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| The Economy; News and updates about the local economy | |
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| Topic Started: Jan 27 2005, 04:47 PM (24,103 Views) | |
| flipzi | Jan 27 2005, 04:47 PM Post #1 |
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http://www.mb.com.ph/BSNS2005012727282.html Export sector expected to grow 10% this year, to hit $42 billion The country’s exports are expected to reach $40 billion-$42 billion this year mainly due to surges in the shipment of manufactured items, electronic products, machinery and garments for a growth rate of at least 10 percent. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Rafael B. Buenaventura said this is a conservative estimate in fact, that the exporting community could aim higher. "The $40 billion is easy, we can do more. (We need) higher exports and we can do better," he said. Exports, like foreign direct investments, portfolio money and overseas Filipino workers’ remittances jack up the BSP-monitored gross international reserves. Trade Secretary Cesar V. Purisima, incoming finance chief on February 15, said the projection for 2005 exports is $40 billion. "It’s conservative and achievable," he said. Purisima said exports performance is at pace with global market growth and the improving geographical balance will enhance shipments this year. Philippine Export Confederation chair Sergio Ortiz Luis Jr. said the Philippine export sector is expected to at least match last year’s revenue growth this year, with electronics and garments continuing to be the star performers,. "All in all, I’m still hoping that the sector would post at least a 10% growth also this year," said Ortiz Luis. While electronics and garments will remain the country’s top export earners, Ortiz-Luis said their share in total exports "may slowly be easing," as other export goods make headway in new markets. Latest government data show that exports in the 11 months to November 2004 rose 9.9% on year to $36.3 billion, boosted by a 19.5% growth in November alone — the best performance in more than two years. For 2004, exports are expected to hit $38 billion while the government projection for the current year is a growth forecast of between 8 to 10 percent. The National Economic Development Authority said it would be an 8percent growth while the private sector is more optimistic at 10 percent. The government foresees a more business-friendly environment for exports in 2005. Bilateral trade agreements, favorable laws for business, increased investments in the export sector, and an improved export plan in the next five years would further strengthen the country’s international trading position. These agreements are designed to increase the country’s opportunity to ship more goods to export markets. Under the Philippine Export Development Plan 2005-2007 by the government and private sector, the plan aims to strategically align the country’s products to high impact markets and further diversify export products based on the competitive advantage of the country. The government will also pursue a rationalized approach to key markets that include the United States, Japan and China, among others. Economic Planning Secretary Romulo Neri had said then that while the export sector will achieve a targeted 10% growth in 2004, growth in 2005 may slow to 8% due to a possible weakening in the global economy. (LCC) ===================================================== If the economy improves further, then we may be able to give more for our AFP modernization program. 
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 " Sovereignty resides in the people and all government authority emanates from them! - Art. II Sec 1, Philippine Constitution " " People don't care what we know until they know we care. " getflipzi@yahoo.com | |
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| flipzi | Jan 28 2005, 04:05 PM Post #2 |
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Nice start! :thumb: So, is this a sign that we are going to have a much better economy this year? Check this; Stocks up 23.22 points, peso at 55.103:$1 The Phisix advanced 23.22 points on Friday as investors continued to buy shares on the back of strong economic fundamentals. The main index added 1.166 percent to close at 2,014.61. The commercial-industrial, oil, property and banks and financial services sectors advanced while the all-shares and mining subindicators retreated. Gainers outnumbered losers, 99 to 27, with 33 issues unchanged. Value turnover was at P1,839,681 billion. Jovis Vistan of AB Capital Securities said optimism is being driven by the peso's rally and improvements in the government's fiscal standing. MORE: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/FlashNewsStory....?FlashOID=23380 Peso strengthens to 55.03, Phisix