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http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354

EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., is one of the Defense Departments combat commands that includes members of the different military service branches, active and reserves, as well as civilian and contract employees. One of its key roles is to help transform the U.S. military's capabilities.

In the foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the USJFC commander, said "Predictions about the future are always risky ... Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America."

The report is one in a series focusing on Mexico's internal security problems, mostly stemming from drug violence and drug corruption. In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar alerts about Mexico.

Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who "are in denial about what is happening in Mexico."

Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon instructed his embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico.

The U.S. military report, which also analyzed economic situations in other countries, also noted that China has increased its influence in places where oil fields are present.

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France offers Mexico police aid
French President Nicolas Sarkozy has pledged to help Mexico in its battle against organised crime during an official visit to the country.

Mr Sarkozy offered his Mexican counterpart Felipe Calderon help with police training and technology for gathering intelligence.
The two leaders also unveiled plans to build a $550m (£397m) Franco-European helicopter factory in Mexico.

Mexico is currently engaged in a battle with feuding drugs cartels.

The gangs are fighting a vicious turf war in the north of the country over lucrative smuggling routes into the US.

Mexico deployed thousands of troops this week to Ciudad Juarez, near the US border, to try to wrest control of the city from the gangs.

Mr Sarkozy praised Mr Calderon's battle against the cartels.

Equipment offered

"I have told President Calderon that we are at his disposal," he said.

"We are ready to receive Mexican equipment in French police laboratories. We are willing to send equipment to Mexico.

"We would like to help Mexico resolve this problem which causes so much distress such as insecurity."


The French president was accompanied by his wife Carla Bruni as well as French business leaders on his one-day visit.

Among business deals unveiled during the visit was an investment by helicopter maker Eurocopter to build a $550m (£397m) assembly plant in Mexico.

Mr Calderon said that the investment would not only be a boost for Mexico's aeronautics industry "but it will also improve equipment conditions for our armed forces".

Mr Sarzoky said he aimed "to bring France and Mexico's economic, cultural, political and diplomatic relations to a level never reached before."

The two leaders also discussed the case of French citizen Florence Cassez who is serving a 60-year prison sentence in Mexico for her role in a kidnapping gang.

Mr Sarkozy said a team of legal experts from both countries would examine whether she could be repatriated to France.

The French president also addressed the Mexican Senate during his visit.

Analysts say the trip comes as Mexico is seeking to diversify its export destinations, with 80% of its exports currently going to the US.