Estrada’s ‘all-out war’ was a failure.

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Estrada’s ‘all-out war’ was a failure.; Get over it.
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 26 2011, 11:36 AM (1,430 Views)
Frenzy	Oct 26 2011, 11:36 AM Post #1
Member Posts: 1,251 Group: Regulars Member #78 Joined: August 11, 2004	Estrada’s ‘all-out war’ was a failure. Get over it. I’m stupefied by the call from many Filipinos for the Aquino administration to launch an “all-out war” against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front similar to the one waged in 2000 by then president Joseph Estrada. But I’m glad that, so far, Aquino has rejected the notion, saying that so much blood was shed in that war. And it was a failure, may I point out. People seem to forget that there is a civil war going on in Mindanao. This conflict has never stopped, regardless of the peace process, regardless of the cease-fire agreements signed. War is the context of the deaths of those soldiers in Basilan and Zamboanga Sibugay. We should accept this and hope that both soldiers and rebels adhere to human rights and international law as they wage it. In spite of — probably because of – Estrada’s “all-out war,” the MILF is stronger than it’s ever been, if not militarily then at least politically. Regardless of Estrada’s insistence that his kind of war is the answer to the MILF’s attacks, the MILF still exists. It may have been crippled in 2000 but it obviously survived. If anything, Estrada’s war may have helped the MILF become a better revolutionary group. Tactically, its forces are as mobile and dispersed as they’ve ever been, which may explain the guerrilla-type attacks that it has been launching in different places. Politically, the MILF managed to gain the moral high ground after the 2000 “all-out war,” mainly because that war was so atrocious not so much to the MILF but to the civilians in Muslim Mindanao. That war’s atrociousness, in fact, enabled the MILF to gain sympathy not just among Moros but from civil society and even from the international community. That the person who ordered the war turned out later to be a corrupt president who was later ousted by the people in a popular uprising only added to the MILF’s political stock, which it has been using in the current negotiations with the Aquino government. That it managed to come this far in the negotiations with the government suggests that it came out stronger from the devastation of Estrada’s “all-out war” and the other battles, albeit smaller in scale, since then. Warmongers are urging Aquino to use the failed and catastrophic “all-out war” as an option against the MILF. They obviously do not have the president’s, let alone the civilians’, interest in mind. http://carlosconde.com/2011/10/23/estradas...re-get-over-it/



mazingu	Oct 26 2011, 11:45 AM Post #2
Member Posts: 585 Group: Regulars Member #4,397 Joined: March 24, 2008	Indeed and as what I posted over at PEx: There would have been no MILF to negotiate peace with now if Erap's ALL-OUT war succeeded in defeating and destroying them once and for all. An all-out war is not won by capturing camps, it is won by totally & absolutely defeating and destroying the enemy so no significant number could survive to establish another camp someday.



asianobserve	Oct 26 2011, 11:45 AM Post #3
Member Posts: 944 Group: Regulars Member #6,813 Joined: June 13, 2011	No need for a public "all-out war." We'll only look stupid again. The government can and should conduct a confidential decapitation ops against the most belligerent MILF leadership (Not all MILF leaders, the remaining mnore peaceful will negotiate for a settlement).



paratorpe	Oct 27 2011, 07:03 AM Post #4
Member Posts: 879 Group: Regulars Member #4,250 Joined: February 26, 2008	Get a freakin Predator UAV and search for their leaders or members and bomb it.
	Modernization should prioritize: Patrol Ships with air/sub/ship detection, fast & lightly armed for Navy. Surface Attack Aircraft with anti ship/sub attack capability for Airforce. SAM with Radars, Close AA battery capable of shooting ground targets too for Army. This triangle defense will work together and protect us from external threats.


asianobserve	Oct 27 2011, 08:12 AM Post #5
Member Posts: 944 Group: Regulars Member #6,813 Joined: June 13, 2011	paratorpe Oct 27 2011, 07:03 AM Get a freakin Predator UAV and search for their leaders or members and bomb it. UAV for ops in the jungles of Jolo, Basilan, Central Mindanao? You will need a bigger UAV than a Predator since you must incorporate a Foliage-Penetrating Radar on top of the usual FLIR. More than gadgets, what we sorely need is an extensive and well coordinated human intelligence network. UAVs will be secondary, to verify and act on actionable human intelligence.



flipzi	Oct 27 2011, 09:19 AM Post #6
R-A-T-S Posts: 8,213 Group: Elite Member #71 Joined: August 8, 2004	The Summer 2000 campaign was a big success. It gave the military the mindset that they can defeat a huge rebel force if they do it right. It made the MILF realized that they can be defeated. The experience also gave the military a new understanding on how they can handle the big rebel groups. Estrada was right when he gave the MILF some few camps to seek refuge. The idea was to bring the leaders to the negotiating table. Unfortunately, Gloria Arroyo cut his stay short and ruined the plan. The AFP completely crippled their military capability. The last stage was about to be started. But the negotiation was intercepted by the entry of Gloria Arroyo. We could have completely ended the MILF rebellion during Estrada's administration.
	" Sovereignty resides in the people and all government authority emanates from them! - Art. II Sec 1, Philippine Constitution " " People don't care what we know until they know we care. " getflipzi@yahoo.com


