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PH: We’ll Take A Stand, With Or Without US; West Philippine Sea
Topic Started: Dec 15 2012, 12:58 AM (7,935 Views)
icefrog
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wily_pest
Dec 16 2012, 09:45 PM
PHILIPPINES, STOP COUNTING YOUR PENNIES AND START SPENDING YOUR MONEY!!!!!!

1. Get those 28 European Typhoons already and get those pilots trained in Italy ASAP.

2. Get 2 squadrons of attack planes; whichever ones can be made available right away (AMX or Mirage 2000-9) and get other pilots trained in Italy or France.

3. Commandeer any old Phil. cargo ships (never mind painting them) under "eminent domain law" and assign those for Scarb. Shoal duty.

4. Get land launched Exocets from France (if the US is dragging its tail) with SAMs and buy radar guided cannons (there are many on fire sale in Europe).

Do not say we can only get one squadron and be the laughing stock of ASIA and the world. Remember, the whole world is watching! Time to wake up and shine!

USE IOU BONDS IF need be AND MAKE FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENT LATER. You need to work with ACQUISITION TEAMS each dedicated to a particular asset to EXPEDITE. GET young energetic, savvy, English-fluent managers to lead those teams.

China is about to go to the moon.
No need for IOU bonds. We only need to tap a very small % of our excess foreign reserves. Even just a couple of billion dollars to add to the P75B ($1.8B) is sufficient. Our reserves is 12 months worth of imports and debt obligations. ADB only recommends 3 months while IMF only recommends holding 6-7 months w/c is already double their previous recommendation for extra cushion in case there might be a repeat of the asian financial crisis.

$2B is just 2.4% of our current $84B reserves. Our central bank can lend $2B to DND for a ultra-low int. rates and on very long payment terms. 0.01% payable in 20-30 years. :-) Sure, we can get a soft loan from other countries like Korea and Russia for their defense articles and long-term payments from Italy for their EFT but why go through that if the BSP can do the same and give a much favorable rate and terms plus no currency fluctuations to worry about.

If we get invaded what good is that high foreign reserves if they will just pillage everything like what the Japanese did in WWII.

And let's not even depend on the Malampaya fund. Just recently there were leakage that beneficiaries of it were either missing or found out to be long dead. Ghost beneficiaries.



Edited by icefrog, Dec 16 2012, 11:32 PM.
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Santi Kampilan
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icefrog
Dec 16 2012, 11:27 PM
wily_pest
Dec 16 2012, 09:45 PM
PHILIPPINES, STOP COUNTING YOUR PENNIES AND START SPENDING YOUR MONEY!!!!!!

1. Get those 28 European Typhoons already and get those pilots trained in Italy ASAP.

2. Get 2 squadrons of attack planes; whichever ones can be made available right away (AMX or Mirage 2000-9) and get other pilots trained in Italy or France.

3. Commandeer any old Phil. cargo ships (never mind painting them) under "eminent domain law" and assign those for Scarb. Shoal duty.

4. Get land launched Exocets from France (if the US is dragging its tail) with SAMs and buy radar guided cannons (there are many on fire sale in Europe).

Do not say we can only get one squadron and be the laughing stock of ASIA and the world. Remember, the whole world is watching! Time to wake up and shine!

USE IOU BONDS IF need be AND MAKE FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENT LATER. You need to work with ACQUISITION TEAMS each dedicated to a particular asset to EXPEDITE. GET young energetic, savvy, English-fluent managers to lead those teams.

China is about to go to the moon.
No need for IOU bonds. We only need to tap a very small % of our excess foreign reserves. Even just a couple of billion dollars to add to the P75B ($1.8B) is sufficient. Our reserves is 12 months worth of imports and debt obligations. ADB only recommends 3 months while IMF only recommends holding 6-7 months w/c is already double their previous recommendation for extra cushion in case there might be a repeat of the asian financial crisis.

$2B is just 2.4% of our current $84B reserves. Our central bank can lend $2B to DND for a ultra-low int. rates and on very long payment terms. 0.01% payable in 20-30 years. :-) Sure, we can get a soft loan from other countries like Korea and Russia for their defense articles and long-term payments from Italy for their EFT but why go through that if the BSP can do the same and give a much favorable rate and terms plus no currency fluctuations to worry about.

If we get invaded what good is that high foreign reserves if they will just pillage everything like what the Japanese did in WWII.

