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Why China won't be Asia's dominant power (article)
Topic Started: Nov 20 2014, 02:20 AM (668 Views)
MSantor
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One view that is skeptical of China's rise in this century, though probably not as pessimistic as Gordon Chang in his book The Coming Collapse of China.

Several factors, such as the income/poverty gap between the rich western, coastal/industrialized regions and the poor rural heartlands, as well as the endemic government corruption that plagues government agencies, despite Pres. Xi's anti-corruption drives, would impede China's progress to becoming a true regional power.

CNBC

Quote:
 
Why China won't be Asia's dominant power
By Nyshka Chandran | CNBC – 12 hours ago

The argument that China is already Asia's pre-eminent power based on its growing economic and military capacities is weak, the authors say. They expect the limitations of China's economic might, a lack of close bilateral relationships and weak military capability to keep the country from becoming an advanced political-economy that wields influence in the region anytime soon.

"China is a dominant power, but it's not the dominant power in the region or the world. It's got the economic hardware in place... as a collective country, there's no denying that it's an economic and military power," said Vishnu Varathan, senior economist at Mizuho Bank.

An unproductive economy

China's gross domestic product growth rate of 7 percent may be a five-year low, but it's still the envy of most countries. However, experts say declining productivity is one of biggest tell-tale signs that China cannot maintain its current pace of growth.

(...SNIPPED)

Exaggerated military power

The defense sector receives the lion's share of government finances, nearly 15 percent of the 2014 budget, but Dibb and Lee believe China will not become a military superpower until it's capable of taking decisive action on a global scale.

"Although China has developed potent military capabilities to make it hazardous for U.S. forces to operate in the approaches to China, the fact remains that Beijing could not enforce a full military blockade of Taiwan or attempt a full-scale amphibious invasion of that island," they wrote.

(...SNIPPED)

Edited by MSantor, Nov 20 2014, 02:27 AM.
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pachador


The bully is relying on an army of paid propagandists and reporters to exaggerate their capabilities economically and militarily, not only that, it is common practice of local officials in bullyland to exaggerate their economic statistics so that when the national stats are crunched in the nation's capital, the sum total is a an exaggerated figure. even if we disregard the exaggerated statistics, and even if the bully's economy will overtake the united states, their economy will have to be at least many times bigger than the american economy before the bully can declare they are truly rich because a more realistic measure of prosperity is per capita income which for bully citizens is much, much lower than the americans because her population is much much bigger, an analogy is singapore versus philippines, the philippine economy is bigger than singapore but we are still much poorer than singapore because on a per capita income basis, we are much lower than singapore's per capita income.......and not only that, there are serious problems going on in bullyland:
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/science/131211/waterless-world-inner-mongolia-desert-wasteland

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-11-19/chinas-water-supply-is-contaminated-and-shrinking

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21587813-northern-china-running-out-water-governments-remedies-are-potentially-disastrous-all

http://all-that-is-interesting.com/pollution-in-china-photographs

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-11-18/chinas-aging-migrant-workers

compare now to the americans who prefer to speak softly while carrying a big stick. Here's one example of why america's economy will be stable for decades to come:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html
Edited by pachador, Nov 20 2014, 02:23 PM.
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