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East Playoff Projection; ESPN's Jon Barry
Topic Started: Mar 12 2008, 03:40 AM (748 Views)
Vinnie
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I hate to shorten our goals because as a three seed and with as well as we've played against Boston and Detroit in the regular season this year, we have a shot, all be it a long shot. However, with that being said I think last year was a step with finally getting into the playoffs in the Howard era, a good first taste for a lot of the guys. Now it's time to get out of the first round, not only this franchise needs it since it's been 12 years, but this group needs it. I think if this team wins 50 games and makes it to the 2nd round and gives Detroit a good fight, the season has been a victory. The ultimate goal is a championship, but this group is young and will have the experience under their belt come next year if they do fail this year.
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CLos
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Eyriq
Mar. 12, 2008 11:13 PM
I think he is the weak link when you compare their front court to ours, same with Perkins. Howard/Lewis/Turk is just too dominant.

Besides, the point is not whether our front court is a real front court (?) it is how it matches up with other team’s front courts, and in my mind there is a good argument to be made that it is the best for match up purposes (though Phoenix would give us fits). The Magic’s real match up weaknesses lie in the back court. Mogans are serviceable at the 2, and our point guard play has really been up lately, but over the long run those two spots seem to be what separates us from being real contenders.

Plugging Battie back in the lineup may or may not resolve that. He just is not that inspiring of a player to put those concerns to rest, especially when it requires moving Turk from his natural position. He may become more turnover prone yet if defended by smaller, quicker 2 guards. So if it isn’t broke, and our front court is not broke, then don't fix it!

Sure we are good OFFENSIVELY, but Rashard Lewis can't guard PFs that post up. He would get killed all day. Our backcourt isn't that bad. Bogans/Evans are serviceable players. Sure our PGs are iffy and we definitely need to address that problem over the off-season somehow. (Otis can you do something please?) I would want to plug back Battie into the starting lineup because he has a decent jumper and can help us out defensively down low and getting rebounds. I think Turkoglu should move back to coming off the bench. I know it doesn't make sense but this small lineup can't work for long and Turkoglu won't be able to play SG.
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CLos
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Eyriq
Mar. 13, 2008 01:09 PM
What, with Wallace shooting threes and McDyess shooting J's? Don't get me wrong, they are more physical, and Prince defends like nobodies business, but D12 and Lewis can handle their share and Turk and Prince are a wash. So slight advantage Magic. Actually, I think Detroit has one of the weaker front courts of the top five teams in the east. Averaging out their PER for their three front court players backs this up, if that is worth anything.

Wallace is a good defender as well as a good offensive weapon. He can post you up with either hand with that unblockable fadeaway or shoot a 3 on you if you give him room. McDyess is also good shooting his midrange jumper and also gives Dwight fits when he defends him. Prince has good perimeter defense (although somewhat overrated in my opinion) and is a good 3pt shooter. Lewis can't guard Rasheed and McDyess does a good job guarding Dwight. Prince and Turkoglu are about even although I think that Prince can guard Turkoglu. Detroit having one of the weaker front courts? Especially of the top 5 teams in the East?
Okay there's Boston with Pierce, Garnett, and Perkins. Pierce and Garnett with the offense and Perkins with his rebounding and underrated defense. There's Detroit and Orlando which has already been stated. The next team is Cleveland. When healthy, LeBron, Ben Wallace, and Big Z. The offense is somewhat there (LeBron mostly) but the defense isn't whatsoever. Ben Wallace has become soft and definitely isn't the same as when he was with Detroit. The 5th team is Toronto and I guess its Bargnani, Bosh, and Nesterovic? I'm not sure who their 3rd guy is but when it comes to the playoffs, Detroit has the most experienced team out of every team mentioned.
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Eyriq
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Moon is the 3 for Toronto.

Check out this site: http://www.82games.com/0708/0708ORL5.HTM

You notice the third chart has the Magic’s Net Production by position, and our 4 is about a wash against the opposing 4. Our 2 however is the team’s weak link.

I think that having Lewis at the 4 long term is doable, and Battie would be a significant down grade. So if you are going to take Turk out of the starting 5 and switch Lewis over to the 3, the Magic would need a much better 4 which they could get through free agency. The only problem then would be that their hands would be tied to upgrade the 2. Ugh.
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CLos
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Eyriq
Mar. 13, 2008 10:53 PM
Moon is the 3 for Toronto.

Check out this site: http://www.82games.com/0708/0708ORL5.HTM

You notice the third chart has the Magic’s Net Production by position, and our 4 is about a wash against the opposing 4. Our 2 however is the team’s weak link.

I think that having Lewis at the 4 long term is doable, and Battie would be a significant down grade. So if you are going to take Turk out of the starting 5 and switch Lewis over to the 3, the Magic would need a much better 4 which they could get through free agency. The only problem then would be that their hands would be tied to upgrade the 2. Ugh.

In our SGs defense, Bogans and Evans aren't much of scorers for us. That's why they are -5.7 points. You guys like Kobe, Ray Allen, and other SGs who avg. around the 20ppg mark when we have Mo Evans and Bogans who get like 10ppg. Also, seeing the PF area, we are at -3.1 rebounds. We also get -.4. Sure, Rashard Lewis gets us points, but we need rebounding down low and defense which could come up with blocks.
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Eyriq
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See, for me the intriguing thing about having Lewis at the 4 is my fascination with Dirk. Lewis is not at Dirks level in rebounding or defense, but the skill sets are very similar. Maybe Lewis can put on a few more pounds and start muscling some rebounds!

Oh, and in regards to our SG's, the only defense they need is that they are back ups being stuck in a starter's role. I like them both but not as long term starters.
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