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Witten the best...
Topic Started: Jun 30 2006, 01:02 PM (125 Views)
KOCUR

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Very interesting read - I'd like to check his book out ....

Quote:
 
Who is the best receiving tight end in the NFL? The prevailing wisdom is that either Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez deserves the distinction, but the metrics I compiled from the 2005 season for Scientific Football 2006 (available for preorder at www.TheFootballScientist.com) tell a different story.

I use three metrics to measure the pass-catching ability of a tight end (40 receptions to qualify). The first two are TYPCA (total yards per catchable attempt) and success percentage. The third metric is derived by multiplying TYPCA by the success percentage. This last metric combination provides the best overall balance between production and consistency and is the metric I used to identify the best receiving tight end.

For much of the 2005 season, Gates would have been the easy answer to this question. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Gates averaged 9.3 TYPCA and posted a 74 percent success rate, which translated to a league-leading number.

However, Gates' numbers took a nosedive after he injured his leg in Week 11 against Buffalo. In the final six weeks of the season, he averaged only 4.5 TYPCA and had a 48.1 percent success rate. The drop in production caused Gates to drop to third in the league in TYPCA, 11th in success percentage and seventh in the combined metric.

Gonzalez was forced to block more often last year because of the Chiefs' offensive line injuries, but he was still a vertical passing threat. He ranked first among tight ends in medium pass attempts and fourth in deep pass attempts. He also ranked first in defensive penalty yards drawn and had the second-lowest dropped pass percentage among tight ends. Despite all these excellent numbers, Gonzalez still ranked only fifth among tight ends in TYPCA and sixth in the combination metric.

Jeremy Shockey is another name that might come to mind. Shockey did rank third among tight ends in catchable attempts, fourth in successful plays and second in total yards. Unfortunately, he posted a 61 percent success rate, next to last among qualifying tight ends. He does well when he catches a pass, but having inaccurate Eli Manning as your quarterback almost assures your success percentage will be low.


Witten didn't rack up these numbers strictly on short passes. Witten was excellent at medium passes, ranking second in medium TYPCA and second in medium success percentage. He wasn't the best deep threat, but managed to rank fifth in deep success percentage.

I expect Gates to bounce back from his injuries to reclaim the throne as the best pass-catching tight end in 2006, but until then, he'll have to take a backseat to Witten.

Here are the top five in each category:

Yards Per Attempt
1. Jerramy Stevens -- 8.9
2. Jason Witten -- 8.7
3. Antonio Gates -- 8.4
4. Chris Cooley -- 8.3
5. Tony Gonzalez -- 8.2

Success %
1. Jermaine Wiggins -- 80.5%
2. Alex Smith -- 77.8%
3. Erron Kinney -- 77.8%
4. Chris Cooley -- 77.2%
5. Jason Witten -- 77.0%

Success % x Yards Per Attempt
1. Jason Witten -- 6.7
2. Jerramy Stevens -- 6.5
3. Chris Cooley -- 6.4
4. Todd Heap -- 5.9
5. Erron Kinney -- 5.8

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest book, Scientific Football 2006, is available for preorder at his Web site, http://thefootballscientist.com.
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FloydNbunch
Does WrightNbunch sound good?
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I'd still rather have Gates, in terms of pure numbers Witten was the best, but as the article said...Gates hurt his leg and Gonzalez had to block more. Although thats not to say Witten isn't a great TE.
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MastaR316
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GTFO, give me Shockey over that f*ck.
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Strider
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You're not supposed to give a f*ck about a tight end stat when you see Jerramy Stevens first and second in the league.
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KOCUR

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FloydNbunch
Jul 3 2006, 12:21 AM
I'd still rather have Gates, in terms of pure numbers Witten was the best, but as the article said...Gates hurt his leg and Gonzalez had to block more. Although thats not to say Witten isn't a great TE.

Gates - Yes - WRONG No TE blocked more than Witten due to massive injuries on the OL in fact - incrdulously so they had Keyshawn pass block on a few occassions - that's how bad it got...

Shockey is a bag of sh*t just voted most overrtaed Giant by SI...

Witten DOES NOT drop the futbol - tis why he is 2nd best next to Link Gatez...
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ES03

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KOCUR
Jul 8 2006, 04:47 PM
FloydNbunch
Jul 3 2006, 12:21 AM
I'd still rather have Gates, in terms of pure numbers Witten was the best, but as the article said...Gates hurt his leg and Gonzalez had to block more. Although thats not to say Witten isn't a great TE.

Gates - Yes - WRONG No TE blocked more than Witten due to massive injuries on the OL in fact - incrdulously so they had Keyshawn pass block on a few occassions - that's how bad it got...

Shockey is a bag of sh*t just voted most overrtaed Giant by SI...

