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Vietnam power watch (updates)
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Topic Started: Oct 3 2015, 12:37 AM (262 Views)
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MSantor
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Oct 3 2015, 12:37 AM
Post #1
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Diplomat
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Vietnam Is Changing... And So Is the Balance of Power in Asia All signs point to intense internal debate on leadership and foreign policy.
carl-thayer By Carl Thayer October 02, 2015
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Media reports suggest there are two main contenders for the post of party Secretary General – Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and his long-term rival President Truong Tan Sang. Both are southerners. The post of party leader has traditionally gone to a northerner.
If the party Central Committee cannot reach consensus there are two likely possibilities. The first possibility is that both candidates will stand down and retire from politics and the next party leader will be chosen from among the members of the current Politburo who are eligible for election at the congress.
The second possibility could see the incumbent party leader, Nguyen Phu Trong, reappointed on the understanding that he would make way for another leader before his five-year term in office expired. This solution would mirror the decision by the eighth party congress in 1996 to re-appoint Do Muoi as party Secretary General on the understanding he would step down before mid-term. Do Muoi was replaced by Le Kha Phieu in late 1997.
When Vietnam enters its political season in advance of a national party congress current events are subject to intense scrutiny by political observers to discern which way the winds are blowing. This year is no exception.
For example, when the Chinese Embassy in Hanoi held a reception to celebrate its National Day (held early on September 29) Vietnam was represented by its Minister for Planning and Investment, Bui Quang Vinh. Vinh is not a member of the Politburo and is expected to retire after the twelfth party congress. There was intense speculation in Hanoi why such a comparatively “low level” official represented the Vietnamese government.
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Edited by MSantor, Oct 3 2015, 12:45 AM.
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"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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MSantor
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Nov 15 2015, 11:54 PM
Post #2
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In the same way that China's communist party has princelings, such as controversial sacked Chongqing party secretary Bo Xilai who are the offspring of past leaders, Vietnam has its own generation of princelings.
Diplomat
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How Will Vietnam's New Communist Princelings Shape the Country's Future?
The ability of these rising stars to deliver will determine the durability of the regime. By Hai Hong Nguyen November 13, 2015
The Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) is preparing a new slate of leaders to replace the old guard who are retiring at the 12th National Congress in 2016. Public attention has been drawn to the rise of young ‘princelings’ — the children of current or former leaders in communist authoritarian regimes like Vietnam and China — to local executive positions and bodies.
The ability of these princelings to deliver on a broad range of governance issues, beyond just high levels of economic growth, will determine the durability of the current regime.
The most prominent among the rising princelings is Nguyễn Thanh Nghị, the eldest son of the current Prime Minister Nguyễn Tấn Dũng. Nghị has been elected as the party chief of his family’s home province Kiên Giang. Online rumours have it that Prime Minister Dũng, a reformist and the most powerful politician in the current Vietnamese regime, is likely to become the VCP chief in 2016. Another notable princeling is Nguyễn Xuân Anh, son of former Politburo member and chief of the VCP disciplines commission Nguyễn Văn Chi, who has been elected as the party chief of Đà Nẵng — the fastest growing coastal city in central Vietnam.
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Edited by MSantor, Nov 15 2015, 11:55 PM.
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"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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MSantor
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Dec 10 2015, 01:59 AM
Post #3
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Diplomat
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Why Vietnam's Foreign Policy Won't Change After Its Party Congress
Exploring myths and misconceptions regarding Vietnam’s approach to China and the United States. carl-thayer By Carl Thayer December 08, 2015
The Central Committee of the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) is poised to hold its thirteenth plenary session this month. According to informed insiders, this will be crunch time for selecting candidates for Vietnam’s top leadership posts – party secretary general, state president, prime minister, and chair of the National Assembly.
Once the plenum concludes, preparations for the twelfth national party congress, reportedly scheduled for January 7-9, will go into high gear. There are an unprecedented number of individuals vying for these top posts. Although there is uncertainty as to who will be the next party leader, political insiders predict there will be no major changes in Vietnam’s foreign policy and relations with the major powers.
Two recent reports offer contrasting views of Vietnam’s relations with China and the United States in the coming years. The first report, written by Joshua Kurlantzick for the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, is entitled “A China-Vietnam Military Clash.” This report was summarized in The Diplomat.
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"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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MSantor
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Jan 24 2016, 01:42 AM
Post #4
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Diplomat
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Vietnam’s Leadership Succession Struggle
A pressure-packed political succession has entered its final stages. By Jonathan D. London January 14, 2016
In Hanoi this week a pressure-packed political succession entered its final stages. But its outcomes remain undetermined. Instead, an intense struggle for power is underway within the country’s divided political elite, with leadership over the Communist Party hanging in the balance. With its expanding economy compromised by institutional weaknesses, its populous clamoring for more transparent and democratic governance, and its foreign relations confronted with escalating regional tensions, the implications of Vietnam’s leadership succession are not to be underestimated and extend well beyond Vietnam.
At the core of tensions is determination of the Party’s leadership for the 12th Party Congress, which will sit until 2021 and which is scheduled to get underway on the 21st of this month. Following tradition, the determination for the new leadership centers on the preparation of a leadership roster, which was to be finalized this week and voted upon next week, and which will ultimately determine who will occupy the positions of party general secretary, prime minister, state president, and national assembly president, among other key positions. The first two positions are the most powerful in Vietnam’s political hierarchy. Yet unlike China and, indeed, unlike most countries, Vietnam lacks a supreme leader and even a commander in chief.
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"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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MSantor
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Jan 28 2016, 12:07 AM
Post #5
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Premier Dung on his way out:
Diplomat
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Vietnam’s Party Chief Nguyen Phu Trong Keeps His Post
After rumors of an intense leadership struggle, Vietnam’s top leader will retain his post. shannon-tiezzi By Shannon Tiezzi January 28, 2016
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss – Vietnam’s new leader will in fact be its current leader, Nguyen Phu Trong, who has won a second term as general secretary of Vietnam’s Communist Party, local media reports. The state-run Vietnam News Agency released a photo of Trong receiving a bouquet from other members of the party’s Central Committee, with the caption saying he was being congratulated on his re-election.
Trong’s leadership position, and the make-up of the rest of the Politbuto, will be officially approved by Vietnam’s 12th National Party Congress tomorrow. As for the other leadership positions up for grabs, Thanh Nien News reports that the current Minister of Security Tran Dai Quang will take over as president and Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc will be prime minister (though those posts won’t be confirmed until the early summer, when the National Assembly meets). That conforms to early reporting based on deliberations by the Central Committee in early January.
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"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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