Oil Prices

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Oil Prices; Related to the Bilderbergers
Topic Started: Jun 11 2008, 10:42 PM (125 Views)
The CNNP	Jun 11 2008, 10:42 PM Post #1
Enforcer Posts: 1,857 Group: Members Member #198 Joined: November 10, 2005	The price of oil and the price we pay at the pump has everyone in this nation in a frenzy trying to figure out why five gallons costs a little more every time we pump it in. If you talk to a man from the oil business, he will give you his take on the subject. If you talk to an economist, he's going to tell you another story. Me, I'm just a simple teacher and historian, but I'm going to give you my take on it anyway. Right now, the Congress is panicking, trying to figure out a solution to the gas prices in America which went above $4 on average this week. We have two political parties who find themselves in a stalemate situation, as neither one can justify its respective solutions. The Democrats, as a whole want to tax the problem out of existence. In other words, the want to take away tax breaks to the major oil companies. This debatable solution could cause many more problems than it fixes, because the oil companies will get that money whether it be through tax breaks or haulting supply to drive the prices right back up. The Republicans want to venture out and explore new areas for potential drilling on a domestic scale. This would have seemed like the logical choice about ten years ago, but when the Republicans had both houses of Congress, they failed to get this through. In fact, every time a bill has come up that calls for drilling on American soil, it has been knocked down by Republicans and Democrats. Meanwhile, experts are baffled as to why the prices are going up in the first place. Both American and foreign economists and oil companies are in agreement that oil supplies are up, which would normally cause the price to fall if the market was in control. Now let's take a look at this picture for a second. We have one political party that cannot find a solution, and we have another political party who cannot find a solution. This could be due entirely to the fact that we have expert economists who cannot find the source of the problem. Would you have a brain surgeon operate on you before a diagnosis? We need to step back for a moment and try to figure out what is ailing us before we prescribe the medicine. If it's not supply and demand driving up prices, then what is it? It is a very touchy and volatile situation, but here's how I understand it. The IMF/World Bank gives out enormous loans to third world nations. These are denominated in DSR's. These loans are set up to fail. Once the private corporate contractors (Haliburton) who go into these poverty stricken nations are paid off, then the country (Brazil) goes bankrupt. In other words, they tell the IMF that they will not be repaying their loans. The IMF in turn forgives the loans. Here's where the oil comes in. In order to get a return on their investment in a nation like Brazil or Columbia, the IMF has experts who sit at computers. These people tell the oil producing nations of the world what they will pay them for a barrel of oil that day. When the price soars to let's say $139 a barrel, this drives the price of gasoline up at the pump. The important thing is that the value of the barrel of oil is not really $139. This is an artificial number juiced up by guy behind a desk. Once we exceed the true value of the gas we pump, the rest is a tax that we pay so that the IMF can retrieve the money lost on their third world loans. Oil has gone up over $100 in the past couple of years. With increasing supplies, this number doesn't make any sense. There has to be an outside force manipulating it. The IMF/World Bank is the only private institution in the world that is powerful and rich enough to speculate on that level. Go check out the patterns of loan and debt forgiveness by this predatory institution and the correlation with the rise in oil prices.



Ulgania	Jun 11 2008, 11:11 PM Post #2
A better Zarathustra has never rode a horse Posts: 4,041 Group: Members Member #450 Joined: June 3, 2008	Hmm. Nice call on that one. I used to assume that it was the petroleum producing countries encouraging large scale speculation in order to get more profits, but ditched that notion when Saudi Arabia determined for themselves that supply and demand wasn't the problem, and that there was another contributing factor. Mind you, I've always been relatively against the World Bank since SAPs in general tend to deregulate markets and create a greater rich-poor divide in most of the countries they're used in..



Paradise	Jun 11 2008, 11:32 PM Post #3
Resident bureaucrat Posts: 2,268 Group: Admin Member #1 Joined: December 23, 2003	Not really. There are two factors to take into account to understand increases in oil prices: - Supply and demand; - Speculation. It is not a secret that oil stocks of the World are diminishing. It is not a secret also that emerging economies are asking more and more oil each year (China, India are the most obvious examples). If supply decreases and demand increases, this WILL lead to a price increase. The other one, speculation, is more subtle as it is inter-temporal. To understand it, let me illustrate it with an example: Say you own a barrel of oil that actually worths $120 and experts tell you that this same very barrel will worth $150 in one year, what are you going to do? Are you going to sell it now at $120 or wait? You're going to wait, because you can get more for it in one year. By waiting, you implicitly reduce the oil supply. Unfortunately, we can't individually do anything about supply, demand or speculation. However, we can change our habits: - Buy hybrid cars or small cars that do not consume too much fuel (Yaris!); - Do not waste electricity at home (close your computer/lights/TV when you're finished, buy Energy Star appliances, isolate your house well, don't use the dryer); - If possible, use public transportation. If not, carpool is your friend. You may also want to use your bicycle; - Etc.



