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Reports: China plans to seize Pag-Asa Island this year
Topic Started: Jan 13 2014, 02:03 PM (7,869 Views)
superman
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jimsyfelicenmacawile@yahoo.com
Jan 16 2014, 09:32 AM
Why we belittle ourselves in depending our country? Russia vs Afghanistan, Vietnam vs France & USA. These countries fought that with less superior weapons but won the war. Some of the suggestion about bunkers, defense missile, no of artilery, etc. The best weapon is Intelligence. I know Filipinos are great in getting intelligence so if they knew that an attack was a tactical plan like 1995 mischief occupation, 2013 st thomas shoal, 2014 PAGASA invasion? If there is a pattern, I think, what we can do send a handful 20 persons Highly specialized weapon, send to Hainan, China destroy there Vessel and armaments in a covert operation. This is only to delay the arrival, inform our allies, USA and Japan about the situation. Better to plan now our defensive strategy like stock of machine gun, arm-surface to missile, bazooka that can hit far away vessel & tank. Many snipers. I remember the movie that came from history the "Enemy of the gates" wherein russian fought only with sniper versus tanks, airplane, & artillery. As, I watch the movie, I am so inspired to give hell to China if they tried. I am willing to give them a headache and held the island in defensive mode. The ISRAEL and HESBOLAH wherein they fought and the Israel did not move forward and remain to Southern Lebanon. We must have that mind set for them not to engage and realize that fighting us will entail delay.
Hold your horses my friend reality is no fiction, Don't put too many movies on your mind, It aint no games it must be better than that, As an ordinary civilian I hope you are. Real war is more than Yolanda and 7.2 earthquake please don't wish for it, We already suffered from WW2 and saw the consequence we saw the Vietnam war and it's hell I would rather exhaust all peace effort and diplomatic solution that immerse to this cathastrophe of hell.
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Parastriker
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jimsyfelicenmacawile@yahoo.com
Jan 16 2014, 09:32 AM
Why we belittle ourselves in depending our country? Russia vs Afghanistan, Vietnam vs France & USA. These countries fought that with less superior weapons but won the war. Some of the suggestion about bunkers, defense missile, no of artilery, etc. The best weapon is Intelligence. I know Filipinos are great in getting intelligence so if they knew that an attack was a tactical plan like 1995 mischief occupation, 2013 st thomas shoal, 2014 PAGASA invasion? If there is a pattern, I think, what we can do send a handful 20 persons Highly specialized weapon, send to Hainan, China destroy there Vessel and armaments in a covert operation. This is only to delay the arrival, inform our allies, USA and Japan about the situation. Better to plan now our defensive strategy like stock of machine gun, arm-surface to missile, bazooka that can hit far away vessel & tank. Many snipers. I remember the movie that came from history the "Enemy of the gates" wherein russian fought only with sniper versus tanks, airplane, & artillery. As, I watch the movie, I am so inspired to give hell to China if they tried. I am willing to give them a headache and held the island in defensive mode. The ISRAEL and HESBOLAH wherein they fought and the Israel did not move forward and remain to Southern Lebanon. We must have that mind set for them not to engage and realize that fighting us will entail delay.
Think. Now.

I normally pass on or ignore these statements of a newcomer here, but the fact that you openly suggest war, or worse, preemptive strike, so passionately as a viable option, hits me personally. Those movies all about war? They could never tell how horrible war really is.

Enter military service and request to be stationed in Central Luzon, preferably near suspected NPA hideouts. If your request is granted, come back here after you survived your first three tours and tell us if you still support this statement you have.

:btt:
Success through information, victory through disinformation.

"Good leaders make efficient followers. Great leaders make good followers. But true leaders make leaders out of mere followers."

"Measuring the intelligence of a common internet user is as easy as looking at his/her grammar."
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Hong Nam
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Bought by China

Chest thumping and bravado - doesn't win wars. In this case this your preposterous idea is going to start one. One that you can't win.

jimsyfelicenmacawile@yahoo.com
Jan 16 2014, 09:32 AM
"Inform our allies, USA and Japan about the situation."

Let me get this straight... You plan a preemptive strike then run to the Japanese and Americans for starting a fight? Genius. When you start a fight, you make sure you can finish it on your own. That's how it is supposed to be.

May I suggest that you read your MDT with the USA before you put yourself into a hole?

It's better to come in "informed" in these forums rather than with "guns blazing".


Edited by Hong Nam, Jan 16 2014, 08:17 PM.

