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| Reports: China plans to seize Pag-Asa Island this year | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Jan 13 2014, 02:03 PM (7,866 Views) | |
| seWer Rat | Jan 13 2014, 02:03 PM Post #1 |
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amateur sewer cleaner
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Posted on Monday Jan 13th at 11:34am By Camille Diola MANILA, Philippines - A Chinese news network has reported that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is planning to seize the contested Pag-Asa Island in the Spratlys Group of Islands this year in what can be an explosive military confrontation. Business and strategy news platform Qianzhan (Prospects) reported that Beijing condemned the Philippines' move to deploy Air Force and naval contingents to Pag-Asa Islands early this month and called the occupation illegal and "arrogant." "According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea. The battle is aimed at recovery of the island stolen by the Philippines from China," the news site cited in its January 10 and January 9 reports. The report was in Mandarin and translated by English news site China Daily Mail, which titled the tranlated article "Chinese troops will seize Zhongye (Pag-Asa) Island back from the Philippines in 2014." The China Daily Mail said that according to Qianzhan, the Philippines' arrogance is "an intolerable insult to China" with a confidence that the United States is on its side. "There will be no invasion into Filipino territories," the report added. Qianzhan added that PLA's goal is for its troops to be stationed in the island and defend it from the Philippines' upcoming attacks. It claimed that the confrontation, to be preceded by a China-issued ultimatum to the Philippines to withdraw its personnel and facilities from the island, must only last four two hours. The report also claimed that the Chinese military has drawn plans in case the US comes to its Southeast Asian ally's aid. The Asian giant's North Sea Fleet will face the Americans and will be reinforced by the East Sea Fleet monitoring Diaoyu Islands (claimed by Japan), it added. At the height of the confrontation, the US will also be forced to finally choose sides as it has long refused to take a stand on the issue, it said. Chinese media last week had been buzzing about the Manila's decision to defend the disputed territory off the province of Palawan, which has been run by local officials. more
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| pachador | Jan 14 2014, 06:32 AM Post #2 |
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If I were to venture an opinion, Pagasa island can only be defended against full-scale attack at great cost with strong enough naval and air support(which we do not have) and/or with support from the U.S. The key is to delay the capture of Pagasa. The longer it takes to capture Pagasa, the more complications it will create for the bully, politically, economically.militarily and diplomatically. question now is, how long can it be held assuming there is no air and naval support ? we can look at similarly-sized islands that were attacked in the past, e.g. Wake island http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Wake_Island since our current armaments are similar to those for the wake island defense being relatively old.... Wake island was defended by a batallion of 450 U.S. marines and held out for a few weeks...... then factor in modern weaponry of the bully,e.g. cruise missiles, SSMs firing from their mainland etc will have an easier time saturating pagasa island. a more recent battle was the bully attack on Quemoy island which is much bigger @ 50 plus square miles and defended by over 40,000 taiwanese soldiers. the summary of the 1950s battle is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Guningtou there is also the falkland islands battles- argentina versus british interestingly, reports from the 1970s mentioned a batallion of philippine marines on pag-asa island with four 40mm bofors and five LVTH-5s, and 20mm oerlikons if my memory is correct. Note that Pagasa island is much smaller than Wake island with an area of only 37 hectares which is about 1/8 square mile only, hence its easier for the bully to score a hit with their SSM missiles before landing. we also need to realize that we can only cram so many soldiers into pagasa island, my guess is only a brigade at the most for short periods of time, and that is with its own supplies of water and food shipped in and then they need to have really strong bunkers , otherwise, they will be easy ground beef for incoming enemy SSM missile and bombs...currently, we know there is 1 marine brigade of 3 batallions in palawan which has jurisdiction over pag-asa island, The only sane reason I can think of why we are holding on to pagasa island is that the U.S. has guaranteed their support if that island is touched. otherwise it is tactically difficult to defend being too far from palawan with our current naval and air assets. otherwise, this is madness but with uncle sam helping , it is sweetness :) BTW, during the mischief crisis in 1995, the U.S. PACOM was in constant direct communication with AFP in palawan. just an FYI ;) Anyways, just for the sake of discussion, how would you defend pagasa island with current assets ?? then another scenario including assets to be delivered by 2016/2017 ?? Edited by pachador, Jan 14 2014, 07:37 AM.
