. Some are doing it quietly, giving few details of their preparations — afraid that revealing such information as the location of their supplies will endanger themselves and their loved ones. They envision a future in which the nation's cities will be filled with hungry, desperate refugees forced to go looking for food, shelter and water. "There's going to be things that happen when people can't get things that they need for themselves and their families," said Lynn-Marie, who believes cities could see a rise in violence as early as 2012. Lynn-Marie asked to be identified by her first name to protect her homestead in rural western Idaho. Many of these survivalists declined to speak to The Associated Press for similar reasons. These survivalists believe in "peak oil," the idea that world oil production is set to hit a high point and then decline. Scientists who support idea say the amount of oil produced in the world each year has already or will soon begin a downward slide, even amid increased demand. But many scientists say such a scenario will be avoided as other sources of energy come in to fill the void. On the PeakOil.com Web site, where upward of 800 people gathered on recent evenings, believers engage in a debate about what kind of world awaits. Some members argue there will be no financial crash, but a slow slide into harder times. Some believe the federal government will respond to the loss of energy security with a clampdown on personal freedoms. Others simply don't trust that the government can maintain basic services in the face of an energy crisis. The powers that be, they've determined, will be largely powerless to stop what is to come. Determined to guard themselves from potentially harsh times ahead, Lynn-Marie and her husband have already planted an orchard of about 40 trees and built a greenhouse on their 7 1/2 acres. They have built their own irrigation system. They've begun to raise chickens and pigs, and they've learned to slaughter them. The couple have gotten rid of their TV and instead have been reading dusty old books published in their grandparents' era, books that explain the simpler lifestyle they are trying to revive. Lynn-Marie has been teaching herself how to make soap. Her husband, concerned about one day being unable to get medications, has been training to become an herbalist. By 2012, they expect to power their property with solar panels, and produce their own meat, milk and vegetables. When things start to fall apart, they expect their children and grandchildren will come back home and help them work the land. She envisions a day when the family may have to decide whether to turn needy people away from their door. "People will be unprepared," she said. "And we can imagine marauding hordes." So can Peter Laskowski. Living in a woodsy area outside of Montpelier, Vt., the 57-year-old retiree has become the local constable and a deputy sheriff for his county, as well as an emergency medical technician. "I decided there was nothing like getting the training myself to deal with insurrections, if that's a possibility," said the former executive recruiter. Laskowski is taking steps similar to environmentalists: conserving fuel, consuming less, studying global warming, and relying on local produce and craftsmen. Laskowski is powering his home with solar panels and is raising fish, geese, ducks and sheep. He has planted apple and pear trees and is growing lettuce, spinach and corn. Whenever possible, he uses his bicycle to get into town. "I remember the oil crisis in '73; I remember waiting in line for gas," Laskowski said. "If there is a disruption in the oil supply it will be very quickly elevated into a disaster." Breault said she hopes to someday band together with her neighbors to form a self-sufficient community. Women will always be having babies, she notes, and she imagines her skills as a midwife will always be in demand. For now, she is readying for the more immediate work ahead: There's a root cellar to dig, fruit trees and vegetable plots to plant. She has put a bicycle on layaway, and soon she'll be able to bike to visit her grandkids even if there is no oil at the pump. Whatever the shape of things yet to come, she said, she's done what she can to prepare. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i6GXwx2chQltK3liINhxHz_uEGSwD90SI8G80 Edited by Tristan da Cunha, Jun 18 2008, 08:46 PM.
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| The CNNP | Jun 18 2008, 09:34 PM Post #2 |
Enforcer
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Try neo-serfdom! |
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| Quaon | Jun 18 2008, 09:36 PM Post #3 |
A Prince Amoung Men-Shoot First and Ask Questions Later
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No. I highly doubt anything even vaguely resembling any of this. |
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| Hastine | Jun 18 2008, 09:43 PM Post #4 |
Universi enim hic sumus.
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Maybe. Maybe not. Depends on weither we are willing to look for more oil (they've already found 25% of the world's reserves up in the Arctic), and then use that until we find a way to get off oil and use another energy source. It'd be kind of cool to experience I Am Legend of a different kind in RL, though. :P
Edited by Hastine, Jun 18 2008, 09:45 PM.