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Constructions Mecaniques de Normandie - C Sword 90



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Marschall
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jimsyfelicenmacawile@yahoo.com
Jan 16 2014, 09:32 AM
Why we belittle ourselves in depending our country? Russia vs Afghanistan, Vietnam vs France & USA. These countries fought that with less superior weapons but won the war. Some of the suggestion about bunkers, defense missile, no of artilery, etc. The best weapon is Intelligence. I know Filipinos are great in getting intelligence so if they knew that an attack was a tactical plan like 1995 mischief occupation, 2013 st thomas shoal, 2014 PAGASA invasion? If there is a pattern, I think, what we can do send a handful 20 persons Highly specialized weapon, send to Hainan, China destroy there Vessel and armaments in a covert operation. This is only to delay the arrival, inform our allies, USA and Japan about the situation. Better to plan now our defensive strategy like stock of machine gun, arm-surface to missile, bazooka that can hit far away vessel & tank. Many snipers. I remember the movie that came from history the "Enemy of the gates" wherein russian fought only with sniper versus tanks, airplane, & artillery. As, I watch the movie, I am so inspired to give hell to China if they tried. I am willing to give them a headache and held the island in defensive mode. The ISRAEL and HESBOLAH wherein they fought and the Israel did not move forward and remain to Southern Lebanon. We must have that mind set for them not to engage and realize that fighting us will entail delay.
Let me just add: The success of the Mujahideen in Afghanistan and the VietCong in Vietnam is because they were fighting a guerilla war in a large area of land: a war of attrition.
China is not planning to attempt to invade and occupy the Philippines, instead the talk is of a very small island and a limited area.
There's no guerilla warfare to be waged on a wee island.

"THE BEST PARENT AND GUARDIAN OF LIBERTY AMONGST MEN IS TRUTH" ~ Pope Leo XIII, Immortale Dei

“When learned men begin to use their reason, then I generally discover that they haven’t got any.” - G. K. Chesterton

MSantor is not a man of sound reason. Savages have always preferred the club for they know that they are powerless against the pen. But who is the greater fool - the savage or the one that gives him power? May Truth rebuke you.
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matrix
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What If China Did Invade Pag-asa Island?

An invasion of Pag-asa Island by Chinese forces would certainly be a tragic mistake for China.


By Carl Thayer
January 16, 2014

In the midst of the furor over Hainan province’s new fishing regulations covering nearly sixty percent of the South China Sea, an unnamed Chinese writer penned an article in the Chinese-language publication Qianzhan (Prospects) arguing that China would recover Zhongye Island by force during 2014 as part of a long-term naval expansion plan.

The article likely would have attracted little attention outside China until a summary was translated into English by Chan Kai Yee (who is now often mistakenly listed as the original piece’s author). The summary was published by the China Daily Mail on January 13 under the headline, “China and the Philippines: The reason why a battle for Zhongye (Pag-asa) Island seems unavoidable.”

It is common for retired Chinese military officers and civilian ultranationalists to write about the South China Sea and threaten the Philippines and Vietnam with military action for “stealing” Chinese territory. The Qianzhan article cites unnamed “experts” that the People’s Liberation Army Navy has drawn up a detailed combat plan to seize Zhongye Island this year because of its strategic significance.

Zhongye is better known as Thitu Island or Pag-asa in Tagalog. It is the second largest island in the Spratlys, estimated to cover an area of 37.2 hectares (or 0.14 square miles/0.36 square kilometers). Itu Aba is the largest of the islands in the archipelago and covers an area of 46 hectares in size. It is occupied by Taiwan.

Pag-asa Island lies exposed in the upper northwest quadrant of the Spratlys at the outer boundary of islands and features forming the archipelago. To its west lies the open South China Sea.

Pag-asa Island is designated a town belonging to the Philippine municipality of Kalayaan. It boasts a civilian population of nearly two hundred. Pag-asa contains a number of structures including a municipal building, a community hall, health center, nursery school, water plant, communications tower and an airstrip.

The airstrip, known as Rancudo Airfield, is 1,400 meters in length and services both civilian and military aircraft, including the Philippine Air Force’s C-130 cargo plane. In March 2011, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Eduardo Oban announced plans to upgrade the airfield and repair army barracks. About fifty AFP soldiers are stationed on Pag-asa.

As the article noted, control over Zhongye Island would enable China to exert control over a vast expanse of the South China Sea if it constructed naval and air bases there. The author argued, “the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the [USS] Ford, costs $12.8 billion to build but only has a deck area of 0.026 square km. An air base established on Zhongye Island will be a dozen times larger and cost much less, but it is unsinkable and has a very long service life.”

