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Multilateralism and the SCS/WPS- Incentives
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Topic Started: Feb 1 2016, 11:39 PM (638 Views)
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MSantor
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Feb 1 2016, 11:39 PM
Post #1
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I don't hold my breath that such a solution using only diplomatic means can be found, especially considering China's exceptionally aggressive stance:
Diplomat
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Incentivizing Multilateralism in the South China Sea
How might claimants encourage a multilateral approach to the troubled waters? By Kailash K Prasad January 31, 2016
Considering the multiple overlapping claims in the South China Sea, bilateral talks alone cannot yield a lasting solution. However, engaging in more inclusive dialogue will prove difficult for as long China – whose claims in these waters bring it into conflict with all the other claimants – remains averse to multilateral talks.
Part of the aversion likely stems from Beijing’s growing confidence in the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s strength relative to its maritime neighbors. With this perceived advantage, rather than multilateral talks – which could give China worse odds of getting all of what it claims in the region – Beijing seems confident that maintaining a preference for bilateral talks, while engaging in incremental island reclamation, more frequent patrols, as well as something occasionally more dramatic, will prove the more effective strategy, eventually forcing the other claimants to reconsider what they are willing to stake to realize their interests in the SCS.
However, with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and even non-claimant states like Indonesia and Singapore fast upgrading their navies, while building closer ties with each other – as well as with the United States, Australia and India further away, China is likely to find its military advantage in these waters less clear cut. And rather than spooking the other claimants into conforming to its wishes, Beijing’s assertiveness in the SCS will more frequently provoke responses in kind.
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"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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MSantor
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Jul 22 2016, 01:32 AM
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Interaksyon
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Without a united position on the West PH Sea ruling, how can ASEAN be relevant? By: Tricia Aquino, InterAksyon.com July 20, 2016 6:42 PM
MANILA, Philippines - The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) still has a long way to go in making its response to the territorial disputes over the South China Sea relevant, after it was unable to release a joint statement following the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague favoring the Philippine claims over the West Philippine Sea.
This was the belief of the experts who spoke at a forum organized by Stratbase-Albert Del Rosario Institute and Asia Society Philippines on Tuesday at the Asian Institute of Management in Makati City.
As A. Ibrahim Almuttaqi, head of the ASEAN Studies Program at The Habibie Center in Indonesia, pointed out that the ASEAN had already drafted a joint statement on the rulin
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"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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Hong Nam
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Jul 22 2016, 04:04 PM
Post #3
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Bought by China
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- MSantor
- Jul 22 2016, 01:32 AM
Without a united position on the West PH Sea ruling, how can ASEAN be relevant? By: Tricia Aquino, InterAksyon.com July 20, 2016 6:42 PM
MANILA, Philippines - The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) still has a long way to go in making its response to the territorial disputes over the South China Sea relevant, after it was unable to release a joint statement following the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague favoring the Philippine claims over the West Philippine Sea.
Hate to "rain on ASEAN's parade"...
Some members are pretty much Chinese "vassal states" and some where obviously absent when cojones where handed out by God. As long as this continues, ASEAN will just have to remain irrelevant.
I could even say the ASEAN has got the African Union beaten by a whole furlong.
Edited by Hong Nam, Jul 22 2016, 04:04 PM.
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