And let's not even depend on the Malampaya fund. Just recently there were leakage that beneficiaries of it were either missing or found out to be long dead. Ghost beneficiaries.



Drastic times call for drastic measures! Ice and Wily both are spot on! It is time to make some bold moves. I just hope those in leadership will have some guts to pull some strings. Don't listen to Michele Flournoy. Even in Obama's administration there are a bunch of left leaning socialists who will appease China. She is probably upset that we are not towing right along like a puppet like before. Continue to drum up support...Japan and India for starters. Get EU, UK, Canada and Australia involved.

Ice, we may need not just 2Billion. By the time we arm the 28 EFT's it is already 2B. And PN needs a big chunk too. Even if we double or triple that, it is not going to make a dent in our reserves. If the Italian package is the winner and I had more than 2 B, for starters I would pluck down on the 28 EFT and negotiate hard to give us as freebie's the 19 AMX's that are available immediately. The rest of the radar, missiles, arms and ships can follow.

Money is coming in faster that we can imagine. We have to take advantage of it, I agree.
Edited by Santi Kampilan, Dec 17 2012, 12:51 AM.
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icefrog
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^ Let's go down to reality first and not get ahead of ourself. Convincing politicians to touch the foreign reserves is easier said than done. :-) It's smarter to start with 12 EFT (or whatever MRF they decide upon) first and stipulate in the contract for an option for more in the near future.

24 EFT1.5 is "just" $1.3B (all-in package). An additional $2B on top of the $1.8 (P75B) for a total of $3.8++ is already $2.5B more than the $1.3B needed for the 24 EFT and still have money left for the PN and Army. And I doubt our PAA has the guts to pull the trigger to buy 28 EFTs or F-16s at one go. I just don't see it. I want too but that takes guts and vision w/c I don't think they have. 12 EFT+12 AMX or 12 FA-50+12 F5s is more realistic than 24 EFTs or 24 FA-50s or F-16s. And we are talking about for the first 5 years only. A new AFP modernization budget will be enacted for the 2nd 5 years. Also, noteworthy to keep in mind is the AFP modernization budget is intended for defence article procurements only and there is a separate budget for the annual maintenance. $1.8B is actually quite decent already.
Edited by icefrog, Dec 17 2012, 05:35 AM.
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Santi Kampilan
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You'll never know if the Italians will offer us something we cannot refuse. That 1.3 B Romanian look-alike offer can offset a lot of cost because it will benefit our economy also. Its not all going to the EFT's. If presented properly, your'll never know our pea-brain politicians may bite it.
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wily_pest
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I wondered why the DND is prioritizing the purchase those Fennec helicopters which by now will be A-109s (now called light attack/recon). They must be at least $25M a piece. How will those fit in solving the the immediate problem in Scarb. Shoal when the Chinks can send Su-27s to shoot them down like flies.

They will wait and wait until they find out those EFT 1.5s have been sold to another country just like those French helicopters. And don't think the other European countries will sell them for the same price if they know now that the Phil. is in great need of it. They may add another 50% to the price, if they even want to sell theirs. The price is dictated by the demand for it vs. the supply. If the DND hasn't locked the price for those EFTs and had closed a contract, those prices can still go up. The Italians can just give them some fairy tale story as to why they have to increase its prices. Or the Chinks may pay a trade partner the EFTs via third party as for payment of import.

The in-decisions, flip-flops and wavering of the DND riles up the vendors and countries selling the products and is not good for PR. That's why the French acted the way they acted on the Fennecs' deal by showing disrespect. It is important to have good rapport with these vendors and countries when the Phil. will depend on them for defense materials and their parts and services. There will be time that you will need more of those materials and munitions when war erupts, and at a fast pace. You want them to jump for you to impress you.


The Phil. need to buy French and not just Italian bec the French have an impressive array of military products. And when pressure is applied to slow down or close supply for the Phil. bec you are "making trouble" in WPS lanes you may have one country who will continue to sell. I see the French doing that function. And I don't mean for the Phil. to kiss their behinds to be on their good side. One just need to show professionalism, seriousness and expedience in buying.

The financial experts (Icefrog and Santi) have spoken. And others have expressed their frustrations seeing their country maligned and disrespected. There are financial options to pay for a real FIRST FORCE- fighter and attack squadrons for the PAF. There is no excuse to leave the country NAKED and ridiculed time and time again.

They are also waiting for land mobile launchers for Palawan and northern Luzon, and old cargo "muscle" ships for Scarb. Shoal. They want to see action instead of talk and futile diplomacy.

