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Philippines-China WPS Dispute
Topic Started: Jul 15 2012, 02:28 PM (105,172 Views)
Hong Nam
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Bought by China

Marschall
Mar 15 2014, 10:58 AM
If push came to shove, China is able to flex its military muscle in the area and we would just be there to watch it. Investing in access-denial strategies should've been made a priority a long time ago, but now we have the ChiComs bossing us about in our own territory. It's time to wake up and be more far-sighted. (Though that should have happened a couple of decades ago already)
A sad fact of life. The consequences of the past now haunting the present.

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Andres Boning
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^ and still, the present PH Govt's actions since the WPS territorial issues started and particularly the very slow process of our AFP Modernization programs are considered PALE, Passive.
Yes it's moving, but in a "turtle's" pace, considering we're already "pushed", "pinned" into a corner many times over...
The Process shouldn't be that way and should be URGENT (even if it requires Presidential special powers) considering the THREATs and the big GAPS to fill.
I'm not implying for PH to blow it's top, but just to be prepared, to be ready for any eventuality. A MUCH STRONGER, BOLD and FIRM FOREIGN POLICY.

War of Words, Rhetorics are useless or pointless if you don't have anything to support them or make them believe that you are serious. This is the REAL "AMPAW!"

What ever will be the outcome of the Ukraine crisis or Russia's actions after this weekend will definitely be used by China as their template in WPS, for they both have that communist, nazi like mentality, together with their selfish beliefs undermining PEACE and the majority of what the rest of the World thinks.

just my 2 cents :salute:
Edited by Andres Boning, Mar 15 2014, 06:00 PM.
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Parastriker
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A sad fact of life that we must make room for in our strategy. I am still pushing for the fact that we would not be provoked onto open hostilities.

@Marschall

Even if we invest in are-denial capabilities to scare off the Chinese, they would just ignore it since they are confident in their own capabilities. The only option then left to us in that regard would be firing the first shot, making the situation look like an "Israel-threatens-Iran" albeit we certainly wouldn't had the capabilities of Israel.

Although AShMs are good options, they're not necessarily best options.


To all, I would like to voice out that the modernization process of our military is not moving at a snail's pace; it's being crammed into very tight schedule. The only notion as to why it looks like as if it's a snail-paced modernization is that, well, cramming ~18 year's worth of years lost cannot be realistically be crammed in 6 years, short of being a mirror-image of a Nazi-era Germany, that is. And Hitler needed 10 years, a racist attitude and not less than 3 invasions to make a stagnant and broken army to a well-armed (albeit disjointed) one.
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"Good leaders make efficient followers. Great leaders make good followers. But true leaders make leaders out of mere followers."

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Andres Boning
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@Bro Para,

Well, my comments are meant to imply giving priority on filling the GAPs first, like for the PAF's and PN's defense capabilities, before going through the normal process of the AFPM.

Imagine, it came to the point were we don't have any capability, coupled with the gap years, not taking the normal decommissioning process with replacements first or even considering upgrades or the proper one which is INTERIM Solutions..???
In case anything happens, we got something to use, NOT like our current situation, which is HELPLESS...

In PAF's case, the MRF's.. Interim solutions or brand new and the same with PN's case and or upgrading the armaments of all PN ship's with Missile Capabilities.

PH was offered with a no. of opportunities but were turned down by the Govt..

REMEMBER we are talking about PH Military capabilities to handle WPS Issues or possible solutions. (Different or separate from AFPM)

The ff interim solutions that could have foiled China's advancements in WPS or to make them think twice, that we can also hurt them back. Military Equipments that are readily available for delivery within 12-24 months during when they were offered to us by US, France, Spain and Italy.

US=F-16's (but we don't know the veracity of if they really offered it to us or we just made an excuse of turning it down, because the truth is we were actually turned down???)

France= Tried to offer us their Mirage F-1's, 2000's, their Floreal Class ships and many more..

Spain= used military equipment to the Armed Forces of the Philippines, watch ship vessels and air assets to be used to protect the country’s sovereignty and its boundaries.”

Italy= offered us medium lift aircraft, coast watch system radar, multi-role combat aircraft, and long-range patrol aircraft. NOT to mention the Italian Maestrale Class frigates and other classes, including packages that can be upgraded to suite our needs and (can be delivered within 12-24 months depending on suites included.)
AMX fighter- ground attack aircraft that can be used for Advance training, LIFT, interdiction, close air support and reconnaissance missions and Air and surface policing duties in WPS. (deliverable in 6-12 months during the time it was offered)

After the Scarborough shoal stand off, all of these options were on the table 2011-2012, options that if were taken before, could have given temporary or permanent solutions, could make a difference now or in the Future.