Porcu	Jun 12 2008, 12:43 AM Post #4
"Work is the curse of the drinking classes." Posts: 4,188 Group: Global Mods Member #415 Joined: February 19, 2008	Paradise Jun 11 2008, 11:32 PM Not really. There are two factors to take into account to understand increases in oil prices: - Supply and demand; - Speculation. It is not a secret that oil stocks of the World are diminishing. It is not a secret also that emerging economies are asking more and more oil each year (China, India are the most obvious examples). If supply decreases and demand increases, this WILL lead to a price increase. The other one, speculation, is more subtle as it is inter-temporal. To understand it, let me illustrate it with an example: Say you own a barrel of oil that actually worths $120 and experts tell you that this same very barrel will worth $150 in one year, what are you going to do? Are you going to sell it now at $120 or wait? You're going to wait, because you can get more for it in one year. By waiting, you implicitly reduce the oil supply. Unfortunately, we can't individually do anything about supply, demand or speculation. However, we can change our habits: - Buy hybrid cars or small cars that do not consume too much fuel (Yaris!); - Do not waste electricity at home (close your computer/lights/TV when you're finished, buy Energy Star appliances, isolate your house well, don't use the dryer); - If possible, use public transportation. If not, carpool is your friend. You may also want to use your bicycle; - Etc. Paradise hit the nail on the head about the speculation. One could even look back in time all the way back to Black Tuesday and the Wall Street Collapse of 1929. Speculation plays an enormous part in the overall price level of goods, ranging from common stocks to oil levels. If you believe that your stock in Company A will raise in the near future you will hang onto that stock, even though you have no real idea that the company will continue to do well. Conversely, if you suddenly overhear that Company A is instead looking at a downturn you will be given an incentive to sell your stock; again usually with no real details or proof. Obviously the NYSE crash is an extreme case but the principle can be applied in a much larger scale. The problem with many hybrid cars is that its just not practical to drive one right now. Many times you'd have to drive an ungodly amount in order to counter the cost of gas you'd fill with a regular sedan. The other two suggestions are just fine :D ...



A.Q.	Jun 12 2008, 05:20 AM Post #5
Beautiful Snowflake Posts: 906 Group: Members Member #429 Joined: April 13, 2008	Every morning, I wake up at 5:30AM to bike the 3 miles to school, then bike home at 4:00PM in 105 degree heat. That's at least six miles a day. Somebody better give me a medal or something. (And no, the fact that I am legally forbidden from driving doesn't demean this at all.)



The CNNP	Jun 12 2008, 07:40 AM Post #6
Enforcer Posts: 1,857 Group: Members Member #198 Joined: November 10, 2005	Paradise Jun 11 2008, 11:32 PM Not really. There are two factors to take into account to understand increases in oil prices: - Supply and demand; - Speculation. It is not a secret that oil stocks of the World are diminishing. It is not a secret also that emerging economies are asking more and more oil each year (China, India are the most obvious examples). If supply decreases and demand increases, this WILL lead to a price increase. The other one, speculation, is more subtle as it is inter-temporal. To understand it, let me illustrate it with an example: Say you own a barrel of oil that actually worths $120 and experts tell you that this same very barrel will worth $150 in one year, what are you going to do? Are you going to sell it now at $120 or wait? You're going to wait, because you can get more for it in one year. By waiting, you implicitly reduce the oil supply. Unfortunately, we can't individually do anything about supply, demand or speculation. However, we can change our habits: - Buy hybrid cars or small cars that do not consume too much fuel (Yaris!); - Do not waste electricity at home (close your computer/lights/TV when you're finished, buy Energy Star appliances, isolate your house well, don't use the dryer); - If possible, use public transportation. If not, carpool is your friend. You may also want to use your bicycle; - Etc. The problem with supply and demand, at least in the United States is that the last refinery was built back in the 1970's. A friend of mine who works for FedEx was in a board meeting with Fred Smith, CEO; and even Mr. Smith echoed my suspicions. Our refineries are working at full to even overload capacity. So, even if we increase the supply, it would have little affect on the current prices. As for Peak Oil, evidence has been produced to the contrary - that is just corporatism's way of manipulating the economy for their own private gains. I will definitely concede on speculation. Roughly 40-60% of the oil prices are pure speculation. Currently I do drive a hybrid, 2007 Honda Civic. I get anywhere from 42-52 miles per gallon. True it consumes gas like any other vehicle but it takes a lot longer before I need a fill up. Plus, there are some driving secrets that all drivers ought to consider when driving that will "ease" the pains we are facing: -Don't be a speed demon! (on open highways, do NOT speed anymore than 55-60 mph) -Make your trips count. -Fill up as early as you can, yes, gas station will charge you for the gas vapor you put into the car due to the heat. -Pump slowly, again, gas vapor they will charge you for it.