up The peso continued its rally in early trading Friday, reaching 55.03 to 55.08 against the dollar. The currency closed at 55.15 per US dollar on Thursday, its strongest since January 2004. Volume was at $70 million as of posting time. Several analysts said they expect the peso to stabilize at the 54 to the dollar level at the end of the first quarter. At the stock market, the Phisix breached the 2,000 resistance level in early trading and was up 25 points at 2,016. MORE : http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/FlashNewsStory....?FlashOID=23374 Peso may breach P54:$1 if RP keeps fiscal reforms, avoids downgrade - analyst The peso may breach the 54 to the US dollar level if the Philippines avoids further credit downgrades and continues implementing much needed fiscal reforms, an analyst at BNP Paribas, Singapore told ANC Friday. Senior currency analyst Thio Chin Loo said that the factors driving the peso's rally at the start of the year are strong. "We've seen a fairly good showing of the fiscal deficit in 2004, when the fiscal deficit was better than the target," she said. "Despite the potential negative credit downgrade, we see capital inflows into the Philippines," she said, adding that some of the momentum building for the peso's gain is broadening. She, however, cautioned that the peso's breaching the 54 level in a short period may need more developments. "I think it will depend on more advances, particularly on the fiscal front and the avoidance of credit downgrade," she said. MORE: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/FlashNewsStory....?FlashOID=23378 |
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" Sovereignty resides in the people and all government authority emanates from them! - Art. II Sec 1, Philippine Constitution " " People don't care what we know until they know we care. " getflipzi@yahoo.com | |
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| maniegom | Feb 1 2005, 01:10 AM Post #3 |
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Just read this today. At last some more good news for our country. :thumb: http://www.manilatimes.net/national/2005/f...050201top1.html Tuesday, February 01, 2005 RP posts record GDP 6.1 percent growth highest in 15 years; President ‘delighted’ by result By Darwin G. Amojelar, Researcher FUELED by a strong services sector, the country’s economy grew 6.1 percent in 2004 from 4.7 percent in 2003, the highest in 15 years, the National Statistical Coordination Board reported on Monday. The growth exceeded government forecasts of 4.9 percent to 5.8 percent. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2004 was 1.4 percent higher than the figure in 2003. For the fourth quarter in 2004, the GDP grew 5.4 percent from 5 percent in the same period in 2003, but the fourth-quarter figure was lower by 0.9 percent from the 6.3 percent in the third quarter. In 1989 the country’s economy grew by 6.2 percent and 6.6 percent in 1988, partly because of higher consumption spending in the first half related to the May national elections. A statement by the board secretary-general, Romulo Virola, said the services sector was the best performer, growing 7.3 percent after 5.8 percent in 2003. In Malacañang President Arroyo said she was “delighted” with the growth figures. “This is our highest since 1996 and shows the resilience and capacity of our people to overcome crisis, work hard and keep on track to a better future,” she said. She thanked Congress for “putting our fiscal house in order” and the country’s farmers who managed to maintain high productivity despite the floods and typhoons late last year, which destroyed large areas in Northern Luzon. The President said industry and services are picking up owing to higher farm incomes and that overseas remittances are adding fuel to the country’s “growth engine.” Virola said the growth of the economy was bolstered by the strong performances of all three major sectors such as agriculture, fishery and forestry, which grew 4.9 percent, up from 3.8 percent in 2003, while industrial growth rose to 5.3 percent from 3.8 percent. “Services, which accounted for about 47 percent of total GDP, contributed the most to the growth with 3.37 percentage points,” Virola said. Industry accounted for about 33 percent of GDP and contributed 1.77 percentage points to the total growth rate. Manufacturing and construction led the strong performance of the industry. “All of its subsectors posted accelerated growths in 2004. Top contributors to growth were trade, transportation, communications and storage, and private services,” the statement said. Agriculture, fishery and forestry, which accounted for about 20 percent of total GDP, contributed 0.96 percentage point to total GDP growth. “With the moderate growth of 4.9 percent in net-factor income from abroad, coming mostly