How plausible is the Qianzhan‘s scenario?

China could easily achieve strategic surprise and seize Pag-asa Island. China could disguise an invasion force as a flotilla engaged in routine naval exercises in the South China Sea. In March-April last year, for example, China assembled a small flotilla to conduct combat training exercises in the South China Sea.

The flotilla comprised the modern amphibious assault ship Jinggangshan, two guided missile frigates and a guided missile destroyer. When the flotilla reached the waters surrounding Mischief Reef, Chinese state television showed pictures of People’s Liberation Army marines in hovercraft storming the beach of a Chinese-occupied islet supported by armed helicopters.

A similar flotilla could set sail ostensibly to undertake normal combat training exercises. It could achieve strategic surprise by veering off suddenly and invading Pag-asa. The Philippines would have little or no warning time to prepare to its defense. The island would probably be taken in a few hours or less.

This scenario assumes that U.S. intelligence and its associated national technical means failed to detect signs of China’s preparations in advance, thus providing no warning time to take action to deter China. China’s seizure of Pag-asa could be expected to follow some signs of deteriorating relations between China and the Philippines or a worsening security situation in the region. These developments might signal a change in China’s intent. This would normally trigger a closer look at Chinese naval and air activities by U.S. intelligence.

China’s seizure of Pag-asa Island would be an act of war. Currently, the Armed Forces of the Philippines would be unable to mount any meaningful response. Chinese destroyers and frigates would provide air defense if the Philippines scrambled jet fighters from the nearest air base on Palawan Island, over 480 km distant. The Philippine Navy would be woefully outgunned.

The Philippines would immediately seek consultations with the United States under their Mutual Defense Treaty to work out a response.

The political fallout from seizing Pag-asa would be a huge set back for Chinese diplomacy. ASEAN would likely adopt an uncompromising political position and demand the immediate withdrawal of Chinese forces. ASEAN would receive political backing from the international community. Chinese aggression could even be raised at the United Nation,; but China would veto any discussion by the Security Council.

China’s actions in seizing Pag-asa Island would set off a race by claimant states to beef up the defense of their islands. This would likely include increased combat air patrols, anti-shipping exercises, and the deployment of conventional submarines. Several of the larger islands could be expected to house anti-ship cruise missiles.

It is regrettable that Qianzhan’s conflict scenario, like so much commentary churned out by retired Chinese military officers and ultranationalists, does not go beyond the bravado of acclaiming a swift Chinese victory to consider the costs of such action to China’s international standing, damage to its economy, and the risks of escalating military conflict.

Many other Chinese writers and analysts argue in support of China’s peaceful rise and support President Xi Jinping’s initiative for a China-ASEAN Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation. These writers and analysts should criticize the hawkish views by retired military commentators and ultranationalist writers for being counterproductive to China’s longer-term interests.

The Philippines is to be congratulated for not rising to the bait. Official spokesmen declined to comment on an article they claimed was unofficial and unverified. Chinese media have already denied the veracity of the report.

Diplomat

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Andres Boning
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As the article noted, control over Zhongye Island would enable China to exert control over a vast expanse of the South China Sea if it constructed naval and air bases there. The author argued, “the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the [USS] Ford, costs $12.8 billion to build but only has a deck area of 0.026 square km. An air base established on Zhongye Island will be a dozen times larger and cost much less, but it is unsinkable and has a very long service life.”


This is a Brilliant idea and is a NO brainer! :specool:

The Philippine Govt. w/ AFP/ DND should consider including Pag-asa island to be part of the ongoing AFP Modernization Plans, by constructing an Air and Naval Base port in the Island.

Since we consider Pag-asa as part of the Municipality of Palawan w/ Marines and Filipino Civilian families living in the Island, there shouldn't be any problems.. PH is the only Country claimant that hasn't improved or modified structures in the area compared to other claimants that built modern structures, Military bases etc.

Constructing the Island into like ala USS Ford "aircraft carrier" will definitely improve our capability and advantage in monitoring and control over WPS and other PH territories, it will definitely be the best plan, the SPOILER to China's "9 dash claim plan"....

Yes, it will cost much less maintaining, it's unsinkable and has a very long service life if compared to a 3000 ton Frigate or Destroyer.

It will only need the ff.