MAKE YOU STAND ON WHAT? MAKE YOUR STAND ON ON A REAL AIR FORCE, AND MOBILE LAUNCHERS.
Edited by wily_pest, Dec 17 2012, 08:53 AM.
Management of many is the same as management of few. It is a matter of organization. Sun Tzu
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spearhead
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I don't think the philippine government is really serious or really threatened, because if they were, they would have done all your suggestions long time ago. I think what's going on is that Malacanyang know the fact that a military confrontation with China is non existent, and might already been dealt secretly with the help of US diplomatic efforts. This maybe a possible cause and are hidden from the public. What else we are seing are just mere politics, using the dipute to push the modernization and nothing else. Because if i am wrong, then it's an overwhelming stupidity by Malacanyang to belittle the threat in WPS by not making any drastic efforts to fully utilize their emergency funds to buy those badly needed military weapons. So keep your level headed and watch how this military politics really works, and they are really slow in acquiring those modern weapons, so obviously they are taking so much time. Therefore, there is no war that is imminent between china and the philippines.
"Men of War must learn the art of numbers or he will not know how to array his troops." - Plato

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Uruzu
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Yea getting the Eurofighters seems like a no brainer.
Yes they are lacking in A2G capability, but the most pressing need for the PAF is to have the ability to intercept hostile aircraft, and the EF (tranche 1.0) is great at that.

Like you guys, I'm also puzzled at why the government is spending so much effort over stuff like attack helicopters. The procurement should be focused on affordable frigates/corvette, fighters, maritime patrol ships, not army stuff.

There should also be a long term plan. Just obtaining 28 fighters is simply not enough. While it may not be realistic for a country like Philippine to develop its weapon systems indigenously, she should consider start producing smaller stuff (spare parts) under license, then going into larger stuff (frigates, missiles) as the industrial sector and economy develops. Of course this requires the government to invest heavily on fields like education. Whether or not the politicians have this long term vision is a different matter.

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spearhead
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One more thing, Malacanyang have also repeatedly said that the AFP is just modernizing their capabilities, not preparing for war. I don't know if they were just saying that so that not to alarm China nor incite the chicoms, but whatever it means could only spell out the word diplomacy. Because that's the only way to help bring down the tension between the claimant countries. That said, China has to understand the fact that the AFP is only doing their mandate and obligation to modernize their capabilities just like any other countries, and not preparing for war. So be patient people, myself is learning how to suck up the truth.
"Men of War must learn the art of numbers or he will not know how to array his troops." - Plato

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Uruzu
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spearhead
Dec 17 2012, 10:14 AM
One more thing, Malacanyang have also repeatedly said that the AFP is just modernizing their capabilities, not preparing for war. I don't know if they were just saying that so that not to alarm China nor incite the chicoms, but whatever it means could only spell out the word diplomacy. Because that's the only way to help bring down the tension between the claimant countries. That said, China has to understand the fact that the AFP is only doing their mandate and obligation to modernize their capabilities just like any other countries, and not preparing for war. So be patient people, myself is learning how to suck up the truth.
The past year show that diplomacy simply didn't work, while China is doing everything to up the tension.

What the Philippines, or the US are doing is not bringing down tension. It's appeasement. See what appeasement lead to, 70 years ago.
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boxster
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Contrary to public view..the issue regarding the west philippine seas is giving our president a headache..in several meetings he ask DND officials of the possibility of an attack on our ships and their readiness to defend our country..thats why if we are being impatient with acquisition he is also impatient ..because this has been a burden to him to begin with.that is the reason why the afp is asking their counterparts in the US an assurance that they will support us in the eventuality that the chicoms decides to attack or board our ships..because even if we get those 2 squadrons of efts..it will take time for our pilots to train for them..remember allthis acquisitions should have been done more than a decade ago...kaya nga ang layo ng technological gap talaga..the last time we bought brand new jet trainers was in 1992.. If only our legislative are equally supportive..alam namn natin more than half of them are brainless nimcompoops. Sana nga the 75 billion budget will be increased..sana nga pumayag nalng US to lease us even 6 MRFs ..i am conident the the US will realize they have no choice but to support us in our needs..as US Ambassador Harry Thomas said, “By the time the Aquino regime winds down, the military strength of the Philippines as supported by the United States will be formidable; any nation contemplating attack on the Philippines will have to think twice. It will be very, very costly.”
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