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Philippines-China WPS Dispute
Topic Started: Jul 15 2012, 02:28 PM (105,145 Views)
Real Macoy
Trainee
[ *  * ]
Imo, We all know up to what extent our PN and PCG's capabilities are at present and comparing it to China's PLAN and CMH capabilities and their strategies, coupled with their dummy fishing boat trawlers, we have a very slim chance of winning a standoff against them. Considering Recto Bank is only around 80 miles away from Palawan, the only best possible and effective way is for PH Military to plan and establish an "Anti-access denial" around Recto Bank area, by acquiring 3 couples of mobile land based Anti ship missile batteries protected with Anti Air Defense Missiles, 2 couples deployed in Palawan area facing Recto Bank and the other 2 down Southern part of Palawan, to anticipate PLA reinforcements coming from PLAN Mischief Reef area.

This plan and strategic move should be enough to send a message and a period, that we mean what we say to defend these areas at all cost, no matter what and it highlights our RED LINE.

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Real Macoy
Trainee
[ *  * ]
^ follow up, let's also consider bad weather conditions with regards to (during) standoffs, against the PLAN, they have unlimited resources, more capable armed ships at their disposal compared to the Philippines, that can withstand these conditions. So this is also a big minus on our part.
The best strategy for the Philippines is to utilize it's proximity in order to execute an effective defense.
"While It may not be that hard to sink or attack our ships in WPS, it would be a different story if they attack our Military land based defences that protects & defends our EEZ Territories."
Edited by Real Macoy, Jan 3 2015, 06:20 PM.
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pachador


actually, there is no need for the philippines to play the game of standoffs and rammings and use of coast guard/civilian vessels for prolonged standoffs as this will only play into the unlimited resources of the bully because recto bank is only 80 miles from palawan and well within the 200 mile EEZ per UN law of the sea. I believe the philippines is just asking for a specific ruling from ITLOS with regard to exact delineation of maritime lines simply because the bully has this weird insistence it owns the whole seas. Once ITLOS has issued the ruling, the philippines can physically board the illegal vessel and if it resists, fire at it - this is allowed by international law. this is the only game we should play, and this is why the bully is scared for us to bring this dispute to ITLOS because once ITLOS issues the ruling , it will give our physical enforcement actions indisputable international legal teeth or backing. if they resist and fire back claiming self-defense, it will be unacceptable legally because they are illegally in our waters in the first place, hence ,the reason for our physical enforcement and hence they cannot claim self defense.
Lastly, we cannot worry about the bully striking back or retaliating, As long as our physical enforcement actions are within the legal protection afforded both the the UN law of the sea and the upcoming ITLOS ruling, then we must do what is right and not let intimidation by the bully guide our actions - in other words, it does not matter anymore if we are much weaker- just do it.

Edited by pachador, Jan 4 2015, 01:58 AM.
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MSantor
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PDFF Mod Group
China's "Maginot Line" ...

Quote:
 

Maginot Line in the South China Sea

The Maginot Line was a line of concrete fortifications, obstacles, and weapons installations that France constructed just before the border with Switzerland and the borders with Germany and Luxembourg during the 1930s.

A mature network of military facilities in the Spratlys, including an expanded Fiery Cross presence, would effectively extend China’s ability to project power by over 800 kilometers (500 miles), particularly through Chinese Coast Guard patrols in contested areas and potentially even air operations. Similar to its relative economic supremacy, China’s relative advantages in military size, modernization, and professionalism suggest that it is the only South China Sea claimant that is potentially capable of establishing de facto air and sea denial over tiny islet networks in a maritime setting as vast as the Spratly archipelago.

China’s German-built Tianjing Hao dredger is the largest of its type in Asia and China’s primary weapon in island-building, cost approximately $130 million to build. China may invest over $5 billion over ten years on reclamation in Johnson South Reef; the Philippines’ 2014 military budget is less than $2 billion.

China is the only claimant whose economic prowess can support projects that, without violence, significantly alter the status quo there.

(...SNIPPED)


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Source: The Next Big Future

"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford

"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill


"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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Hong Nam
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Bought by China

And what did the Germans do to render the Maginot Line useless?

They bypassed it and came from behind. Those Islands are even more exposed and vulnerable from literally all dimensions.
Edited by Hong Nam, Jan 6 2015, 11:53 PM.

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pachador


Hong Nam
Jan 6 2015, 11:40 PM
And what did the Germans do to render the Maginot Line useless?

They bypassed it and came from behind. Those Islands are even more exposed and vulnerable from literally all dimensions.
that right, a retired officer told me that one reason, the philippines did not spend money on fortifications is because they are only effective against limited raids, but against modern air or naval airstrikes those island fortifications are very vulnerable. thats why the AFP is focusing its resources on mobility assets for flexible and 360 degree attacks, e.g. mpacs, rhibs, patrol boats, choppers, etc he expounded further and said that, the same can be said of the big philippine islands of luzon, mindanao and visayan islands ,they are all vulnerable to modern air and naval strikes, and beyond the horizon/vertical envelopment attacks, that is why static fortifications wil just be a replay of battle of bataan and corregidor. the key to minimizinfg losses is mobile warfare, that includes overlapping doctrines such as assymetric or guerilla warfare where the invader does not know where to concentrate their attacks since the defender has no static fortifications. in the case of the bigger islands like mindanao and luzon, the mobile defender has a lot of room to maneuver , hide, attack , retreat and so on whereas in the case of tiny islands such as in the west philippine sea, there is no place to maneuver and they are sitting ducks.
Currently, we hear active AFP officers mention "Territorial defense" often. do they mean obsolete static defenses against invaders or do they actually mean mobile warfare which encompasses not only guerilla/assymetric but also large-scale conventional warfare. The answer seems obvious, but its good to ask aloud anyway :)
Edited by pachador, Jan 7 2015, 05:52 AM.
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MSantor
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Inquirer