If we try to compare the Philippine's actions, preparations as to what Vietnam or other Nations that are also under threat by China's territory grabbing, illegal 9 dash line claims, as to what they have accomplished, purchases they made to improve their Military's Defense Capabilities against China, WE ARE SLOW and TOO LAID BACK...

The BEST thing that the Philippines done is the filling of ITLOS/ UNCLOS Arbitration protest.. BUT, it is also up to the Philippines to ENFORCE that law, our RIGHTS if we win, with our Allies behind our back and not the other way around.

Let's hope that the PH/ US Basing agreement can/will help us and give solutions to our WPS territorial problems or worse, push us back more deeper to stone age, Military Growth-wise for being too dependent. Hope NOT
Edited by Andres Boning, Mar 15 2014, 09:21 PM.
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Parastriker
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Andres Boning
Mar 15 2014, 08:28 PM
@Bro Para,

Well, my comments are meant to imply giving priority on filling the GAPs first, like for the PAF's and PN's defense capabilities, before going through the normal process of the AFPM.

Imagine, it came to the point were we don't have any capability, coupled with the gap years, not taking the normal decommissioning process with replacements first or even considering upgrades or the proper one which is INTERIM Solutions..???
In case anything happens, we got something to use, NOT like our current situation, which is HELPLESS...

In PAF's case, the MRF's.. Interim solutions or brand new and the same with PN's case and or upgrading the armaments of all PN ship's with Missile Capabilities.

PH was offered with a no. of opportunities but were turned down by the Govt..

REMEMBER we are talking about PH Military capabilities to handle WPS Issues or possible solutions. (Different or separate from AFPM)

The ff interim solutions that could have foiled China's advancements in WPS or to make them think twice, that we can also hurt them back. Military Equipments that are readily available for delivery within 12-24 months during when they were offered to us by US, France, Spain and Italy.

US=F-16's (but we don't know the veracity of if they really offered it to us or we just made an excuse of turning it down, because the truth is we were actually turned down???)

France= Tried to offer us their Mirage F-1's, 2000's, their Floreal Class ships and many more..

Spain= used military equipment to the Armed Forces of the Philippines, watch ship vessels and air assets to be used to protect the country’s sovereignty and its boundaries.”

Italy= offered us medium lift aircraft, coast watch system radar, multi-role combat aircraft, and long-range patrol aircraft. NOT to mention the Italian Maestrale Class frigates and other classes, including packages that can be upgraded to suite our needs and (can be delivered within 12-24 months depending on suites included.)
AMX fighter- ground attack aircraft that can be used for Advance training, LIFT, interdiction, close air support and reconnaissance missions and Air and surface policing duties in WPS. (deliverable in 6-12 months during the time it was offered)

After the Scarborough shoal stand off, all of these options were on the table 2011-2012, options that if were taken before, could have given temporary or permanent solutions, could make a difference now or in the Future.

If we try to compare the Philippine's actions, preparations as to what Vietnam or other Nations that are also under threat by China's territory grabbing, illegal 9 dash line claims, as to what they have accomplished, purchases they made to improve their Military's Defense Capabilities against China, WE ARE SLOW and TOO LAID BACK...

The BEST thing that the Philippines done is the filling of ITLOS/ UNCLOS Arbitration protest.. BUT, it is also up to the Philippines to ENFORCE that law, our RIGHTS if we win, with our Allies behind our back and not the other way around.

Let's hope that the PH/ US Basing agreement can/will help us and give solutions to our WPS territorial problems or worse, push us back more deeper to stone age, Military Growth-wise for being too dependent. Hope NOT
I will try to answer them one by one.

The F-16s might have been a good option, but seeing that they have higher maintenance prices, involves more training of airmen and associated personnel (which means higher training prices), the necessary security precautions the Americans would insist on and our lack of a Step-3 trainer, those F-16s would stand useless at our airfields, not being used by our airmen since they don't know how to.

France's offers are indeed very sweet and very attractive, but considering it has more or less the same problems as the U.S.' offer, and the fact that Mirage, a French company, is based in France, God knows how many miles away from our country, and the other fact that Mirages and other older French ships use French weaponry almost exclusively...