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| A.Q. | Jun 18 2008, 09:44 PM Post #5 |
Beautiful Snowflake
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They all laughed at me when I bought those Stinger missiles, but they won't be laughing for long. <strokes missile launcher obsessively, eye twitches> |
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| Ulgania | Jun 18 2008, 10:18 PM Post #6 |
A better Zarathustra has never rode a horse
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We could all stand not to be pants-on-head-retarded about consumption though. I save a ton of energy by using my laptop for media/gaming than a TV/consoles. My town and a lot of areas around my area is/are considering hydro-electric power a lot more since we have it available. Really, the more we switch to hydrogen and electric powered cars the less oil we use, and the less flying we do the better. Then again I'm a cooledge student anyway so I don't need to consume a lot of resources and I am allowed to have an opinion. |
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| Menhad | Jun 18 2008, 10:24 PM Post #7 |
ET2(IDW)
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Russia has found a lot of oil in Sibera... But yes, we need nuclear and other sorces of engery. Wind, hydro, tidal, solar. I live in the sun shine state, Florida could supply its engery needs with solar only. And we wouldn't cover up the entire state doing so. States like Florida, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona need to get the solar engery going |
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| Paradise | Jun 18 2008, 10:25 PM Post #8 |
Resident bureaucrat
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I'm worried about the american economic system, but I highly doubt it will lead to the "Collapse of society"... |
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| flumes | Jun 18 2008, 10:27 PM Post #9 |
CLEVELAND ROCKS!
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:dry: I think those people are taking it to a little bit of an extreme... The wonderful thing behind free market economics is that as demand increases and their is no supply, their is a shortage, with that shortage is an increased incentive to provide the good. Does anyone really doubt we are that far off a somewhat efficent energy source at the very least with the potential profit it would bring!?!?? I always am more of the optimist on things, but come on.. I've always wondered "what would I do" in an apocalypse like situation... Get a gun, and batter down! Regional governments anyone!! Great Lakes Confederacy FTW!!! :smoking: |
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| New Harumf | Jun 19 2008, 08:23 AM Post #10 |
Bloodthirsty Unicorn
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As future president and commander and chief of the Great Lakes Confederacy I promise . . . . . . . Oops, let that out of the bag. Nah, the "Mad Max" scenario here would only be possible with a complete, total collapse with the rule of law - likely in an all-out nuke attack but otherwise unlikely. Compare the situation in New Orleans after Katrina - breakdown of law, violence, people demanding governmental help that wasn't there - with the situation in Iowa today after the flooding and levy breaks - rule of law in tact, no violence, people helping each other. The latter will be the norm, though there will be some of the former, but not much. Eventually, congress will have to give in to the need to drill, and they will. They will also need to take steps to regulate oil futures, and they will. Local malitias may be required for protection of local communities, and that will be fine, but I don't see the individual compound being so important. |
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| Nag Ehgoeg | Jun 19 2008, 09:43 AM Post #11 |
The Devil's Advocate
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You American's have some serious fear mongering in your press. But even with a global depression held at bay by a razors edge and oil running out, we're not going to have that kind of break down. We're not even due anything as bad as the Great Depression. Comprimises will have to be made. Alternative energy is the future. NH is completely right in his post. Don't get me wrong, people eating local food and moving into homesteads is a good thing. Sure they're completely batshit crazy and comprise of about ten thousand hyper-religious nut cases and crackpots... but learning independance is a good thing. If nothing else, these homesteads will be the last bastons of humanity when the zombie plague breaks out. (I shit you not. Zombie plague is far more likely to end of the world via lack of oil... though the chances of that happening are pretty insignificant. Nuclear war is much more likely to kill us all... and if all nations adhere to their MAD policies, then that'll be the end of humanity. If they don't... then these homesteads will be the people who survive.) |
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| New Harumf | Jun 19 2008, 10:22 AM Post #12 |
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
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Considering the problems here with, for example, tomatos, I am currently ONLY buying locally grown produce, and if it ain't in season, well, I don't need fresh strawberries in January, do I? What is causing the outbreak of e-coli and Sam & Ella in our vegitables? Well, I'll tell ya, bunkie - Mexican migrant workers are shitting on our food cause they don't like us, got it? After the tomats are washed, they're taking their dumps where you don't want it. It's called mean-spirited revenge, and they know our government won't do a thing about it because everyone is too afraid of insulting the Mexican community. Nuff said. |
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| Devin Wire | Jun 19 2008, 10:51 AM Post #13 |
Captain
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There was a sociologist named Erving Goffman that argued that the Collapse of Society would be caused by thinking too much about the Collapse of Society. He argued that such sensationalism and so called 'fear mongering' in the press would cause panic. |
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| Nag Ehgoeg | Jun 19 2008, 11:00 AM Post #14 |
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The Devil's Advocate
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Smart man. |
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| Catholic Europe | Jun 19 2008, 05:42 PM Post #15 |
Spammer
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You Americans are so paranoid and scared. I don't think anything like that will happen in any of our lifetimes. |
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| Nag Ehgoeg | Jun 19 2008, 05:59 PM Post #16 |
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The Devil's Advocate
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I believe I commented on this. We are, however, heading for a global depression. Economic comprimises will have to be made. People's disposable income will dry up. But life will go on. Eventually we'll run out of oil. Prices will go up. Life will go on. There's no great need for panic. It's not like the abolishion of slavery led to the end of the world - despite the fact that all major economies were based on slave labour at one point. It's the same thing. |
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| Quaon | Jun 19 2008, 10:30 PM Post #17 |
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A Prince Amoung Men-Shoot First and Ask Questions Later
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-ignore this post- What happened to the delete function? Edited by Quaon, Jun 19 2008, 10:31 PM.