from an increase in compensation income of our overseas Filipino workers, the gross national product [GNP] grew by a similar 6.1 percent, from 5.6 percent in the previous year,” Virola said. Invigorated consumer spending Virola explained that reinvigorated consumer spending, partly boosted by the election-related activities in the first semester of the year, propped up the growth of personal consumption expenditure to 5.8 percent in 2004 from 5.3 percent in 2003. “Improved farm production and income, hiked remittances of the country’s OFWs and the sustained increase in the use of mobile-phone services also contributed to the robust growth of [personal consumption expenditure] during the year,” he added. In a telephone interview Benjamin Diokno, former budget secretary and an economist from the University of the Philippines, attributed the increase in GDP to higher consumer spending owing to the May 2004 election. Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Romulo L. Neri, on the other hand, believes government policy and program interventions contributed to the growth. Neri noted that agriculture, which rose 4.9 percent, has been favored by normal rainfall conditions except during the typhoons in the last two months, which hit palay, corn and vegetable production. Neri said the increase in consumer spending has been strong because of the growth in rural incomes as both real output and terms of trade improved. “Remittances have also continued to bolster spending. As of the first 11 months of the year, remittances grew 11 percent and reached $7.7 billion in 2004, contributing about a tenth of domestic economic production.” Growth quite good, says MBC Guillermo Luz, executive director of the Makati Business Club, said that the growth rate was quite good, considering that “2004 was perceived to be a bit of a difficult year.” “We had so many events,” which could have hurt the economy such as a series of destructive typhoons and uncertainty after President Arroyo’s victory in the May elections, which the opposition had charged was due to cheating. Luz said the growth in agriculture had been “the big surprise” of the year, and that this would greatly benefit the 30 percent of the work force that depends on that sector. Luz said, however, that growth was not likely to be as high in 2005, remarking that “the expectation is slightly more tempered for 2005 than for 2004.” “There is an expectation that inflation and interest rates will be higher due to the high price of imported fuel and the continuing budget deficits of the government which will force it to borrow more,” Luz explained. The sentiment “is still bullish but not as bullish as last year,” he said. Is the growth sustainable? Diokno sees the domestic economy growing by 4.5 percent owing to the return of El Niño, noting that the agriculture sector would experience flat or negative growth coupled with high taxes. Neri, however, cited governments programs that would sustain economic growth for this year. One of the drivers of economic growth this year, he said, is the higher spending in infrastructure investment. He cited major projects that would start in 2005 such as the Subic-Clark-Tarlac Toll Road, P27 billion; South Luzon Extension, P10 billion; Northrail, $503 million; and the Subic Port, P5 billion. He added that the Department of Energy is also speeding up the privatization of the National Power Corp. and Transco in 2005 from the initial target date of 2006. The Wholesale and Electricity Spot Market, which will create competition in the bulk purchase of electricity, is also planned to start in October 2005. Neri also noted that the government’s fiscal position, although still weak, is improving. “The 2004 government fiscal deficit ended at P186.1 billion, or at 3.8 percent, of GDP lower than the target of 4.2 percent. In 2005 the government is targeting a further reduction in the government’s fiscal deficit to P180 billion, or 3.6 percent, of GDP,” he explained. Neri stressed that the government is hell bent on dealing with the problem of corruption. “To control smuggling and technical evasion, the Bureau of Customs will install x-ray machines in the country’s five major ports—Manila, Cebu, Subic, Batangas and the Manila International Container Terminal. The Bureau of Internal Revenue is also strengthening its computer-assisted audit programs to reduce tax evasion on VAT and corporate income.” --With AFP |
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| flipzi | Feb 1 2005, 10:29 AM Post #4 |
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We really have the edge being Filipinos and because of the richness of our beloved motherland. We must have to vanquish the negative factors dampening our growth nonetheless. Rid our society of corruption and let's work together in plotting the right course for our nation. 