-to construct an Air Tower, Base w/ facilities, hangars, warehouses, a medium oil/gas depot
-Air and Surface Search Radars linked w/ Coast Watch Station
-Extending the airfield for better to accommodate more AC's, MRFs.
-Reinforced perimeters around the area, w/ CCTVs, automated "Trident" security, spot light, motion sensors, lights, mortar bunkers, few Howitzers facing shore lines, 40mm bofor guns etc.
-(4-6) Exocet (triple loader) MM40 block 3 mobile shore batteries covered w/ Mistral Missile mobile jeep launchers.
-(8-10) Mistral Missile defence systems w/ (30) missile reserve. (jeep mounted & shoulder fired)

(2) Super Tucano or the likes for (Patrol/ Recon) or any AC under CAS program, alternate deployment from Puerto P. AB to Pag-asa Island.

(1-2) Huey's armed w/ M-134 minigun, rocket pod (Pag-asa KIG deployment only)

I don't even think will spend or burn close between $100-200M USD on this idea, w/ less the fuel cost and maintenance not to mention service life, compared to having a Frigate/ Destroyer that we'll have to pull out during a bad weather or worse a stand off.. :armyLol:

This will be indeed the "Game changer!" :armywink:

IMO, acquiring (2) Harriers would be another great option as well and build landing pads in other Controlled Islands in the future.
Edited by Andres Boning, Jan 17 2014, 11:25 PM.
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Parastriker
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Andres Boning
Jan 17 2014, 11:23 PM
Quote:
 
As the article noted, control over Zhongye Island would enable China to exert control over a vast expanse of the South China Sea if it constructed naval and air bases there. The author argued, “the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the [USS] Ford, costs $12.8 billion to build but only has a deck area of 0.026 square km. An air base established on Zhongye Island will be a dozen times larger and cost much less, but it is unsinkable and has a very long service life.”


This is a Brilliant idea and is a NO brainer! :specool:

The Philippine Govt. w/ AFP/ DND should consider including Pag-asa island to be part of the ongoing AFP Modernization Plans, by constructing an Air and Naval Base port in the Island.

Since we consider Pag-asa as part of the Municipality of Palawan w/ Marines and Filipino Civilian families living in the Island, there shouldn't be any problems.. PH is the only Country claimant that hasn't improved or modified structures in the area compared to other claimants that built modern structures, Military bases etc.

Constructing the Island into like ala USS Ford "aircraft carrier" will definitely improve our capability and advantage in monitoring and control over WPS and other PH territories, it will definitely be the best plan, the SPOILER to China's "9 dash claim plan"....

Yes, it will cost much less maintaining, it's unsinkable and has a very long service life if compared to a 3000 ton Frigate or Destroyer.

It will only need the ff.

-to construct an Air Tower, Base w/ facilities, hangars, warehouses, a medium oil/gas depot
-Air and Surface Search Radars linked w/ Coast Watch Station
-Extending the airfield for better to accommodate more AC's, MRFs.
-Reinforced perimeters around the area, w/ CCTVs, automated "Trident" security, spot light, motion sensors, lights, mortar bunkers, few Howitzers facing shore lines, 40mm bofor guns etc.
-(4-6) Exocet (triple loader) MM40 block 3 mobile shore batteries covered w/ Mistral Missile mobile jeep launchers.
-(8-10) Mistral Missile defence systems w/ (30) missile reserve. (jeep mounted & shoulder fired)

(2) Super Tucano or the likes for (Patrol/ Recon) or any AC under CAS program, alternate deployment from Puerto P. AB to Pag-asa Island.

(1-2) Huey's armed w/ M-134 minigun, rocket pod (Pag-asa KIG deployment only)

I don't even think will spend or burn close between $100-200M USD on this idea, w/ less the fuel cost and maintenance not to mention service life, compared to having a Frigate/ Destroyer that we'll have to pull out during a bad weather or worse a stand off.. :armyLol:

This will be indeed the "Game changer!" :armywink:

IMO, acquiring (2) Harriers would be another great option as well and build landing pads in other Controlled Islands in the future.
I shall humor you.


Now, your proposed plan would be viable, if not for the current political situation.

Let me put it the problem this way; let us say that you have a war-crazed veteran as your neighbor, and he is suspicious about everything that happens in the neighborhood. Also, he has enough guns to make Asiong Salonga look like a BB Gun collector and the actual know-how to use them. Now, let's say that you purchase your own gun, just a small .45 ACP pistol, for your own safety since you are not that trustful of your neighbor. Now, your said war-crazed veteran neighbor sees this as an attempt to kill him, and he preempts you and shoots you in your own home while your peacefully eating your dinner.

Get the picture? Although we do need to defend our rights and sovereignty, we don't have to do it in a way that might tick off the Chinese to preemption, unless we are so sure that the Americans will stay at our side, no matter what the situation may be. Defense is good, but defense that provokes an attack is foolish.