Italy's offers have the same problems as the two previous offers.

Also, please do note that Russia, Vietnam's main supplier of arms, allow weapons to be sold without any kind of restriction, while the U.S., our own main arms supplier, doesn't.

TL;DR: All offers are too useless in the long run. Accepting them would be a case of shortsightedness, like what President Ramos did, selling our steel mills to the Malaysians just to get "more money". And even if we rush getting those weapons that you have mentioned, do you think we might have scared off the Chinese from doing what they have been doing? It wouldn't certainly bode well for us to fight them, of course, seeing that whatever weapons we could have in 6 years, they have more. PLAY IT SMART.
Success through information, victory through disinformation.

"Good leaders make efficient followers. Great leaders make good followers. But true leaders make leaders out of mere followers."

"Measuring the intelligence of a common internet user is as easy as looking at his/her grammar."
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Marschall
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Quote:
 
Even if we invest in are-denial capabilities to scare off the Chinese, they would just ignore it since they are confident in their own capabilities. The only option then left to us in that regard would be firing the first shot, making the situation look like an "Israel-threatens-Iran" albeit we certainly wouldn't had the capabilities of Israel.

Although AShMs are good options, they're not necessarily best options.


Sir para, the reason why China can afford to ignore us right now is because we are lagging behind due to decades of inaction.
Anti-ship missiles and SAMs have to be purchased and installed in such a manner that Philippine territory facing the West Philippine Sea is adequately protected.
Does this mean, we have to shoot? No, it doesn't. It will mean that if the ChiCom enter out territory again, we can make sure that none of their actual military (as opposed to the white-painted vessels that we can match with our PCG) will enter either.
If one is to suggest that we should not prioritize access-denial, then we might as well hand everything over to the ChiCom straight away: the Chinese want the whole of the area: they are not even hiding that fact. So, to delay more, means to let things go further out of hand. With China's disputes with Japan and other SE-Asian nations, right now is the best time to install such platforms. And at this point in time, I do not believe that China would attack: for the very reason that other states in the region are closely following China's moves. But wait longer, and the situation might change further in China's favour.

Philippine foreign policy in this regard is similar to our the PAF: too much air, not enough force.
"THE BEST PARENT AND GUARDIAN OF LIBERTY AMONGST MEN IS TRUTH" ~ Pope Leo XIII, Immortale Dei

“When learned men begin to use their reason, then I generally discover that they haven’t got any.” - G. K. Chesterton

MSantor is not a man of sound reason. Savages have always preferred the club for they know that they are powerless against the pen. But who is the greater fool - the savage or the one that gives him power? May Truth rebuke you.
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Parastriker
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Marschall
Mar 16 2014, 08:17 AM
Quote:
 
Even if we invest in are-denial capabilities to scare off the Chinese, they would just ignore it since they are confident in their own capabilities. The only option then left to us in that regard would be firing the first shot, making the situation look like an "Israel-threatens-Iran" albeit we certainly wouldn't had the capabilities of Israel.

Although AShMs are good options, they're not necessarily best options.


Sir para, the reason why China can afford to ignore us right now is because we are lagging behind due to decades of inaction.
Anti-ship missiles and SAMs have to be purchased and installed in such a manner that Philippine territory facing the West Philippine Sea is adequately protected.
Does this mean, we have to shoot? No, it doesn't. It will mean that if the ChiCom enter out territory again, we can make sure that none of their actual military (as opposed to the white-painted vessels that we can match with our PCG) will enter either.
If one is to suggest that we should not prioritize access-denial, then we might as well hand everything over to the ChiCom straight away: the Chinese want the whole of the area: they are not even hiding that fact. So, to delay more, means to let things go further out of hand. With China's disputes with Japan and other SE-Asian nations, right now is the best time to install such platforms. And at this point in time, I do not believe that China would attack: for the very reason that other states in the region are closely following China's moves. But wait longer, and the situation might change further in China's favour.

Philippine foreign policy in this regard is similar to our the PAF: too much air, not enough force.
You really didn't get my point, did you?

What I am trying to say is this; even if we have the weapons, the Chinese aren't going to be scared of the area-denial strategy because they are confident of their own capabilities. It means that if the push comes to a shove for them, China will send military ships to the region, missiles or no missiles. They are very daring and very confident to the point I might say overconfident. This thinking of theirs is fueled by their "victories" at Korea, U.S.' humiliation at Vietnam and their own economic superiority. Nothing can stop their decisions except by their own consideration.

