MSantor

Mar 20 2008, 02:56 PM

While the Chinese may have an interest in the Spratleys and the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, I do not think they have an interest in the Philippines proper- namely the bigger islands such as Luzon, etc.

They know that if they invade a bigger island such as Luzon and try to occupy it, both the AFP and the civilian Filipino population will make it very hard for the average PLA soldier to make a living, even if the Chinese capture every city and town on the islands. This is because they are probably aware of the history of Japanese failure to stop the Filipino World War II guerrila movement, which had the very strong support of every local community who would not only supply and spy for the guerrilas, but get rid of any local collaborators who betrayed them to the Japanese.

Furthermore, as experts themselves in guerrila warfare or "People's War", as Mao Zedong describes it in his "red book", with their own experience of fighting the Japanese, the PLA knows better than to occupy another country where the people will not support the occupying power. The only exception to this is Tibet, which the PLA has held with an iron fist in spite of at least 3 rebellions by local Tibetans since 1949.

Also, I do not see the PRC trying to expand beyond China's traditional sphere of influence, which includes Tibet and Taiwan, anytime soon. They would probably also claim the South China Sea not only because of its name, but because it was the route of the Ming Dynasty-era treasure and trading fleets to both the rest of Southeast Asia and the Ming outpost at Singapore, which led to trade with India and beyond. After the PRC has possibly secured Taiwan in the future, they may even claim Singapore next because of its large Chinese community.

China also acts more in its own interests than for the cause of communism, since they invaded Vietnam in 1979 in a costly invasion from which they later withdrew, and temporarily cut a gas pipeline to North Korea not long after Kim Jong Il's more recent missile launches, IIRC, to show who had him on a leash. So obviously the Chinese do not care about other Communist countries, which is why I argue that there is no longer any more NPA-Beijing connection because the PRC officials will not waste their resources on these rebels who are nothing more than just barely-clothed rebels.

In fact, the CCP has recently been inducting entrepreneurs from China's noveau rich into its ranks; the party is thus not communist in practice, but only in name. They are more of a party that tries to secure llegitimacy through inspiring nationalism not only within Chinese mainlanders, but also within all the millions of overseas Chinese (of the Han ethnic majority/ºº×å who comprise over 95% of the population in China) in Taiwan, Singapore and scattered all throughout the world.

Thus I do not see them expanding to conquer the RP or other Southeast Asian countries in the near future, because they are so occupied with maintaining political and economic stability in order to ensure continued prosperity. Beyond the years 2040 to 2050 may be a different story though, since the PRC population will not only be larger, but may even outgrow the limited natural resources and habitable living space within China, especially if these are negatively affected by global environmental and climate change to the point that the Chinese may be forced into a war of conquest for other countries' natural resources and territory.

Marschall

Mar 21 2008, 05:03 AM

What did Tibet have to offer to China actually?

MSantor

Mar 21 2008, 05:50 AM

The Himalayas mountain range which occupies most of Tibet is also the freshwater source for the mighty Yangtze River (also called the "Chang Jiang" in Mandarin), which flows through the Chinese heartland and also provides not only freshwater to around 300 million Chinese living along its banks, but its water built up at the reservoir behind the massive "Three Gorges" Dam further downriver, in another province, also provides power to just as much people, if not more.

Tibet's mountains also provide China with a natural land barrier from an invasion from a regional rival like India.