Quote:
 
China’s reclamation in West PH Sea 50 % done, says AFP chief


(...FULL ARTICLE AT LINK ABOVE)


"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford

"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill


"If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton
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Hong Nam
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Bought by China

Quote:
 

How Close Is China to Another South China Sea Airstrip?
Beijing could have a second airstrip in the South China Sea by the end of 2015.

By Prashanth Parameswaran
January 10, 2015



- It is important that we view such Chinese activities in the South China Sea not as isolated events, but rather as part of a broader strategy of "incremental assertiveness" to change the facts on the water in Beijing's favor where possible to advance its claims.

- By having an airstrip in the Spratlys, Beijing's aircraft can reach the far southern parts of the South China Sea easily, quickly and frequently when they otherwise might not have been able to due to range or refueling issues. That in turn would enable China to carry out more air patrols over its claimed territory and provide greater cover for its ships around the area.

- Many have been wondering when exactly Beijing will declare an equivalent ADIZ in the South China Sea. But with its "incremental assertiveness" slowly increasing its military capabilities in the South China Sea, Beijing may gradually be working toward a reality where it may already have the capabilities to enforce an ADIZ, even if it does not actually declare one.


The Diplomat


I've heard of the new phrase "credible deterrence" rather that "minimum credible defence"... This is what it should have been all along.

A Chinese professor (Dingding Chen) who regularly contributes to The Diplomat, opined is his most recent article entitled 4 Headaches for Chinese Diplomacy in 2015 that:


Quote:
 

"The first challenge will be the tensions over the South China Sea, which still remain strong. In particular, the arbitration case between the Philippines and China will receive lots of attention from the international community. The U.S. stepped in by releasing its own opinion paper, which challenged China's nine-dash line claim. Also, Vietnam has reportedly submitted a request to the tribunal, thus complicating the situation even further. China's worry, then, is that Vietnam and the Philippines will join forces in challenging China's maritime rights, with the tacit support of the U.S. and even Japan. One piece of good news, however, might be that declining oil prices would make oil exploration in the South China Sea less profitable and thus reduce the likelihood of conflict between concerned countries in the short term."



I feel that he is a tad bit too optimistic about this - short term or not. Oil prices may have plunged and may have made oil exploration less profitable.


Why?

1) Because the oil market is unpredictable as it is volatile. Oil companies not wait for the oil prices to go up before they start exploring. A lot of long term planning is involved. From exploration to drilling, from drilling to production. Because of their long lead times, once canceled or postponed, deep-water projects cannot be brought on line at short notice in response to rising prices, they have to be ready when the prices start to go up.

2) Also, it may be less profitable now... But a profit is still a profit.


So don't get carried away by this assumption. Your armed forces modernisation should go on. "Eternal vigilance is the price of democracy."



Edited by Hong Nam, Jan 12 2015, 04:10 AM.

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pachador


related to this issue ?? wont be surprised . mabuhay ang santo Papa !!!
The Pope gave us the vatican's old maps of the world , i wonder if the philippines is in it ??, from the 15th century !!! :
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/01/17/15/look-what-pope-francis-gave-pnoy
Edited by pachador, Jan 17 2015, 01:36 PM.
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Hong Nam
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Bought by China


Imagery shows progress of Chinese land building across Spratlys

Sean O'Connor, Indianapolis and James Hardy, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
15 February 2015

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Airbus Defence and Space satellite imagery from 30 March and 7 August 2014 and 30 January 2015 shows the extent of Chinese progress in building an island at Gaven Reefs in the Spratly Islands.
By 30 January a pre-existing platform had been joined to the new island and at least one helipad built. Credit: CNES 2014/Distribution Airbus DS/IHS



Key Points

* Satellite imagery shows the construction by China of a new facility on Hughes Reef in the Spratly Islands
* The site, which has expanded from a 380 sq m platform to an island 75,000 sq m large, is another example of Chinese land reclamation in the Union Banks



Satellite imagery analysed by IHS Jane's has for the first time identified Chinese land reclamation activity and installation construction at Hughes Reef in the Spratly Islands.

The imagery, provided by Airbus Defence and Space and taken in January, also shows the progress of construction at Johnson South Reef, which like Hughes Reef is in the Union Banks, and Gaven Reefs in the Tizard Banks.

IHS Jane's previously used AIS transponder signals to monitor the movements of the Chinese dredger Tian Jing Hao through the Union Banks and Tizard Banks regions in late 2013 and early 2014. It was present at Hughes Reef between 20 March and 3 April 2014.

Construction at Gaven Reefs began some time after 30 March 2014, with imagery dated 7 August showing the construction of an artificial island. Imagery dated 30 January 2015 shows a causeway has linked the island to the original facility and the construction of a helipad.

The buildings on Hughes Reef and Gaven Reefs have almost identical footprints: that of a main square building with what appears to be an anti-aircraft tower or radome at each corner. This suggests that China has standardised the design of key facilities and is rolling it out across its new islands.


IHS Jane's 360




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