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" Sovereignty resides in the people and all government authority emanates from them! - Art. II Sec 1, Philippine Constitution " " People don't care what we know until they know we care. " getflipzi@yahoo.com | |
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| Bb. Makati | Feb 1 2005, 02:55 PM Post #5 |
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Hey Flipzi, does it mean that with this record GDP we can now finally implement the AFP Modernization Program realistically? |
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| flipzi | Feb 1 2005, 03:41 PM Post #6 |
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Not yet at this time. As i see it, if the country can sustain a 5% growth rate GDP in three consecutive years... ... and there'll be no budgetary deficit ... ... the modernization program can run "smoothly". Nonetheless, even without this condition, as long as there'll be no budget deficit, an annual P20 billion worth of modernization fund can be realized. If all the tax measures will take effect soon enough, we can even expect a delivery of defense items within the first half or the third quarter of this year. That's only based on how i am looking at it and not from a solid basis. Well,.. hopefully the lawmakers will support such effort. |
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" Sovereignty resides in the people and all government authority emanates from them! - Art. II Sec 1, Philippine Constitution " " People don't care what we know until they know we care. " getflipzi@yahoo.com | |
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| maniegom | Feb 2 2005, 04:13 AM Post #7 |
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Some more good news Folks! http://news.inq7.net/nation/index.php?index=1&story_id=26159 Peso breaks into 54 level US fund to keep on investing in country Posted 11:48pm (Mla time) Feb 01, 2005 By Doris Dumlao, Michelle Remo Inquirer News Service Editor's Note: Published on page A1 of the Feb. 2, 2005 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer THE PESO yesterday broke into the 54 level against the US dollar for the first time since October 2003 on a string of favorable news such as the 6.1-percent economic growth last year and the country's fresh chance to stay on the list of investment sites of the biggest US pension fund. The peso was the sole gainer in Asia as expectations the G7 will once again issue a dull, familiar message calling for global currency flexibility weighed on regional currencies. The peso surged to a 15-month high of 54.87 before closing at 55 against the greenback. It opened at 55.03 and hit an intra-day low of 55.04 before breaching the 55 barrier. "When the 55:$1 level was breached, it triggered further selling of dollars on expectation that it will appreciate some more," said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at Banco de Oro Universal Bank. The $454.5-million volume at the Philippine Dealing System yesterday was one of the highest seen in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian currency turmoil. Upon closing at 55 to the dollar, the local currency gained 9 centavos despite some technical correction. "The uptrend is still due to equity flows. The sentiment seems to be improving due to the recent tax measures being passed, the favorable economic data, gross international reserves and OFW (overseas Filipino workers) inflows," said Rovic de Guzman, chief foreign exchange dealer at Union Bank of the Philippines. "If you've noticed, most of the stories coming out over the last two weeks have been generally positive," he said. CalPERS staying Ravelas said the peso's rally was buoyed by the higher gross domestic product growth and the country's passing grade given by the consultant of California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS). CalPERS has an estimated $85 million worth of portfolio investment in the Philippines. It is the third-largest pension fund in the world, and has $172 billion worth of assets, part of which is invested in emerging markets. CalPERS decided to stay after its consultant kept the country yesterday on the list of permissible investment sites. Wilshire Consulting said the Philippines got passing marks in the seven basic criteria of a permissible investment site-market liquidity, political stability, transparency, productive labor practice, capital market openness, settlement proficiency and transaction cost. Beryl Ang, a member of the government's technical staff working on convincing CalPERS to keep its investments in the country, said officials of Wilshire would meet with CalPERS on Feb. 14, when the actual score of the Philippines would be presented. She said being on the list meant that the country got a score of at least 2 points. "This success can be attributed to many factors foremost of which is the resolve of the administration of President Macapagal-Arroyo to institute far-ranging reforms toward strengthening the country's economic and political foundations," Philippine Ambassador to the United States Albert del Rosario said in a statement. A Philippine delegation led by Del Rosario earlier talked with officials of CalPERS and Wilshire to convince them that the country still had a good investment climate despite a negative perception brought about by its ailing fiscal sector. Int'l accounting standards One of the factors that boosted the country's score was the adoption of international accounting standards, which improved its score in transparency, Ang said. Del Rosario said an effective inter-agency coordination was forged to address the concerns of Wilshire. "Strong efforts were made by the