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The China Threat; military, political, economic, etc.
Topic Started: Sep 16 2004, 01:56 AM (13,549 Views)
roughneck
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What our Government can do about this?
What the US response to this?
Is this a Deterent force ng China para panakot sa Asean nieghbors?

There is in did an Unbalanced force in Southeast Asean region.
Wala ba tayong gagawin para ma balance or makahabol tayo sa modernization ng Navy..
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MSantor
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roughneck
May 3 2008, 02:58 PM
What our Government can do about this?
What the US response to this?
Is this a Deterent force ng China para panakot sa Asean nieghbors?

There is in did an Unbalanced force in Southeast Asean region.
Wala ba tayong gagawin para ma balance or makahabol tayo sa modernization ng Navy..

Roughneck,

Don't be so naive. Neither the RP nor the US government can do anything because China is developing this base within its own territory and is within its own territorial/sovereign rights to build up its own military.

Also, this is not really a shift in the regional power balance because the mainland Chinese government has been developing its fleet for a long time and has several SSM-equipped destroyers and frigates as well as submarines in its arsenal. Also, most of its neighbours who can be also potential adversaries in the region- which include Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Japan- have comparable surface and submarine fleets to counter the Chinese navy/PLAN fleet, except for the JIN and XIA class SSBNs which gives China the edge by giving the Chinese Navy a forward-deployable nuclear missile capability.

Also, the 3 or so Chinese Navy destroyers/DDGs and the single frigate/FFG that you see in the satellite recon picture above are only a small portion of the overall strength of the Chinese surface fleet. The fact that this discovery alarmed you so much is because you and the general Filipino public have been so unaware of this threat that has already been there for years but which your leaders chose not to let your public see as a key foreign policy issue because it would show their inaction and their ignorance of how to deal with it.

Still, while your government cannot just simply ask the PRC government to withdraw its ships or dismantle its bases in Hainan through more spineless diplomacy, and somehow hope that the US will again come to the RP's rescue :armyroleyes: (even if the US is also trying to counter PRC moves itself in the South China Sea with actions like the recent P3 flights over Hainan, one of which led to the recent 2001 collision incident with a Chinese fighter), but the RP should still take the initiative in buying MRFs BEFORE those Chinese naval and air forces based in Hainan start making more aggressive moves!!!!!!


:headbang:
"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford

"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill


"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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roughneck
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Mr MSantor,

We are talking about Nuclear Subs. Thailand, Japan, South Korea has no Nuclear Capabilities. How will you compare it to China?What more the Philippines? What's our Capabilities?

I can compare what was happen in europe during the cold war, where the US deploy Minuteman Missiles in europe to counter the Threat of the large Soviet Unoin ICBM.

I'm not saying that the US must do the same thing.

Tayo ang kawawa kc wala tayong capability both nuke and conventional warfares. D tulad ng Asean neighbors natin na may modernized na military.

Its really unfair to us.
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spraret
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dont you worry much roughneck, the Americans are very much aware of these Chinese nuke subs, one burp from any of them and its la la la seabottom courtesy of a US fast attack submarine :armywink:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1209942057...=googlenews_wsj

Quote:
 
OPINION


China's Naval Secrets
By RICHARD D. FISHER JR.
FROM TODAY'S WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA
May 5, 2008

Experts attempting to understand the strategic aims behind China's aggressive military expansion have generally focused on Taiwan. But a new naval base points at Beijing's significant and growing interest in projecting power into waters far from the Taiwan Strait. China, in fact, is equipping itself to assert its longstanding and expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea, and this plan could raise tensions well beyond the region.

The new base is near Sanya, a city on the southern tip of Hainan Island. It's an ideal place for a naval base, and a significant expansion compared to the nearby naval base in the port city of Yulin. Sanya features much larger piers for hosting a large fleet of surface warships, a new underground base for submarines and comfortable facilities that would attract technically proficient soldiers and sailors. Its location will allow China to exert greater dominance over disputed territories of the South China Sea; to place a much larger naval force closer to sea lanes crucial to Asia's commercial lifeblood; and to exercise influence over the critical Straits of Malacca.

While construction of this new base has only recently been visible via commercial satellite imagery, since 2002 military and security officials in three Asian governments have conveyed to this analyst details, and at times concerns, about China's construction of a major naval base at Sanya. It's not just a matter of the base's existence, but of what Beijing appears to intend to do with it. Officials in two of these governments have pointed to a unique feature of this base: a large new underground facility designed to house nuclear and non-nuclear submarines. In a conversation at an academic confernece in late 2004, a general in China's People's Liberation Army admitted that Beijing was building a new base on Hainan, but denied there was an underground facility.