Success through information, victory through disinformation.

"Good leaders make efficient followers. Great leaders make good followers. But true leaders make leaders out of mere followers."

"Measuring the intelligence of a common internet user is as easy as looking at his/her grammar."
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Uruzu
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Take a look at this satellite map. Look at the size of the island compared to those of the houses.

The island is really really small.

It will be quite a challenge to construct even proper air base on it. You need (as mentioned by previous posters) ammo dumps . fuel depots . hangers etc.

No space for that considering there are over 200 civilians living there. Major safety risk . and noise pollution to them if these facilities are all concentrated in such a small area.

I suppose you can station a small Tucano detachment . But any jet powered planes (MRF etc) is a no no. Unless you want the residents to abandon the island.

------

I was thinking that there should also be a PCG station on the island , with at least several PCG vessels permanently stationed there. Plus a couple SAR helicopters. That way the PCG can safeguard Filipino fishing vessels around the area.

But then I noticed how shallow the waters around the Island are.



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Uruzu
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Red = Dock
Green = Area for air station?

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Marschall
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Parastriker
Jan 18 2014, 12:13 AM
Andres Boning
Jan 17 2014, 11:23 PM

Quoting limited to 2 levels deep the SPOILER to China's "9 dash claim plan"....

Yes, it will cost much less maintaining, it's unsinkable and has a very long service life if compared to a 3000 ton Frigate or Destroyer.

It will only need the ff.

-to construct an Air Tower, Base w/ facilities, hangars, warehouses, a medium oil/gas depot
-Air and Surface Search Radars linked w/ Coast Watch Station
-Extending the airfield for better to accommodate more AC's, MRFs.
-Reinforced perimeters around the area, w/ CCTVs, automated "Trident" security, spot light, motion sensors, lights, mortar bunkers, few Howitzers facing shore lines, 40mm bofor guns etc.
-(4-6) Exocet (triple loader) MM40 block 3 mobile shore batteries covered w/ Mistral Missile mobile jeep launchers.
-(8-10) Mistral Missile defence systems w/ (30) missile reserve. (jeep mounted & shoulder fired)

(2) Super Tucano or the likes for (Patrol/ Recon) or any AC under CAS program, alternate deployment from Puerto P. AB to Pag-asa Island.

(1-2) Huey's armed w/ M-134 minigun, rocket pod (Pag-asa KIG deployment only)

I don't even think will spend or burn close between $100-200M USD on this idea, w/ less the fuel cost and maintenance not to mention service life, compared to having a Frigate/ Destroyer that we'll have to pull out during a bad weather or worse a stand off.. :armyLol:

This will be indeed the "Game changer!" :armywink:

IMO, acquiring (2) Harriers would be another great option as well and build landing pads in other Controlled Islands in the future.
I shall humor you.


Now, your proposed plan would be viable, if not for the current political situation.

Let me put it the problem this way; let us say that you have a war-crazed veteran as your neighbor, and he is suspicious about everything that happens in the neighborhood. Also, he has enough guns to make Asiong Salonga look like a BB Gun collector and the actual know-how to use them. Now, let's say that you purchase your own gun, just a small .45 ACP pistol, for your own safety since you are not that trustful of your neighbor. Now, your said war-crazed veteran neighbor sees this as an attempt to kill him, and he preempts you and shoots you in your own home while your peacefully eating your dinner.

Get the picture? Although we do need to defend our rights and sovereignty, we don't have to do it in a way that might tick off the Chinese to preemption, unless we are so sure that the Americans will stay at our side, no matter what the situation may be. Defense is good, but defense that provokes an attack is foolish.


With all due respect, but if we have to "dumb down" our own defense capabilities in order to appease an already aggressive state, then why not just give up? The ChiCom will demand more and more as time comes.

As per your example: your crazy neighbour will soon realize that you are afraid and will appease him in order to avoid any conflict. This will embolden him to demand even more: one inch at a time.

Besides, everyone else is beefing up their defenses, only we aren't.

What we do in our territory is our concern. And no other nation can dictate to us what we do in our own country provided it does not conflict with international law
"THE BEST PARENT AND GUARDIAN OF LIBERTY AMONGST MEN IS TRUTH" ~ Pope Leo XIII, Immortale Dei

“When learned men begin to use their reason, then I generally discover that they haven’t got any.” - G. K. Chesterton

MSantor is not a man of sound reason. Savages have always preferred the club for they know that they are powerless against the pen. But who is the greater fool - the savage or the one that gives him power? May Truth rebuke you.
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