Securities and Exchange Commission, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Board of Accountancy and by the Professional Regulation Commission to adopt, before Dec. 31 the International Accounting Standards to increase the Philippine score in one of the factors used for the rating which is transparency," he said. He said Labor Secretary Patricia Sto. Tomas led a delegation to Amherst, Massachusetts, "to engage third-party source Verite on still another factor which is Productive Labor Practices." Credit downgrade "We also led a team to meet with Standard & Poor's to improve the Philippine score in market liquidity and volatility," Del Rosario said. Talks of a possible exclusion of the Philippines from the list of permissible investment sites arose after the country's credit rating was downgraded. International ratings firm Standard & Poor's last month downgraded by a notch the country's foreign currency debt rating to BB- from BB, citing the country's lingering fiscal problem. Fitch Ratings, for its part, downgraded its outlook for the Philippines from stable to negative last month, citing reasons related to the country's fiscal standing. Moody's Investors Service has yet to give its verdict on the Philippines next month, although there are fears it might follow the lead of S&P. Investments in agro, food Raul Hernandez, vice president of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said CalPERS expressed interest in increasing its investments in the Philippines by pouring in money into local government projects involving agriculture and food processing. Hernandez went to the United States as a member of a separate delegation that asked the pension fund to continue investing in the Philippines. He went with Bulacan Gov. Josefina Mendoza-de la Cruz, and together with the rest of the delegation, they urged CalPERS to invest in projects that would boost economic activities in towns and provinces. "Our image now will be in a better light because CalPERS is a big organization," Hernandez said. With reports from Inquirer wires |
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| maniegom | Feb 9 2005, 05:17 AM Post #8 |
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I obviously spoke too soon, but hope it's just a temporary setback. http://www.philstar.com/philstar/News200502090701.htm Peso tumbles back to 55 to $1 By Des Ferriols The Philippine Star 02/09/2005 The peso plunged back to the 55-to- the dollar level yesterday, weakening by 46 centavos in a single trading day, as exporters started buying up dollars while profit-takers took advantage of the local unit’s steady appreciation in the last few weeks. Malacañang, however, remained upbeat that the peso will recover and continue to strengthen against the dollar. Presidential Spokesman Ignacio Bunye said "the strengthening of the peso marks the return of confidence that is fully deserved by our diligent and hardworking people." At the Philippine Dealing System (PDS), the peso opened weak at 54.68 before hitting a high of 54.650 and a low of 55.030 to the dollar. It hovered around this level throughout the session, closing the trading day 46 centavos lower at 55.030 compared with Monday’s close of 54.570 to the dollar. Traders said the depreciation was not unexpected with the market ripe for profit-taking as residents converted some of their holdings into dollars. Volume was heavy at $476 million with the bulk coming in during the morning session. Mid-session volume amounted to $357 million and the afternoon trade volume amounted to $199 million. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said the strong dollar inflows from portfolio investors will boost the peso again, saying that investor interest was "not a spent force yet." Inflows from investors has been fueling the appreciation of the peso as portfolio investments in the last three weeks overtook last year’s total net portfolio investments . BSP Deputy Governor Amando Tetangco said the peso merely tracked regional currencies yesterday, combined with actual demand for dollars and even holiday sentiments. "The Chinese New Year may cause some illiquidity because some markets are closed so the dollar buying will happen in the few markets in the region that are open and trading," Tetangco said. The BSP earlier said it was only a matter of time before the peso rises above the 54 level to as high as 52-to- the dollar level if government is able to sustain its ongoing reforms and actually manages to lay down the foundations to reverse its budget crisis. The BSP’s official projected exchange rate is 55 to 57, but BSP Governor Rafael Buenaventura told reporters over the weekend that the exchange rate could strengthen to as high as $52 to the dollar by yearend. "If we are able to do everything we said we will do, why not?" Buenaventura said. "We have to lay down these fiscal, financial and capital market reforms." Buenaventura said it was critical for the government to proceed aggressively with the privatization of its power generation companies as well as to persuade the Energy Regulatory Commission to raise power rates by another 98 centavos in order to improve the balance sheet of the National Power Corp. "Being able to do all these things will create the ideal condition for more investment inflows, better access to better credit terms when the government borrows and the liberation of a bigger portion of the budget for development spending," he pointed out. Based on the historical relationship between the Philippine peso and the Thai baht, Buenaventura said the peso should be at around 52 to $1 considering that the Thai baht was already at 40 to the dollar. "At that exchange rate, we’d still be competitive," Buenaventura said. "Imagine the difference it would make if we didn’t need so much money to service our debts and if we had a capital market deep enough to supply the funding requirements of the corporate sector." According to Buenaventura, none of the tasks laid down by the Arroyo administration was impossible or even improbable. "The most irritating part about this whole thing is precisely the fact that all these things are doable," he said. |