spearhead	Oct 27 2011, 08:04 PM Post #7
DoctorNO, Your Neutral Observer. Posts: 6,903 Group: Regulars Member #655 Joined: February 14, 2006	I think it was a right call to launch that Erap's all-out war back then at first, if they meant to end the war through peace negotiation and with honest policy after the government have captured the MILF's camps. But obviously it wasn't the case, even if Erap was actually a pro-cha cha. I think first of all, what really went wrong was that his administration did not have any effective tactical long term and permanent plans or solution to implement peace with the MILF despite the fact that the previous Ramos administration had already signed peace agreement with the seccesionists. His administration did commit a total negligence in handling the situation, and gave rooms to his political enemies to criticize him with all his stupid misendeavor while in office. If only Erap did act right, and laid out long term solutions to end the war in mindanao, and behaved professionally, then who knows what might have been a failed military operation could turn into a successful solution to end the war in mindanao by permanently decapitating the MILF's capabilities. It was later divulged in a Senate Hearing by then Lt. Antonio Trillanes that the Military was behind these terrorist attacks to justify the "all-out-war" policy of the government which was masterminded by the late Chief of Staff Angelo Reyes, and which included the kidnapping a foreign priest, namely Father Luciano Benedetti; the destruction by arson of Talayan, Maguindanao's municipal hall; the takeover of the Kauswagan Municipal Hall; the bombing of the Lady of Mediatrix boat at Ozamiz City; and the takeover of the Narciso Ramos Highway. Therefore, it is in fact was a failure and this hard lesson should never happened again as it will only cause more harm than good in terms of economic in general and the risk of losing more innocent lives.
	"Men of War must learn the art of numbers or he will not know how to array his troops." - Plato


flipzi	Oct 27 2011, 09:26 PM Post #8
R-A-T-S Posts: 8,213 Group: Elite Member #71 Joined: August 8, 2004	could you give the link that documented the investigation wherein Sen. Trillanes accused Erap of triggering the war? in any cae, what'solid is that the MILF was defeated with the fall of its main camps. that alone tells us that the MILF can be defeated in a military confrontation. why Erap failed to complete the plan (or grab the opportunity) to end the MILF rebellion was because of the entry of Gloria Arroyo.
	" Sovereignty resides in the people and all government authority emanates from them! - Art. II Sec 1, Philippine Constitution " " People don't care what we know until they know we care. " getflipzi@yahoo.com


C.C.	Oct 28 2011, 07:28 PM Post #9
Green-haired Immortal Pizza Witch!! Posts: 676 Group: Regulars Member #5,322 Joined: December 23, 2008	I could have posted this in his blog but he deleted it. Bakit kaya? Quote: Mr. Conde, are you stating we remain in status quo w/ these criminals in which soldiers, policemen and fellow citizens are dying within the time-frame of supposed to be cease fire? It's funny because former president Erap is taking your heat from the recent bloody incidents in Mindanao. Gosh, he left the presidency a decade ago already. The All-out war initiated by Erap did succeed in the short run. Hundreds of rebels surrendered, weapons caches captured, and the most important of all, their camps and training camps fell to the government. If only he finished his term, he would have been able to totally eradicate the MILF, just like what the government of Sri Lanka did to the Tamil-Tiger rebels in a decisive victory and success. But it failed in the long run not because of Erap, but of the entry of Gloria Arroyo. She failed grab the opportunity Erap has opened to finish to longest insurgency in Asia. I suggest you study and learn the successful campaigns of the Sri Lankan government against the Tamil Tiger rebels. In fact, the Tamil-Tigers are stronger and numerous than the MILF. The rebels had their own Air Force, Navy and even operated some midget submarines. But where are they now? GONE!!! The people of Sri Lanka are now enjoying the peace and prosperity, most especially in former rebel hot-spots. If the Sri Lankans are able to do it, we Filipinos can also do it. We are not lesser people than them right? In fact, our Economy is much better than Sri Lanka. What we need is the will, funds and competence. Lastly, as stated by TV5 news anchor Ameline Veloso (a National Defense College graduate) and former senator Dick Gordon in their news program in AKSYON TV41, we should negotiate in the "position of strength" and not in the position of weakness. The GRP should show the MILF who are the "real boss", force them to capitulate under the terms of Republic of the Philippines. Not to keep bowing down to their demands just like our "very good president" is presently doing. Kung magmatigas pa sila, then finish them for the sake of peace, prosperity and safety of Mindanao and its people. I know very well that the majority of Mindanao’s people share the same sentiments I posted in your blog.
	Ay put&! Nahulog....................


spearhead	Oct 28 2011, 08:29 PM Post #10
DoctorNO, Your Neutral Observer. Posts: 6,903 Group: Regulars Member #655 Joined: February 14, 2006	flipzi Oct 27 2011, 09:26 PM could you give the link that documented the investigation wherein Sen. Trillanes accused Erap of triggering the war? I got the information from this links: http://www.scribd.com/doc/56183209/Philippine-Presidents-2 http://www.enotes.com/topic/Joseph_Estrada...gainst_the_MILF
	"Men of War must learn the art of numbers or he will not know how to array his troops." - Plato


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