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India's big export decline
Topic Started: Nov 7 2015, 01:52 AM (128 Views)
MSantor
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Diplomat

Quote:
 
What’s Behind India’s Big Export Decline?

A long period of falling exports defies an easy explanation.

By Ritesh Kumar Singh
November 06, 2015

Starting from Dec 2014, the last ten months have seen a series of contractions in India’s merchandise shipments, the last nine months by double-digit percentage points. Most analysts offer three explanations for the drops: the adverse effect of fall in crude prices; the relative appreciation of rupee against dollar vis-à-vis other currencies like the euro, real, rouble, or yuan; and slower growth in world trade.

Doubtless, the fall in crude prices has affected the dollar earnings from exports of refined petroleum products like diesel and petrol. Slower growth in world trade is an irrefutable reality that is bound to affect India’s exports.

However, India’s merchandise exports have been hovering around $300 billion for more than four years now, and that can’t fully be explained by low crude prices or slowing global trade, given India’s modest share of 1.7 percent of world exports.

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