Witten DOES NOT drop the futbol - tis why he is 2nd best next to Link Gatez...

Shockey has a great shot at eclipsing 1000 yards receiving this year...Witten will be running around complaining that TO gets too many looks...
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KOCUR

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ES03
Jul 8 2006, 07:42 PM
KOCUR
Jul 8 2006, 04:47 PM
FloydNbunch
Jul 3 2006, 12:21 AM
I'd still rather have Gates, in terms of pure numbers Witten was the best, but as the article said...Gates hurt his leg and Gonzalez had to block more. Although thats not to say Witten isn't a great TE.

Gates - Yes - WRONG No TE blocked more than Witten due to massive injuries on the OL in fact - incrdulously so they had Keyshawn pass block on a few occassions - that's how bad it got...

Shockey is a bag of sh*t just voted most overrtaed Giant by SI...

Witten DOES NOT drop the futbol - tis why he is 2nd best next to Link Gatez...

Shockey has a great shot at eclipsing 1000 yards receiving this year...Witten will be running around complaining that TO gets too many looks...

Witten doesn't complain feckball that's your a-hole TE....Shockey drops big passes is all he does...Witten is Mr.Polygrip not to mention the best route running TE since Novacek
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moomoo24
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I think Heath Miller has a good shot at become an upper level tight end. Solid blocker, solid pass catcher. Not as flash as some of the other guys but does everything you ask a true tight end to do.
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KOCUR

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moomoo24
Jul 9 2006, 12:49 AM
I think Heath Miller has a good shot at become an upper level tight end. Solid blocker, solid pass catcher. Not as flash as some of the other guys but does everything you ask a true tight end to do.

Keep an eye on our other weapon - Anthony Fasano....Love the pick - gives the Boys 2 pass catchers and a Bulldog blocker in Fasano...by mid point last season teams noted that when Dan Campbell was in the game it was almost always a Run play - now we're gonna double up and go Single back 2 Wideouts.... :yes:
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Strider
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moomoo24
Jul 9 2006, 12:49 AM
I think Heath Miller has a good shot at become an upper level tight end.  Solid blocker, solid pass catcher.  Not as flash as some of the other guys but does everything you ask a true tight end to do.

I think he'll be solid, but he doesn't have "special" talent. They might go to him a lot (since he and Ward are the only reliable returning receivers) and that would inflate his stats, but he's not in that upper echelon when it comes to ability. He'll run you an 8-yard curl, sit between the zone and pick up the first down. If you get him matched up on a slow SLB, he can take him 20 yards on a post if the safety doesn't cut over. But not much more. He's not the matchup nightmare like some of the elite TEs. But, fortunately for him, the Steelers offense always finds ways to get the ball in the endzone inside the 10. Mo'f*cker will catch 7 wide open TDs in the back of the endzone.

"Say Strider, who do you like at tight end?" Dallas Clark. Jump on that dick and love it. He's kinda soft and has gotten Jack'd Up almost as many times as Putzier, but as a receiver, he's got elite talent. Only had the ball thrown to him 51 times last year (too many options in Indy) but if they went to him more, I have no doubt he'd put up great numbers.

Credit to Witten. In terms of talent, he's not better than Shockey, but he is a better route runner and the man did catch 73% of the passes thrown to him. Different (smarter) offense than the Giants and he was used differently, but that's still an impressive percentage. There's running backs who don't catch swing passes at that clip.

Disagreed on Fasano as a pass catcher. I see Anthony Becht with better hands. Aside from not having much speed, he's got the agility of someone his size - unlike some of the new-age freaks in the league. He doesn't run sharp routes. He won't get separation at the NFL level and the few catches he makes will be in traffic. Either that or they pull the Redskins sh*t and screen it to him. f*cking Cooley hasn't caught a legitimate pass since ever. But I don't see Parcells using a TE screen on a guy who will chug it 6 yards and get tackled. If it's done, those would go to Witten. He got drafted because he's a "Parcells guy." (1) He's a guinea so he's got some fire. (2) He doesn't have much talent but he tries to compensate by busting his ass and being scrappy. He'd suck coach's dick if they tell him it'll convert the 3rd & 5. (3) He's a good run blocker. He'd seal like a mutha f*cka on those sweeps off RT that ND kept running (too much) with Walker. (4) Playing for Weiss, he's been familiarized a little with a pro offense. (5) He fights for every inch on the field. He's one of those that has to get tackled to get tackled. He's an ideal No. 2 tight end cuz what he brings is what you'd ask of a No. 2 tight end. But don't expect receiving numbers worth anything from him.

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by mid point last season teams noted that when Dan Campbell was in the game it was almost always a Run play


It took them that long? The stats lie. Campbell never caught a pass for more than 4 yards with the Giants. Short hitch....body-catch, then he might as well sit down.
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