Ulgania	Jun 12 2008, 08:18 AM Post #7
A better Zarathustra has never rode a horse Posts: 4,041 Group: Members Member #450 Joined: June 3, 2008	Yeah, there are general things you can do while driving. Keeping RPMs under 1700 is one. It's a little harder to do in my car but I usually keeping at 2000 - 2200 and under. Not taking off and accelerating slowly instead helps. Change oil, get brakes worked on, get spark plugs changed, etc... Owning a hybrid's a great idea. I'd love too, but I'm a college student who lives in a very rural area. Because of this I need transportation, and there frankly is no public transportation available. That is, there's none to speak of for most of Vermont (very little bus service, our former governor also had train tracks torn out of the ground for some stupid reason (yeah, gg Howard Dean)). Since I don't have a lot of money, that means I suddenly go from looking for an environmentally friendly car to one that I can pay for without impacting college. Kinda' sucks.



Paradise	Jun 12 2008, 05:24 PM Post #8
Resident bureaucrat Posts: 2,268 Group: Admin Member #1 Joined: December 23, 2003	Are there any governmental "rebates" when you purchase a hybrid car in the US? Here, we receive a CAN$4000 check from the federal government when we buy a hybrid car. That's a big relief, because hybrid cars are more expansive than their non-hybrid counterpart.



Ulgania	Jun 12 2008, 08:16 PM Post #9
A better Zarathustra has never rode a horse Posts: 4,041 Group: Members Member #450 Joined: June 3, 2008	That's odd. I've seen a lot of relatively affordable hybrids (out of a cooledge student's price range, but still better than most cars). I bet there's some kind of hybrid write-off on taxes or something.



Porcu	Jun 12 2008, 09:18 PM Post #10
"Work is the curse of the drinking classes." Posts: 4,188 Group: Global Mods Member #415 Joined: February 19, 2008	Paradise Jun 12 2008, 05:24 PM Are there any governmental "rebates" when you purchase a hybrid car in the US? Here, we receive a CAN$4000 check from the federal government when we buy a hybrid car. That's a big relief, because hybrid cars are more expansive than their non-hybrid counterpart. I haven't heard or read about anything like that...I also doubt it would do much for most Americans in terms of providing enough of an incentive to drop their cars, SUVs, or pickups...



Al Araam	Jun 12 2008, 09:29 PM Post #11
Demigod of Death & Inactivity Posts: 3,486 Group: Global Mods Member #102 Joined: February 19, 2005	I'd like to echo the idea that driving a fuel-efficient car can go a long ways towards ensuring the high price of gas doesn't hit quite as close to home. I drive a '86 VW Golf which usually goes somewhere between 40 and 45 miles on a gallon of diesel (and I'm sure if you can buy one for far less than than any sort of hybrid would cost you). So, that's also an alternative. For those of you concerned with the environment, buying a new car is the most basic form of recycling. If you're honestly concerned with the amount of money you'll have to spend on gas, saving money on the car itself obviously can't hurt. :P



The CNNP	Jun 12 2008, 10:37 PM Post #12
Enforcer Posts: 1,857 Group: Members Member #198 Joined: November 10, 2005	Paradise Jun 12 2008, 05:24 PM Are there any governmental "rebates" when you purchase a hybrid car in the US? Here, we receive a CAN$4000 check from the federal government when we buy a hybrid car. That's a big relief, because hybrid cars are more expansive than their non-hybrid counterpart. None. The only discount I got was from negotiating. The sticker was 26,800. Bought it for 22,000. I was actually going for 21,800, but this was as good as I could get. It is really a great ride.



flumes	Jun 13 2008, 08:09 PM Post #13
CLEVELAND ROCKS! Posts: 2,429 Group: Veterans Member #142 Joined: May 22, 2005	I thought their was a federal tax rebate for certain hybrid cars??? I could've sworn their was. At the same time I remember reading (two or so years ago) that such rebates along with the gas savings still did not make it worth it. My parents pay for my gas thank god... Good thing too as they have me driving my mom's chevy suburban the 2 miles or so to school and 5 or so to work so she can drive my little ford escort around with all the miles she puts on it. Even the Escort is a pain to fill up anymore, but the Suburban... :( I personally think the whole gas situation is a combination of many basic economic factors... Supply/Demand (very large increase in demand in China and India mainly) , speculation (takes 10 years on average for investment to pay off), lack of a "good" substitute (hybrids aren't where they need to be, mass transit isn't perfect at all), weakened US Dollar, ah the list goes on and on. Being the optimistic person I am, I expect a good alternative fuel source within the next fews years to become widely available. Their are just too many smart people out their with to much of a demand for it not to happen! If anyone on here is that smart person, PM me, I am all for investing in your genius-ness ^^

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