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| Paradise | Jun 19 2008, 10:58 PM Post #18 |
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Resident bureaucrat
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Known bug. They say it should be fixed "soon". |
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| The CNNP | Jun 19 2008, 11:11 PM Post #19 |
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Enforcer
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Paranoid, it takes a lot to scare me...I teach! But it would be unwise for us as a society to continue at the rate we are going. At least in the US, we have a very flawed socio-economic system that is buckling because of events that never should have occurred. It is just now that all the window dressings are starting to tatter. |
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| Rhadamanthus | Jun 20 2008, 08:38 AM Post #20 |
Legitimist
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I'm fairly certain (about 70/30) that modern society will breakdown and prove unmanagable within my lifetime, or within say 20 years of my death, and mankind will revert to largely pre-modern modes of living. |
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| New Harumf | Jun 20 2008, 09:17 AM Post #21 |
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
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At no time in my lifetime did I think the future would be less advanced than the past. I witnessed the atomic age develop, space flight, men on the moon and the rise of computers. Now, however, as less money is being devoted to scientific exploration and more diverted to war and unequal social programs, you might be right. I never would have thought the last human would leave earth's atmosphere in the 70's! Our priorities are screwed and as a result, the hopes of my youth are rapidly diminishing. |
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| flumes | Jun 20 2008, 04:54 PM Post #22 |
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CLEVELAND ROCKS!
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Have faith in me! :king: :thumbup: :whistling: :nuke: :huh: I like new smilies too much. |
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| Catholic Europe | Jun 20 2008, 09:22 PM Post #23 |
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Spammer
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That is why you should have had kids, to instil these ideas and to make the world a better place. To be honest with you, fuck knows what I am saying! |
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| Eleytheria-Duo | Jun 21 2008, 12:07 AM Post #24 |
Resident Bystander
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I need to get involved in some uber-geek society hell-bent on mastering space faring, as soon as civilization breaks down and everyone has Blackberry and Cellphone withdraws and starts killing each other in the streets for batteries, we steal all that we need and get the hell off of Earth, build biodomes on Mars and let all you Earthlings systematically exterminate each other over solar battery rechargers... In all seriousness, though, Hydrocarbons are quite abundant... We don't need to burn oil to burn energy when we can turn to other sources for our energy needs. Sure it may not be as efficient as oil, but when there comes a time where there is no oil left to burn, there will be a need for an alternative. If it be just as damaging or more to the planet is irrelevant if millions, nay even billions, of human lives are at stake. I mean Jesus if you can extract minerals from a rock to use as energy, then if it comes down to it, what's a few missing mountains to keep human civilization going? Progress towards an ultimate goal is inherently destructive to something, it requires resources to achieve progress, resources that are spent and used, which came from a source. Some sources regenerate and regrow on their own with the seasons, others form over the lifetimes of entire species' histories, or even longer. This may be coming from an overly-ambitious and dedicated astronomer, but Humans' future is becoming less about staying on Earth, and more about going further into space. There are other planets in our Solar System filled with elements that could be burned to drive our man-made creations, and our planet can only support so many people and at the same time raise t he resources to tend to them. History has taught us that Empires that stopped pushing the edge in development, ultimately died. When most of the human race does the same thing, its a bad sign indeed... |
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| New Harumf | Jun 21 2008, 08:43 AM Post #25 |
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Bloodthirsty Unicorn
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You've hit a nerve with that one. Maybe that's why I hang out on forums with a bunch of impressionable, smart, articulate youths. :stupid: :smoking: :uglysmile: |
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