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Reports: China plans to seize Pag-Asa Island this year
Topic Started: Jan 13 2014, 02:03 PM (7,867 Views)
Andres Boning
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@Para,

The point of my suggestion is for PH to have the capability to secure and protect Pag-asa Island and nearby territories, if we keep on thinking on having the same mind set, like what if they get mad and so and so.. or be afraid and hesitate all the time, we will be bullied for the rest of our lives.

Remember that Pag-asa Island has an existing Marine Base w/ airfield, structural buildings that needs to be upgraded/ Modernized or fortified, so that would be the main reason for the plan.

It will only need one or two hangars, one that can accommodate turbo prop AC/ LCA fighter in future and the other for a helicopter hangar, if an air tower can be built and exist on an Aircraft Carrier which is 10 times smaller than this Island, then there's no problem for PH to build one.

There's a big difference between sending or deploying a warship to the area that can be seen as offensive, than having an Island Municipality w/ an existing Military base that must be always secured at all times, like how you would secure a small Country, for defensive purposes.

Any external threats, invasion on Pag-asa Island which is part of Municipality of Palawan would mean as an act of war against the Republic of the Philippines.

I would also add (4-6) RHB Fast Boats armed w/ M-134 MG's or 50 cal. to secure and protect the shallow waters around the area and the local fishermen.


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Parastriker
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Marschall
Jan 18 2014, 02:25 AM
Parastriker
Jan 18 2014, 12:13 AM

Quoting limited to 2 levels deep the SPOILER to China's "9 dash claim plan"....

Yes, it will cost much less maintaining, it's unsinkable and has a very long service life if compared to a 3000 ton Frigate or Destroyer.

It will only need the ff.

-to construct an Air Tower, Base w/ facilities, hangars, warehouses, a medium oil/gas depot
-Air and Surface Search Radars linked w/ Coast Watch Station
-Extending the airfield for better to accommodate more AC's, MRFs.
-Reinforced perimeters around the area, w/ CCTVs, automated "Trident" security, spot light, motion sensors, lights, mortar bunkers, few Howitzers facing shore lines, 40mm bofor guns etc.
-(4-6) Exocet (triple loader) MM40 block 3 mobile shore batteries covered w/ Mistral Missile mobile jeep launchers.
-(8-10) Mistral Missile defence systems w/ (30) missile reserve. (jeep mounted & shoulder fired)

(2) Super Tucano or the likes for (Patrol/ Recon) or any AC under CAS program, alternate deployment from Puerto P. AB to Pag-asa Island.

(1-2) Huey's armed w/ M-134 minigun, rocket pod (Pag-asa KIG deployment only)

I don't even think will spend or burn close between $100-200M USD on this idea, w/ less the fuel cost and maintenance not to mention service life, compared to having a Frigate/ Destroyer that we'll have to pull out during a bad weather or worse a stand off.. :armyLol:

This will be indeed the "Game changer!"
With all due respect, but if we have to "dumb down" our own defense capabilities in order to appease an already aggressive state, then why not just give up? The ChiCom will demand more and more as time comes.

As per your example: your crazy neighbour will soon realize that you are afraid and will appease him in order to avoid any conflict. This will embolden him to demand even more: one inch at a time.

Besides, everyone else is beefing up their defenses, only we aren't.

What we do in our territory is our concern. And no other nation can dictate to us what we do in our own country provided it does not conflict with international law
I never said that we dumb down our own defense capabilities. What I implied was a defense that would not clearly escalate the current situation.

As much as I personally want a robust defense for the Philippines, doing it with the cost of starting a war would certainly be not palatable. Think of the Cold War and the perceived "missile gap" and look how it culminated into a Cuban Missile crisis; nobody stepped a foot back until some sort of escalation happened, and that's with a sane American and Soviet leader.

Success through information, victory through disinformation.

"Good leaders make efficient followers. Great leaders make good followers. But true leaders make leaders out of mere followers."