New high-resolution satellite imagery, however, appears to belie the general's statement. Acquired by Jane's Information Group from satellites of the DigitalGlobe Corporation, this commercially available imagery shows cave openings around the Sanya base consistent with another known PLA underground submarine base in Jianggezhuang near the Bohai Gulf. Other openings on the opposite side may have facilitated excavation or could serve as weapon- or supply storage areas. The size of the underground submarine facility is unknown, although one Asian military source has suggested it will hold at least eight submarines. There is space in this area for a supported underground structure that could house more than 20 subs.

Sanya will prove crucial to China's strategic nuclear and power projection ambitions. The Bohai Gulf in the north of the country, the location for the base of the first PLA nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), is too shallow to support nuclear deterrent patrols. But with the opening of the Sanya base, China's new Type 094 SSBNs can soon find safer 5,000-meter-deep operating areas south of Hainan Island.

The Pentagon projects that the PLA will build five Type 094 SSBNs. Should the submarine-launched ballistic missiles on these submarines contain multiple warheads, as some Asian military sources suggest, the SSBN fleet based at Sanya could eventually house up to half of the PLA's total nuclear missile warheads.

As such, China is going to invest in the facilities and forces needed to defend these vital strategic assets. Sanya has piers necessary to base a far larger force of surface warships, a new large pier, and many new housing and headquarters buildings in this attractive resort area. Both to protect its SSBNs and to defend China's growing interest in securing sea lanes to critical resources in distant areas like Africa, the Persian Gulf and Australia, Sanya can be expected to host future Chinese aircraft carrier battle groups and naval amphibious projection groups. Some Chinese sources suggest that the PLA could eventually build four to six aircraft carriers.

This concentration of strategic naval forces at Sanya will likely heighten China's longstanding desire to consolidate its control over the South China Sea. In 1974, 1988 and 1995, China used military force to capture Vietnamese- and Philippine-controlled or claimed islands and reefs. Its most recent acquisition, Mischief Reef, located about 200 kilometers off the Philippine island of Palawan, now contains two large concrete structures. The PLA appears to have a constant ship presence in this reef, which is very close to one of Asia's key maritime superhighways.

Now Beijing also has the Sanya base at its disposal. And sure enough, in mid-November 2007, the PLA held major naval and air exercises south of Hainan near the disputed Paracel Islands, prompting protests from Vietnam. Either in conjunction with this exercise or soon after, the first Type 094 SSBN moved to Sanya, where it is today -- as caputured by DigitalGlobe satellite images. The implication is clear: Sanya will serve as a base from which to assert China's dominance in the crowded South China Sea.

China and the U.S. have already tangled around Hainan. On April 1, 2001, a U.S. Navy EP-3 electronic reconnaissance aircraft flying in international airspace near Hainan tangled with a PLA Navy jet fighter. The Chinese pilot died, but in the fight, forced the damaged U.S. aircraft to land on Hainan and endure a humiliating disassembly by PLA intelligence services. This is likely a foretaste of the sensitivity China will accord U.S. or other naval forces that seek to monitor China's nuclear naval operations -- aimed in large part at the U.S.
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MSantor
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spraret
May 5 2008, 05:45 PM
dont you worry much roughneck, the Americans are very much aware of these Chinese nuke subs, one burp from any of them and its la la la seabottom courtesy of a US fast attack submarine :armywink:


This is still not an excuse for the RP/PN not to improve its almost non-existent ASW capabilities.

That is why it is up to the RP to take the initiative to start modernizing on the air and naval front; you cannot be forever dependent on the US for help on external defense!!!!!
"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford

"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill


"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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gen1
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I guess it's agood a time as any to invite the 7th fleet back

:demon:
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Zero wing
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Ya man i agree it was one of our great mistakes dapat saan they just change some provisons on the treaty then kick the Americans out alam na man nila na almost 90% of the AFP is dependent on US backing on everything but i guess its too late now but still a posibility

dapat we should take advantage of our NON Nato ally status but i think the gov't is doing nothing on it i ask bakit na man they are not taking advantage na man!!
"No sacrifice is too great in the service of freedom."

