flipzi

Jul 3 2011, 08:36 PM

Quote:

 

China’s reliance on exports and a controlled currency for growth, for instance, will no longer work if US consumers are engaged in a chronic saving spree, as I believe they will be. Chinese export growth, which averaged 21 percent per year in the last decade, is bound to suffer.

The country’s seemingly inexhaustible pool of cheap labor is expected to peak in 2014, in part due to its rigid one-child policy. By some estimates, ample labor has boosted GDP growth by 1.8 percentage points annually since the late 1970s, but the contraction of the working-age population will reduce growth by 0.7 percentage points by 2030.

Wages are already rising, and even Chinese manufacturers are moving production to Vietnam and Pakistan, where pay levels are a third of China’s. Some factory workers have seen wage increases of 20 percent to 30 percent in the last year or so, with those producing goods for foreign companies seeing especially large boosts. At the same time, better conditions in rural areas have reduced the flow of cheap labor into coastal cities.

hahahaha

I was right.

The US together with EU and UK can deliver a counter-punch.

They can crush China's economy by dumping its exports and moving their investments to Africa, South East Asia, the Middle East, South America and anywhere but the Big Bully China.

When that happens, the economy of China will collapse and its finances even it if has 2 trillion US dollars in reserve would simply be exhausted because of the massive operational cost it has to sustain. That includes its Armed Forces and infrastructure and govt bureaucracy.

It will send its people to another starvation.

The hardest problem is that it's wages are starting to lose competitiveness. They are now beginning to outsource production in Vietnam and Pakistan.

China can only save itself if it will maintain good relations with its neighbors. Its neighbors will somehow support the healthy flow of economic trade.

Kidding aside, im looking at driving China to confront the US by stimulating the war in the Spratly's.

We can even sink their fishing vessels and then blame China for the aggression. Then we can ask the US and the world to denounce China's bullying and enforce a trade embargo.

flipzi

Jul 5 2011, 01:48 AM

not really.

the US and UK helped start China's economy.

but now China's cheap products are being dumped into the US and UK.

what the US and UK must do is gradually lessen their trade investments in China and move their business elsewhere.

this will lessen China's bullying.

right now, China is not just bullying RP but it is bullying the US and other countries by trying to grip the US economy and that of other countries.