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| maniegom | Feb 24 2005, 03:40 AM Post #9 |
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Glad we're getting back on track and the future seems to be getting brighter for us. http://www.philstar.com/philstar/NEWS_FLASH0223200568_17.htm Stocks make a comeback as peso recovers 02/23 1:10:29 PM The Philippine Stock market bounced back Wednesday due to bargain-hunting as the index closed higher, up by 50.51 points or 2.53 percent to 2,042.78. The All-Shares market also registered in the green, up by 10.59 points to 1,207.92. Likewise all the sectors moved upward with mining the biggest gainer with 149.67 points. Trade volume was pegged at 2.61 billion worth 1.36 billion pesos. Gainers whipped losers at 88 to 17 with 32 issues unchanged. In the foreign exchange market, the local currency strengthened at 54.603 pesos against the US dollar as of noon time. The peso closed at 54.680 pesos yesterday. |
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| maniegom | Feb 24 2005, 11:36 AM Post #10 |
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http://www.philstar.com/philstar/News200502240701.htm More Japanese investments, trade opportunities seen By Marianne V. Go The Philippine Star 02/24/2005 More Japanese investments and trade opportunities are expected to pour into the country following a recent visit from one of Japan’s biggest trade groups – the Kansai Economic Federation (Kankeiren), Trade and Industry Secretary Juan B. Santos said yesterday. According to Santos, the Kankeiren mission proved that Japanese businessmen are very interested to do business in the Philippines and that the country is a profitable site for economic ventures. "The recent mission is an endorsement to other foreign firms that are considering locating or expanding their business in the country," Santos said. Aside from acknowledging the advantages of the Philippines as an investment destination, the Kankeiren delegation also stressed the importance of the forthcoming realization of the Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA) which would greatly increase the incentive for Japanese investments and pave the way for more bilateral trade. The planned free trade accord would affect mainly industrial and agricultural products but would also include services as well as proposals to allow more Filipino nurses and caregivers to work in Japan to minister to its ageing population. Santos agreed that the JPEPA would help efforts to make the Philippines the ASEAN business partner of choice for Japan. The major elements of the JPEPA were already agreed upon in principle by President Arroyo and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi last Nov. 29, 2004. Looking forward to the signing of the JPEPA, the Kankeiren companies are placing their bets and getting a head start in exploring the business environment and opportunities here in the Philippines. The delegation met with President Arroyo in Malacañang and assured the chief executive of their continued support for the country. Kankeiren Chairman Masayuki Matsushita said that the rising cost of doing business in China and other ASEAN countries opens an opportunity for the Philippines to capture a bigger share of foreign direct investments (FDI) "The Japanese business sentiment remains very positive in the country and it further encourages the government to align and adjust policies to sustain the country’s position as the preferred business location and platform of operations for Japanese companies and other foreign ventures," Santos said. He pointed out that the country’s best comparative strength remains the world-class skills of Filipino workers. In 2004, Japanese businesses had invested some P25.377-billion in the country’s manufacturing and service industries which include information technology (IT), software development, electronics, chemical products, communications equipment, automotive parts, health care programs and others. "Japan is one of the country’s most important business partners and we will continuously support Japanese firms in their endeavors," Santos said. The government has adopted measures to make the country more attractive to foreign investments. These include promoting macroeconomic stability, providing better infrastructure and support facilities, and encouraging the growth of support businesses to provide locally sourced parts and supplies to investing companies, Santos said. The Kankeiren delegation also showed interest in the country’s mining industry and recommended that the Philippines should mount an investment promotion mission to Japan. The members of the mission are drawn from various Kansai-based businesses and organizations. Most of these corporations already operate in the country through their local subsidiaries such as Mitsubishi Corp., Matsushita, Marubeni, Sanyo and Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC). Japan is one of the country’s top sources of foreign direct investments and the largest export market. Japan accounts for for more than 20 percent of the country’s total shipments. In 2004, exports to Japan registered an uptrend of 38.1 percent at $7.963-billion. |
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