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| MSantor | Jan 14 2014, 08:17 AM Post #3 |
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Mr. Sewer Rat, This topic was already posted before at this other, older thread. Please always do a search before starting a new thread. I will keep it separate for now so that this particular headline will get more focus, but I will merge it later. Thanks. PDFF Staff Edited by MSantor, Jan 14 2014, 08:18 AM.
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"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." - Henry Ford "Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill "If everyone is thinking alike, someone isn't thinking"- Gen. George S. Patton | |
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| Ayoshi | Jan 14 2014, 11:43 AM Post #4 |
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China and Philippines: The reasons why a battle for Zhongye (Pag-asa) Island seems unavoidable (chinadailymail.com)
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| Hong Nam | Jan 14 2014, 12:47 PM Post #5 |
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Bought by China
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Do you actually take this blogger - Chan Kai Yee - seriously? 1) Is he any way connected to those who make decisions? 2) Does having your own blog make you an expert? 3) Isn't internet access strictly monitored, severely restricted, and access often blocked in China? Isn't this guy a shining epitome of a 50 Cent Brigade member? "China's 50 Cent Brigade, sometimes called the 50 Cent Party, are essential professional trolls. It's their job to trawl through websites, both inside and outside of China, and monitor what the public is saying about the regime and draw the conversation away from anything critical of China by instead criticizing the United States, Western involvement in international affairs, or by pointing out the flaws of democracy. China Uncensored gets plenty of these guys. Ironic since Youtube, along with Facebook and Twitter are actually banned in China. So it's not just Sina Webio these guys are on. And since China employs 2 million of Internet monitors, more than the 1.5 million the People's Liberation Army, this is clearly a new form of cyber warfare. The weapons are hacking or virus, but a careful and systematic propaganda push. And Snoopybabe." ** Don't do him any more favours by actually listening to his excrement. It stinks bad enough... Don't make it even worse. Edited by Hong Nam, Jan 14 2014, 12:48 PM.
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![]() Constructions Mecaniques de Normandie - C Sword 90 | |
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| fernandez705 | Jan 14 2014, 03:52 PM Post #6 |
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As long as the beijing fires the first shot then the likelyness of the treaty to take effect will be high, itll be even higher since its an invasion on philippine soil/teritory. So we should make sure that our soldiers will be disciplined enough to not fire the first shot. |
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| Marschall | Jan 14 2014, 08:58 PM Post #7 |
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Be it as it may, the situation highlights an important matter: the current state of Pag-Asa island is simply indefensible. If the ChiComs were to attack tomorrow, they would use seaborne special forces coupled with air-support. How would that little island be defended by small calibre weapons? The AFP military outpost would be obliterated and the ChiComs could then land safely. As I have stated before already: Pag-Asa Island has to be turned to an island fortification that will further project the RP's defense capabilities westward - giving a greater bufferzone for the mainland (especially Palawan). So, what has to be done? - Island infrastructure has to be upgraded in such a way that amphibious assaults would be very difficult or impossible to achieve without the attacking forces sustaining heavy losses. - Air defense systems have to be put up on the island: including CIWS or at least 4 automated units of the Oerlikon 35mm twin cannons. - Medium- to long-range offensive weapons have to be put on the island against surface targets (ships, boats): missiles, cannons, rockets further, one can cheaply make the island a hell for paratroopers by making something similar to the Rommelspargel that would entangle paratroopers: ![]() The island is defensible. But it has to be worked on. Furthermore, delaying preparations for a possible armed conflict in the area is being irresponsible. While China may not attack now, it may in the future - when its military power is even greater. Just having some marines on the island simply is not enough. Edited by Marschall, Jan 14 2014, 09:08 PM.