“As long as we are not willing to provide an adequate, suitable and capable defense for this country, we will be oppressed, demeaned and dishonored. We will be the stepping mat of every country in this region,”(Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile)

“Just because we are a very weak country militarily, we should not be taken advantage of by more powerful countries" (Senate committee on national defense and security chairman Panfilo Lacson)
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israeli
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with China's growing might causing alarm to American officials come suggestions of increased military cooperation between the US and the Philippines up to a point that the Americans should lease fighter jets and warships to us Filipinos.

here's the article:


http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/na...ns120015775.php


China's new naval base triggers US concerns
Agence France-Presse | May 13, 2008


WASHINGTON: China's new underground nuclear submarine base close to vital sea lanes in Southeast Asia has raised US concerns, with experts calling for a shoring up of alliances in the region to check Beijing's growing military clout.

The base's existence on the southern tip of Hainan Island was confirmed for the first time by high resolution satellite images, according to Jane's Intelligence Review, a respected defence periodical, this month.

It could hold up to 20 submarines, including a new type of nuclear ballistic missile submarine, and future Chinese aircraft carrier battle groups, posing a challenge to longstanding US military dominance in Asia.

China should not pursue such "high-end military options," warned Admiral Timothy Keating, the top commander of US forces in Asia, in an interview with the Voice of America last week.

He underlined America's "firm intention" not to abandon its dominating military role in the Pacific and told Beijing it would face "sure defeat" if it took on the United States militarily.

Worried mostly about Taiwan's security, Washington has often questioned China's military expansion on the back of rapid economic growth.

But American military experts attending a forum on China's naval expansion in Washington Monday said the nuclear submarine base underscored Beijing's interest in projecting power beyond the Taiwan Strait.

"The most important thing about the Hainan development is that if you look at the map, there is really nowhere China could go except south," said Arthur Waldron, an expert at the University of Pennsylvania, referring to the South China Sea and critical sea lanes, including the Strait of Malacca straddling Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

"This Hainan facility is going to raise questions in the minds of all of the neighbours because this is a fixed facility and cannot be removed," Waldron said. "My own sense is that it is going to make ripples and waves."

He said Washington should "tighten" its alliances in Asia to check China's growing military might and develop "interoperability" capabilities among allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Singapore, as well as Indonesia and Malaysia.

James Lyons, an ex-commander of the US Pacific Fleet, said the United States needed to reestablish high-level military ties with the Philippines as part of efforts to enhance US deterrence in the wake of China's naval expansion.


He said "operational tactics" used against the former Soviet Union during the Cold War should be applied against China.

He suggested US leasing a squadron of F-16 fighter jets and navy vessels to the Philippines, where Washington once had naval and air bases, as part of the deterrence strategy.

"We don't need a permanent base but we need access," Lyons said, suggesting also that Japan play a more "meaningful" role in protecting critical sea lanes in the region.

"Again the Soviets, we raised that deterrence equation and we won the war without firing a shot basically ... there is no cheap way out and we have to improve our posture in the Western Pacific along with our allies," he said.

Richard Fisher, an expert of China military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, a US think tank, expected US confrontation with China as Beijing modernized its nuclear ballistic missile submarines, referred to in military jargon as SSBNs.

"Absent a higher military diplomatic relationship with the Chinese, I foresee a period of growing confrontation in the South China Sea," he said.

"If they are going to be maintaining SSBN patrols within guarded areas of the South China Sea, the US has no choice but to maintain contacts or to monitor these SSBNs so as to be able to take them out in the event they come to threaten the US -- just as we did against Soviet SSBNs during the Cold War," he said.

The Hainan facility, he said, was a timely replacement for Beijing's first nuclear ballistic missile submarine base at the Bohai Gulf north of the country, which he added was too shallow to support nuclear deterrent patrols.

The Chinese would not allow the American navy to enter the air space and waters around the Hainan base uncontested, Fisher said.

"There is a very strong likelihood that there would be incidents at sea and that ships and aircraft and their crew members could be lost," he said.
"To secure peace is to prepare for war." - Carl Von Clausewitz
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gen1
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leasing F16s (and maybe a couple of their old spruance class destroyers) will be an excellent idea !

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roughneck
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Are the US gonna use the Philippines as a deterrent?

Mas maganda nga kasi d n natin kaiangan gumasto ng malaking pera para sa AFP modernization US na mismo magbibigay ng mga gamit sa AFP para gamitin as deterrenr force sa china.
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