"Measuring the intelligence of a common internet user is as easy as looking at his/her grammar."
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Lyndon
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Parastriker
Jan 16 2014, 05:57 PM
jimsyfelicenmacawile@yahoo.com
Jan 16 2014, 09:32 AM
Why we belittle ourselves in depending our country? Russia vs Afghanistan, Vietnam vs France & USA. These countries fought that with less superior weapons but won the war. Some of the suggestion about bunkers, defense missile, no of artilery, etc. The best weapon is Intelligence. I know Filipinos are great in getting intelligence so if they knew that an attack was a tactical plan like 1995 mischief occupation, 2013 st thomas shoal, 2014 PAGASA invasion? If there is a pattern, I think, what we can do send a handful 20 persons Highly specialized weapon, send to Hainan, China destroy there Vessel and armaments in a covert operation. This is only to delay the arrival, inform our allies, USA and Japan about the situation. Better to plan now our defensive strategy like stock of machine gun, arm-surface to missile, bazooka that can hit far away vessel & tank. Many snipers. I remember the movie that came from history the "Enemy of the gates" wherein russian fought only with sniper versus tanks, airplane, & artillery. As, I watch the movie, I am so inspired to give hell to China if they tried. I am willing to give them a headache and held the island in defensive mode. The ISRAEL and HESBOLAH wherein they fought and the Israel did not move forward and remain to Southern Lebanon. We must have that mind set for them not to engage and realize that fighting us will entail delay.
Think. Now.

I normally pass on or ignore these statements of a newcomer here, but the fact that you openly suggest war, or worse, preemptive strike, so passionately as a viable option, hits me personally. Those movies all about war? They could never tell how horrible war really is.

Enter military service and request to be stationed in Central Luzon, preferably near suspected NPA hideouts. If your request is granted, come back here after you survived your first three tours and tell us if you still support this statement you have.

:btt:
Central luzon? Then why the component battalions of 7ID are all over mindanao? Off topic but need to inform much of us that all our decorated officers and EPs got their combat experience here in mindanao. I can tell that two battalions from 7id are here, in is in cotabato and one is in davao region to gain experience from both moro and npa tactics...thats the only info i could share.

Regarding with the chinese agression, militarily its indefensible, how many times we heard our top brass remindind the troops that "unang-una wala tayong iputok, second, the best orders that we can give in case of attack is " take care of yourselves". Since the early 90s, our only defense for now is diplomacy..

With regard to the movies citing afghanistan and vietnam, those countries were taken very quick and the guerrila movement of the patriots took the enemies little by little, that is not applicable to our island territories.
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seWer Rat
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amateur sewer cleaner

What If China Did Invade Pag-asa Island?

An invasion of Pag-asa Island by Chinese forces would certainly be a tragic mistake for China.


By Carl Thayer
January 16, 2014

In the midst of the furor over Hainan province’s new fishing regulations covering nearly sixty percent of the South China Sea, an unnamed Chinese writer penned an article in the Chinese-language publication Qianzhan (Prospects) arguing that China would recover Zhongye Island by force during 2014 as part of a long-term naval expansion plan.

The article likely would have attracted little attention outside China until a summary was translated into English by Chan Kai Yee (who is now often mistakenly listed as the original piece’s author). The summary was published by the China Daily Mail on January 13 under the headline, “China and the Philippines: The reason why a battle for Zhongye (Pag-asa) Island seems unavoidable.”

It is common for retired Chinese military officers and civilian ultranationalists to write about the South China Sea and threaten the Philippines and Vietnam with military action for “stealing” Chinese territory. The Qianzhan article cites unnamed “experts” that the People’s Liberation Army Navy has drawn up a detailed combat plan to seize Zhongye Island this year because of its strategic significance.

Zhongye is better known as Thitu Island or Pag-asa in Tagalog. It is the second largest island in the Spratlys, estimated to cover an area of 37.2 hectares (or 0.14 square miles/0.36 square kilometers). Itu Aba is the largest of the islands in the archipelago and covers an area of 46 hectares in size. It is occupied by Taiwan.

xxx
How plausible is the Qianzhan‘s scenario?