TL;DR: Kapal-muks sila.
Success through information, victory through disinformation.

"Good leaders make efficient followers. Great leaders make good followers. But true leaders make leaders out of mere followers."

"Measuring the intelligence of a common internet user is as easy as looking at his/her grammar."
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Marschall
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Parastriker
Mar 16 2014, 08:25 AM
Marschall
Mar 16 2014, 08:17 AM

Quoting limited to 2 levels deep
You really didn't get my point, did you?

What I am trying to say is this; even if we have the weapons, the Chinese aren't going to be scared of the area-denial strategy because they are confident of their own capabilities. It means that if the push comes to a shove for them, China will send military ships to the region, missiles or no missiles. They are very daring and very confident to the point I might say overconfident. This thinking of theirs is fueled by their "victories" at Korea, U.S.' humiliation at Vietnam and their own economic superiority. Nothing can stop their decisions except by their own consideration.

TL;DR: Kapal-muks sila.
Oh I got your point, all right. I simply disagree with it: as I have stated: the ChiCom are not that dumb to engage in a military confrontation where they know that doing that in the South might lead to an action from Japan in the North. While the RP really is no match for China, China is not that foolish so as to risk a situation in which Japan, Vietnam, et cetera might join in to finally rid themselves of the bully.

"THE BEST PARENT AND GUARDIAN OF LIBERTY AMONGST MEN IS TRUTH" ~ Pope Leo XIII, Immortale Dei

“When learned men begin to use their reason, then I generally discover that they haven’t got any.” - G. K. Chesterton

MSantor is not a man of sound reason. Savages have always preferred the club for they know that they are powerless against the pen. But who is the greater fool - the savage or the one that gives him power? May Truth rebuke you.
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Parastriker
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Marschall
Mar 16 2014, 09:36 AM
Parastriker
Mar 16 2014, 08:25 AM

Quoting limited to 2 levels deepKapal-muks sila.
Oh I got your point, all right. I simply disagree with it: as I have stated: the ChiCom are not that dumb to engage in a military confrontation where they know that doing that in the South might lead to an action from Japan in the North. While the RP really is no match for China, China is not that foolish so as to risk a situation in which Japan, Vietnam, et cetera might join in to finally rid themselves of the bully.

China can wage two war at the same time in the South and in the North, since though WPS is far away from the Chinese mainland, the Senkakus aren't. It's barely 400+ km from Wenzou, China and then some more from Shanghai, China's largest port. Even China's outdated Romeo-class subs can go there.
Success through information, victory through disinformation.

"Good leaders make efficient followers. Great leaders make good followers. But true leaders make leaders out of mere followers."

"Measuring the intelligence of a common internet user is as easy as looking at his/her grammar."
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Marschall
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Parastriker
Mar 16 2014, 12:16 PM
Marschall
Mar 16 2014, 09:36 AM

Quoting limited to 2 levels deepKapal-muks sila.
China can wage two war at the same time in the South and in the North, since though WPS is far away from the Chinese mainland, the Senkakus aren't. It's barely 400+ km from Wenzou, China and then some more from Shanghai, China's largest port. Even China's outdated Romeo-class subs can go there.
This is what you think: a two-front war involving the RP and Japan will get the US involved - directly or indirectly. And this is something that China - at least right now - would not risk. Unless, of course, the US somehow gets entangled in a different region (e.g. in Ukraine) and the US-blocking card is thereby diminished.

Further, the Japanese Navy and Air-Force are - on their own - still a force to contend with, which China cannot just brush away.

And in such an event, I would assume it highly probably for Vietnam to take the chance to retake its territories occupied by China whilst China is busy. So, that'd be a war of 3 fronts now.

China wants to divide and conquer: hence the "bilateral" talks: pushing enemies together would be the stupidest move on their side right now. So if China is indeed over-confident, this can play out in our favour - that is, if our politicians fast-tracked the eaflier mentioned strategy that should've been in place a long time ago already.
"THE BEST PARENT AND GUARDIAN OF LIBERTY AMONGST MEN IS TRUTH" ~ Pope Leo XIII, Immortale Dei

“When learned men begin to use their reason, then I generally discover that they haven’t got any.” - G. K. Chesterton

MSantor is not a man of sound reason. Savages have always preferred the club for they know that they are powerless against the pen. But who is the greater fool - the savage or the one that gives him power? May Truth rebuke you.
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