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"THE BEST PARENT AND GUARDIAN OF LIBERTY AMONGST MEN IS TRUTH" ~ Pope Leo XIII, Immortale Dei “When learned men begin to use their reason, then I generally discover that they haven’t got any.” - G. K. Chesterton MSantor is not a man of sound reason. Savages have always preferred the club for they know that they are powerless against the pen. But who is the greater fool - the savage or the one that gives him power? May Truth rebuke you. | |
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| Parastriker | Jan 14 2014, 09:32 PM Post #8 |
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Those wire traps can easily be disarmed by shellfire; destroy the posts and the the ropes fall. And besides, why use paratroopers when you can use sea-based transportation ala Normandy Beach Landings? However, although is true that Pag-Asa island is indefensible at a military point of view, it doesn't mean that it doesn't have a protection of its own. Seeing that Pag-Asa Island has civilians in addition to military personnel, therefore it could be concluded that making an attack on it make it as an attack not just to the sovereignty of the Philippines on the contested islands, it could already constitute a war of aggression, something that will definitely pull some U.N. Member states to action. Something like the Korean War, I suppose. Therefore, we could also suppose that in case evidences of an invasion is truly presented, then Pag-asa Island would be defended with our best capability, much like how the government did back at Zamboanga, only that the Navy and the Marines would be in the limelight this time. Therefore, politically, Pag-asa Island is as defended as Manila, as Laguna, as Cebu, as Davao and as any other place in the mainland. However, this defense is only effective as long as the Philippines doesn't do anything overtly threatening in China's terms, which unfortunately includes defending Pag-asa militarily. However, although infrastructure in the island itself is a credible defense, I believe in the doctrine that we must strike before the task force even sees the island itself. Acquiring an ability to strike a seaborne task force from afar is something I would personally advise to do. I remember Argentina's experience at the Falklands; when armed with proper AShM weaponry (like the Exocets the Argentinians had), any aircraft that could carry them becomes a credible threat to any seaborne task force. |
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Success through information, victory through disinformation. "Good leaders make efficient followers. Great leaders make good followers. But true leaders make leaders out of mere followers." "Measuring the intelligence of a common internet user is as easy as looking at his/her grammar." | |
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| Marschall | Jan 14 2014, 10:09 PM Post #9 |
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Sir Para, We do not know whether the ChiCom will attack by sea or from the air or both: it would depend on what would promise the better results. The point regarding the shelling is taken, but as you have pointed out: civilians are on the island, so unless the plan to level the entire island, those wires will be there to stay. The fact that Pag-Asa island is as "defensible" as any other mainland location is actually worrying: because there is not much the AFP can use against Chinese military hardware. You cannot defend yourself with an M16A1 or M16A2 against cruise-missiles, fighters jets et alii. A sophisticated defense network facing the West has to be implemented ASAP. And I agree with the doctrine of having the capability to strike the enemy at a distance. This is why, I have always wanted the AFP to acquire medium- to long-range anti-ship missiles such as the BrahMos. Currently though, we can compare our situation with that of a caveman with his club standing up against a musketeer at firing distance. |
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"THE BEST PARENT AND GUARDIAN OF LIBERTY AMONGST MEN IS TRUTH" ~ Pope Leo XIII, Immortale Dei “When learned men begin to use their reason, then I generally discover that they haven’t got any.” - G. K. Chesterton MSantor is not a man of sound reason. Savages have always preferred the club for they know that they are powerless against the pen. But who is the greater fool - the savage or the one that gives him power? May Truth rebuke you. | |
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| Maverick 13330 | Jan 14 2014, 10:28 PM Post #10 |
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Whatever defenses you put in Pag-asa island will be useless againts any chinese invasion.. Tripwire, missile or even the whole Philippine armada is nothing if the chinese wills it, it will be taken from us. The Chinese has a master plan on invading the Formosa's what more of the very small island just the size of a barangay. REALLY.. Do we really have to take this SHI TTY guy seriously. Cant we just ignore him and his article like a monkey.
Edited by Maverick 13330, Jan 14 2014, 10:29 PM.
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