China could easily achieve strategic surprise and seize Pag-asa Island. China could disguise an invasion force as a flotilla engaged in routine naval exercises in the South China Sea. In March-April last year, for example, China assembled a small flotilla to conduct combat training exercises in the South China Sea.

The flotilla comprised the modern amphibious assault ship Jinggangshan, two guided missile frigates and a guided missile destroyer. When the flotilla reached the waters surrounding Mischief Reef, Chinese state television showed pictures of People’s Liberation Army marines in hovercraft storming the beach of a Chinese-occupied islet supported by armed helicopters.

A similar flotilla could set sail ostensibly to undertake normal combat training exercises. It could achieve strategic surprise by veering off suddenly and invading Pag-asa. The Philippines would have little or no warning time to prepare to its defense. The island would probably be taken in a few hours or less.

This scenario assumes that U.S. intelligence and its associated national technical means failed to detect signs of China’s preparations in advance, thus providing no warning time to take action to deter China. China’s seizure of Pag-asa could be expected to follow some signs of deteriorating relations between China and the Philippines or a worsening security situation in the region. These developments might signal a change in China’s intent. This would normally trigger a closer look at Chinese naval and air activities by U.S. intelligence.

China’s seizure of Pag-asa Island would be an act of war. Currently, the Armed Forces of the Philippines would be unable to mount any meaningful response. Chinese destroyers and frigates would provide air defense if the Philippines scrambled jet fighters from the nearest air base on Palawan Island, over 480 km distant. The Philippine Navy would be woefully outgunned.

The Philippines would immediately seek consultations with the United States under their Mutual Defense Treaty to work out a response.

The political fallout from seizing Pag-asa would be a huge set back for Chinese diplomacy. ASEAN would likely adopt an uncompromising political position and demand the immediate withdrawal of Chinese forces. ASEAN would receive political backing from the international community. Chinese aggression could even be raised at the United Nation,; but China would veto any discussion by the Security Council.

China’s actions in seizing Pag-asa Island would set off a race by claimant states to beef up the defense of their islands. This would likely include increased combat air patrols, anti-shipping exercises, and the deployment of conventional submarines. Several of the larger islands could be expected to house anti-ship cruise missiles.

It is regrettable that Qianzhan’s conflict scenario, like so much commentary churned out by retired Chinese military officers and ultranationalists, does not go beyond the bravado of acclaiming a swift Chinese victory to consider the costs of such action to China’s international standing, damage to its economy, and the risks of escalating military conflict.

Many other Chinese writers and analysts argue in support of China’s peaceful rise and support President Xi Jinping’s initiative for a China-ASEAN Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation. These writers and analysts should criticize the hawkish views by retired military commentators and ultranationalist writers for being counterproductive to China’s longer-term interests.

The Philippines is to be congratulated for not rising to the bait. Official spokesmen declined to comment on an article they claimed was unofficial and unverified. Chinese media have already denied the veracity of the report.

source
To avoid criticism, write nothing, say nothing, do nothing, BE NOTHING.
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Andres Boning
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Quote:
 
The Philippines is to be congratulated for not rising to the bait.


-this is the missing part- > little do we know..?
"for they will come like a thief in the night!"

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Hong Nam
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Bought by China

"To catch a thief prowling in the night is easier than stopping the mob from breaking down the door in broad daylight." - Manuel Goded Llopis

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Constructions Mecaniques de Normandie - C Sword 90



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pachador


one of the five(5) so-called "combat tanks" reported in the 1980s in Pagasa island. we know of course, they were the LVTH6. This is their condition today camouflaged by vegetation ;)
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other photos here;
http://malate.wordpress.com/knockaround/pagasa-island/

Edited by pachador, Jan 31 2014, 02:00 AM.
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